Weekly Global Outlook

Week of September 14–18 

  The Fed raises rates again as central banks adjust their strategies amid mixed economic signals.   Markets are navigating high interest rates, persistent inflation, and diverging economic signals. While the Fed resumed rate hikes, other economies are adjusting monetary policy to address different growth challenges.   

United States

• The Fed raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% as inflation remained elevated. Updated projections point to the possibility of another rate hike this year.

 

Europe

• The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% in a split decision, despite inflation accelerating to 3.1% in August. In Germany, the IMK raised its 2026 growth forecast from 0.6% to 1.3%, supported by stronger exports and increased government spending on defense and infrastructure.  

 

Japan

• The Bank of Japan raised rates to 1%, a 31-year high, while industrial production rose 3.9% year over year in July despite a 0.2% monthly decline.  

 

China

• Activity showed mixed signals: retail sales rose just 0.4% year over year and fixed-asset investment fell 7.2%, while industrial production grew 5.2%.  

 

Brazil

• The central bank cut the Selic rate by 25 bps to 13.75%, its fifth consecutive reduction, amid clearer signs of an economic slowdown.  

 

Mexico

• Industrial activity rose 2.4% year over year in July, its strongest performance since October 2023, driven by construction and a recovery in manufacturing.

   

“You can lose money very fast, in two months, but you very rarely make money very fast in the stock market.” — Peter Lynch

 

UPCOMING EVENTS

• In the United States, several labor market indicators will be released 09/24 

• In the United States, new home sales data will be released 09/24

 

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