Week of June 9–13
Mixed inflation data, downward growth revisions, and easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. set the tone for the week’s global economic narrative.
Here’s a brief summary of the most relevant developments across major economies in recent days:
- United States: May inflation rose just 0.1%, staying below expectations. The Fed is not expected to cut rates before September. The World Bank lowered 2025 GDP growth to 1.4%. Gold and oil rose on geopolitical tensions.
- Europe: Germany raised its 2025 growth forecast to 0.3%. An ECB policymaker said interest rates are well positioned, signaling a prolonged pause as inflation continues to ease.
- China: Exports grew 4.8% year-over-year, but those to the U.S. fell 34.5%. Annual inflation declined, and producer prices also retreated.
- Brazil: Inflation reached 0.26% in May, below the 0.33% forecast. The annual rate fell to 5.32%, reinforcing expectations of a pause in the Central Bank’s rate hike cycle.
- Mexico: Inflation climbed to 4.42% year-over-year in the second half of May, its highest level in five months. The World Bank cut its 2025 growth forecast from 1.5% to 0.2%.
Investing wisely isn’t about timing the market, but about staying informed, diversified, and avoiding impulsive decisions.
KEY UPCOMING EVENTS
- In the United States, the Fed policy announcement will take place 06/18
- In the United States, Juneteenth will be observed (market closed) 06/19
Monitor
