November 17–21
The U.S. labor market returned to the spotlight this week, while Europe maintained a stable tone and Japan showed signs of cooling. In Mexico, foreign direct investment continued to strengthen. Here are the key topics to watch.
United States:
• The economy added 119,000 jobs in September, above expectations, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%.
• The Fed remains divided, and the probability of a December rate cut currently stands at 40%.
Europe:
• Inflation remains stable near 2%, and the ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged at least through the end of 2026.
• In the UK, inflation fell to 3.6%, potentially opening the door for a rate cut by the Bank of England in December.
Japan:
• GDP fell 1.8% annualized in the third quarter, with a quarterly contraction of 0.4%.
• Exports were the main drag, reflecting a weaker external backdrop.
China:
• For the sixth consecutive month, the central bank kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged.
• The decision was in line with expectations as the economy seeks stability amid domestic challenges.
Mexico:
• FDI grew 14.5% year-over-year from January to September, surpassing $40 billion.
• Economic activity showed no change in October, both month-over-month and compared with the same month in 2024.
“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” — Warren Buffett
Key Upcoming Events:
• U.S.: Beige Book release — 11/26
• U.S.: Thanksgiving Day (market holiday) — 11/27
Monitor
