Week of July 7–11
Markets focus on trade decisions and mixed growth signals
Amid a week marked by trade tensions and uneven economic data, here are the key highlights investors will be closely monitoring:
• United States
President Trump announced a 25% tariff on products from Japan and South Korea, effective August 1. For Canada, the tariff would be 35%. He also imposed 50% tariffs on copper imports and goods from Brazil.
The Fed’s minutes revealed divided views on the timing and scale of potential rate cuts.
Q2 2025 earnings season kicks off, with S&P 500 EPS growth expected at just 4%.
• Europe
Germany’s industrial production rose 1.2% month-over-month in May, driven by the automotive and energy sectors. However, exports fell 1.4% month-over-month, including a 7.7% drop in shipments to the U.S.
The Bank of England highlighted the UK economy’s resilience despite ongoing geopolitical risks.
• China
Inflation rose 0.1% year-over-year in June, marking the first increase in five months. However, producer prices fell 3.6% annually, the lowest level since July 2023.
• Brazil
The government is planning a return to international debt markets by year-end, following two successful bond issuances this year.
President Lula responded to U.S. tariffs by announcing 50% tariffs on American products.
• Mexico
Headline inflation eased to 4.32% in June, while core inflation ticked up slightly to 4.24%.
Auto production hit a record high in June, posting 4.8% year-over-year growth.
“History offers a crucial insight about market crises: they are inevitable, painful, and ultimately surmountable.” — Shelby M.C. Davis
Important events in the next week
- U.S. inflation data – 07/15
- U.S. industrial production – 07/16
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