Key points about the Debt Ceiling
The debate in the US Congress on extending the government’s debt ceiling will be the main fiscal issue on the markets’ radar this year. On January 19, the government reached its legal debt limit of US$31.4 trillion (an all-time maximum). Therefore, we share some points that could influence the negotiations throughout this process: • […]
Annual inflation slows slightly during January
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) advanced 0.5% in January, from the 0.1% increase seen in December (the monthly figure for December was revised slightly upwards). As a result, annual inflation stood at 6.4% (vs. +6.5% in December and +6.2% estimated). Core inflation, which excludes the most volatile categories such as food and energy, accelerated by […]
Strength in employment tempers hopes of a Fed pivot
The official January jobs report showed the non-farm payroll increased by 517,000 jobs, well above consensus expectations of 190,000. In addition, the unemployment rate stood at 3.4%, the lowest since the late 1960s, while average weekly hours worked jumped from 34.4 to 34.7 in December. Finally, the JOLTS (job openings) also surprised to the upside, […]
FED: “Rise in line, although it reiterates that the increases will continue”
In its first release of the year and in line with expectations, the Fed increased the reference rate by 25bp to a range between 4.5-4.75% (the decision was unanimous), its highest level since October 2007. This decision represented a minor movement compared to the 50bp advance last December and the 4 increases of 75bp implemented […]
The strength of the Mexican peso
Against a backdrop of rapidly rising US interest rates and mounting recession fears, most currencies weakened significantly against the US dollar in 2022. However, the Mexican peso was one of the outliers, appreciating 5% in 2022 and now trading below 19 per US dollar, a level not seen since February 2020, with a 3.6% gain […]
Blackstone’s Ten Surprises for 2023
Like every year, Blackstone, one of the largest alternative investments manager with over $951 bn assets under management, published its 38th edition for their Ten Surprises for the year. Blackstone defines a Surprise as an event in which the average professional investor would assign a one-third chance of taking place, but which the asset manager […]
Expectation for 4Q22 corporate reports
The quarterly reporting season of 4Q22 is about to begin, being a factor that could influence the mood of the markets in the concise term. In this sense, analysts estimate that the S&P 500 companies would have experienced a 4.1% year-on-year contraction in their profits. If this figure is confirmed, it will mark the first […]
Fed Minutes: High Rates for “Some Time” Forward
According to the minutes of the December meeting, Fed members confirmed that they are committed to fighting inflation, so they expect to keep interest rates high until more progress is made. In this sense, they expressed the importance of maintaining a sufficiently restrictive policy given that inflation is unacceptably high. In particular, members stressed that […]
