Strong U.S. sales and growth in China stand in contrast with ongoing trade tensions.
Week of April 21–25
Market Highlights
Here’s a summary of the most relevant developments that influenced global markets this week:
United States
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that trade tensions with China could ease in the coming months, though a unilateral removal of tariffs is not under consideration.
- The IMF revised its U.S. growth forecast downward to 1.8% for 2025, from a previous estimate of 2.7%.
- Gold prices surpassed $3,500 per ounce for the first time in history.
Europe
- Economic activity in both the eurozone and the U.K. stagnated, impacted by trade-related uncertainty.
- Nevertheless, Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index posted an unexpected increase in April, reflecting improved sentiment.
China
- For the sixth consecutive month, interest rates were left unchanged: the one-year LPR remains at 3.1%, and the five-year LPR at 3.6%.
- The Chinese government ruled out resuming trade negotiations with the U.S. while tariffs remain in place.
Brazil
- The Finance Minister dismissed the likelihood of a recession, expressing confidence that global tariffs will not be sustained and emphasizing that inflation is approaching the Central Bank’s target.
Mexico
- Citi revised its 2025 growth forecast downward to 0.2% (from 0.3%) and now anticipates the benchmark interest rate to end the year at 7.75%.
- Inflation in the first half of April rose to 3.96%, driven primarily by price increases in fruits and vegetables.
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Key Upcoming Events
- May 1: ISM Manufacturing Index (U.S.)
- May 2: Employment indicators (U.S.)
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