admin

Week of May 12–16 

This week, global economic activity delivered mixed signals. 

INTERNATIONAL OVERVIEW: MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE MARKETS 

Recent economic data reveal meaningful shifts in inflation, interest rates, and global activity. Here are the most relevant highlights by country: 

• United States: A temporary tariff reduction was agreed upon with China. Inflation rose 0.2% in April, with an annual rate of 2.3%, coming in below expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that interest rates may need to remain higher for longer due to supply chain pressures. 

• Europe: Germany reported annual inflation of 2.2% in April, as expected. The U.K. economy surprised with 0.7% GDP growth in Q1, driven by strong business investment. 

• China: Inflation turned negative again (-0.1% year-over-year), while producer prices dropped 2.7%. Analysts highlight the need for stronger fiscal stimulus to boost domestic consumption. 

• Brazil: Around 30 agreements were signed with China across strategic sectors such as infrastructure, mining, artificial intelligence, and environmental initiatives. 

• Mexico: The Bank of Mexico cut its benchmark rate to 8.5% for the third straight time and signaled the possibility of further easing. Consumer confidence continued to weaken. 

A long-term investor stays focused on strategies aligned with their risk tolerance to meet financial goals over time. 

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

• China: Retail sales and industrial production data – May 19 
• United States: Fed officials scheduled to speak – May 19–20 

Monitor 

Week of May 5–9 

Here’s a summary of the most relevant events that shaped the markets this week: 

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.5%, as expected. However, the message was clear: uncertainty is rising. Jerome Powell warned that tariffs could lead to higher long-term inflation and slower economic growth. Meanwhile, President Trump announced a new trade deal with the U.K., though it does not currently include removing tariffs on China. 

Key international developments: 

• Europe: Germany reported strong trade and industrial data for March. The Bank of England cut its interest rate to 4.25%.
   
• China: New monetary stimulus measures were introduced, including a rate cut and a reduction in the bank reserve requirement ratio. 
  
• Brazil: The Central Bank raised its benchmark rate to 14.75%—the highest level in two decades—and signaled that further hikes are possible. 
  
• Mexico: April inflation came in at 3.93% year-over-year. Markets continue to expect another rate cut from Banxico, while growth forecasts are being revised downward. 

“Uncertainty actually is the friend of the buyer of long-term values” — Warren Buffett 

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

• U.S. Inflation Report – May 13 
• U.S. Retail Sales – May 15 

Monitor 

U.S. employment, inflation in Europe, and export rebounds in Mexico and China. 

Week of April 28 to May 2 

Market Highlights 
Here’s a summary of the most relevant developments that influenced global markets this week: 

• United States 
177,000 jobs were created in April, beating the 138,000 forecast. However, consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in five years, and Q1 2025 GDP contracted by 0.3%. 
Job openings (JOLTS) also dropped to a six-month low. 

• Europe 
Eurozone GDP grew 0.4% in the first quarter, exceeding projections. However, consumer inflation expectations rose to 2.9% over the next 12 months. 

• China 
The government reaffirmed its commitment to boosting growth through proactive fiscal measures. However, manufacturing activity declined again, reaching a two-year low. 

• Brazil 
The Central Bank emphasized a comprehensive approach amid early signs of economic cooling and inflation levels still above target. There’s growing optimism around the ratification of the Mercosur-EU agreement. 

• Mexico 
Preliminary Q1 2025 GDP grew 0.2%, avoiding a technical recession. Exports rose 9.6% year-over-year, and the trade surplus reached US$3.443 billion. Still, inflation edged up slightly to 3.96%. 

In investing, adaptability in times of change isn’t just an advantage—it’s essential for uncovering new opportunities. 

Key Upcoming Events 

• In the U.S., the ISM Services Index will be released – 05/05 
• In the U.S., the Fed will announce monetary policy – 05/07 

Monitor 

Strong U.S. sales and growth in China stand in contrast with ongoing trade tensions. 

Week of April 21–25 

Market Highlights 
Here’s a summary of the most relevant developments that influenced global markets this week: 

United States 

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that trade tensions with China could ease in the coming months, though a unilateral removal of tariffs is not under consideration. 
• The IMF revised its U.S. growth forecast downward to 1.8% for 2025, from a previous estimate of 2.7%. 
• Gold prices surpassed $3,500 per ounce for the first time in history. 

Europe 

• Economic activity in both the eurozone and the U.K. stagnated, impacted by trade-related uncertainty. 
• Nevertheless, Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index posted an unexpected increase in April, reflecting improved sentiment. 

China 

• For the sixth consecutive month, interest rates were left unchanged: the one-year LPR remains at 3.1%, and the five-year LPR at 3.6%. 
• The Chinese government ruled out resuming trade negotiations with the U.S. while tariffs remain in place. 

Brazil 

• The Finance Minister dismissed the likelihood of a recession, expressing confidence that global tariffs will not be sustained and emphasizing that inflation is approaching the Central Bank’s target. 

Mexico 

• Citi revised its 2025 growth forecast downward to 0.2% (from 0.3%) and now anticipates the benchmark interest rate to end the year at 7.75%. 
• Inflation in the first half of April rose to 3.96%, driven primarily by price increases in fruits and vegetables. 

In investing, adaptability in times of change isn’t just an advantage—it’s essential for uncovering new opportunities. 

 Key Upcoming Events 

• May 1: ISM Manufacturing Index (U.S.) 
• May 2: Employment indicators (U.S.) 

Monitor 

Week of April 14–17 

Here’s a quick look at the most relevant developments that shaped markets during this shortened week. 

United States 

• President Trump is considering temporary exemptions from the 25% tariffs on vehicles and auto parts. 
• Electronic devices like smartphones and computers have been temporarily exempted. 
• Retail sales rose 1.4% in March, beating expectations. 
• Fed Governor Waller noted that the inflationary impact of tariffs would likely be “transitory.” 

Europe 

• U.K. inflation fell to 2.6% in March, better than expected. 
• EU leaders believe most tariffs imposed on the bloc will remain in place. 
• The U.S. may temporarily ease some tariffs, but full removal isn’t expected. 

China 

• Exports rose 12.4% year-over-year in March, surpassing the 4.4% forecast. 
• First-quarter GDP grew 5.4% annually, despite ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. 

Brazil 

• Analysts expect economic growth to slow in the second half of the year, weighed down by high domestic interest rates and global trade friction. 

Mexico 

• The U.S. will impose a 20.91% tariff on Mexican tomato imports starting in July. 
• Finance executives warn that Mexico could lose its investment-grade rating by 2026 if trade relations with the U.S. deteriorate and fiscal deficits persist. 

Staying informed is key to understanding the ever-changing environment in which investments operate.

IMPORTANT EVENTS – CALENDAR 

• April 23: The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book economic report will be released. 
• April 22–24: Regional manufacturing reports will be published in the U.S. 

Monitor