Weekly Summary

his week’s U.S. inflation data gave markets exactly what they were looking for: confirmation that monetary policy could remain on hold in the near term.

Jackson Hole: The Next Major Catalyst for Investors

U.S. inflation moderated as expected during the week of August 10–14, pushing major equity indices to new all-time highs. This reinforces the soft-landing narrative and reduces pressure on the Federal Reserve to act in the near term.

Beyond the U.S. border, the global picture offered important nuances. Europe showed resilience with solid second-quarter growth in both the U.K. and the Eurozone, while Asia continued to deliver mixed signals: Japan sees producer prices gradually easing, and China faces weak domestic demand despite moderating inflation. In Latin America, Brazil reported inflation within the central bank’s target range and solid consumer spending, while Mexico continues to navigate U.S. tariff pressure on its automotive sector, even as broader industrial activity surprised to the upside.

For investors, this week’s environment reinforces a risk-on posture, with equity markets leading the optimism. However, attention will need to shift to the Jackson Hole Symposium, where the Fed may deliver key signals about its monetary policy roadmap. Any tone more hawkish than expected could reverse some of the recent gains.

Monitor

Source: Macroeconomic data for the week of August 10–14, 2026.

Week of August 3–7

Labor market softens while artificial intelligence continues to fuel corporate growth.

Markets navigated a week of mixed signals. While the U.S. labor market slowed more than expected, manufacturing activity and earnings season continued to benefit from investment in artificial intelligence. At the same time, Europe maintained moderate growth, Asia remained supported by trade, and Latin America continued to navigate a cautious monetary policy environment.

• United States

Employment came in weaker than expected, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged. Manufacturing activity and corporate earnings continue to show strength, driven by investment in artificial intelligence.

• Europe

Producer price inflation continued to moderate, although consumer demand remained weak. Manufacturing showed modest improvement, supported by stronger exports and easing input costs.

• Japan

Manufacturing recorded its seventh consecutive month of expansion, with the strongest production growth since 2014, fueled by robust AI-related demand.

• China

Exports remained strong, supported by technology and AI-related demand, while manufacturing activity moderated, pointing to more balanced economic growth.

• Argentina

The renewal of the currency swap agreement with China strengthens external liquidity and provides additional financial support for bilateral trade.

• Brazil

The central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate while maintaining a cautious stance on inflation. Industrial activity continues to show signs of slowing.

• Mexico

Banxico kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged. Public investment and remittances continue to support economic activity despite ongoing global uncertainty.

“To earn the highest of returns that are realistically possible, you should invest with simplicity.”
— John Bogle

Upcoming events

• In the United States, inflation data will be released 08/12
• In the United States, PPI data will be released on 08/13

Market Monitor

Indicative prices as of 10:00 AM EST

Week of July 13–17

Lower inflation, corporate earnings, and uneven growth signals shaped the week.

Markets assessed the start of earnings season alongside easing inflation in the United States. However, geopolitical tensions and weaker activity and investment continue to create an uneven global economic environment.

United States

• Inflation eased and the labor market remained resilient. Early corporate earnings exceeded expectations, although technology-sector volatility and geopolitical tensions weighed on markets.

Europe

• Eurozone inflation continued to decline, but industrial production remained weak. The United Kingdom posted moderate growth, supported by the services sector.

Japan

• Industrial production edged higher during the month but declined year over year due to weakness in machinery, pointing to a still-fragile recovery.

China

• GDP growth slowed due to weak consumer spending and lower investment. Exports rebounded strongly, supported by demand related to artificial intelligence.

Argentina

• Annual inflation increased, although the monthly pace moderated. Tourism, housing, and regulated services continued to drive price pressures.

Brazil

• Retail sales and the services sector posted limited growth. Weakness in transportation confirmed a moderate economic activity environment.

Mexico

• Formal employment and manufacturing payrolls continued to weaken, while private consumption remained resilient, supported by real wage growth, remittances, and low unemployment.

“Investing is the intersection of economics and psychology.”
— Phil Town

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

• In the United States, employment related data will be released 07/21
• In the United States, manufacturing PMI will be released on 07/24

Monitor:

Note: Returns as of 10 AM ET.

Week of July 6–10

Markets combined lower volatility with mixed signals on growth and inflation.

Markets remained relatively stable, although challenges related to inflation, international trade, and monetary policy persist. While the United States and Europe continue to show resilience across several indicators, Asia and Latin America face more specific economic headwinds.

United States

• Markets posted modest gains despite continued volatility in oil prices. The Fed remains firmly data-dependent, while the trade deficit widened and services activity continued to lose momentum.

Europe

• Consumer spending continues to recover and Germany’s external trade improved. However, higher producer prices indicate that inflationary pressures have not fully subsided.

Japan

• Producer price inflation remains elevated, although the monthly pace of increase moderated, suggesting a gradual easing in cost pressures.

China

• Consumer inflation continued to soften, while producer prices posted their strongest increase in several years, reflecting rising costs across the industrial sector.

Argentina

• The government is seeking to secure debt financing through domestic and multilateral sources, prioritizing lower borrowing costs before returning to international capital markets.

Brazil

• Inflation continued to moderate thanks to lower food and housing costs, although energy prices remain a significant source of inflationary pressure.

Mexico

• Inflation fell to its lowest level since 2020, while investment showed signs of recovery. However, uncertainty surrounding trade relations with the United States continues to weigh on the automotive sector.

“It’s not how much money you make, but how much money you keep, how hard it works for you, and how many generations you keep it for.”

— Robert Kiyosaki

Key Upcoming Events

• In the United States, June inflation data will be released 07/14
• In the United States, June PPI will be released 07/15

Monitor:

Note: Returns as of 10 AM ET

Week of June 29 to July 3

Global growth continues to show mixed signals between resilient consumption and moderating economic activity.

Markets entered July with lighter trading activity due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, while economic indicators pointed to a gradual slowdown in global growth. Consumption remains resilient across several regions, although challenges related to trade, manufacturing, and industrial activity persist.

United States

• Markets ended the week on a positive note despite signs of moderation in labor markets and manufacturing activity. Consumption remains solid, although the trade deficit reached its highest level in more than a year.

Europe

• Inflation continues to moderate thanks to lower energy costs. Consumption remains resilient, although signs of industrial weakness and slower growth in the United Kingdom persist.

Japan

• Retail sales surprised to the upside, supported by wage growth, while industrial production continues a gradual, albeit fragile, recovery.

China

• The manufacturing PMI recorded its third consecutive month of expansion, driven by technology exports and artificial intelligence-related demand, despite weak domestic consumption.

Argentina

• Economic activity continues to post positive annual growth, albeit at a slower pace, supported by agriculture and mining.

Brazil

• Producer prices faced less pressure due to lower food and mining costs, partially offsetting increases in other industrial sectors.

Mexico

• Manufacturing activity and remittances continue to support economic growth, while concerns over trade and tax revenue collection are increasing.

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it. He who doesn’t, pays it.” — Albert Einstein

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

• In the United States, the Services PMI will be released on 07/06
• In the United States, employment-related data will be released on 07/09

Monitor:

Note: Returns as of July 2 at closing

Weekly Global Outlook

Week of June 15–19

Central banks remain cautious as the global economy shows diverging signals

The week was marked by monetary policy decisions, persistent inflationary pressures, and mixed growth signals. While some central banks maintained a cautious stance, economic activity reflected contrasting trends across regions as investors continued to monitor interest rate and inflation developments.

United States

The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, removed its easing bias, and projected a median policy rate of 3.8% for 2026. Consumer spending surprised to the upside, while housing and manufacturing showed weakness.

Europe

The Bank of England held rates at 3.75%, and Eurozone inflation remained at 3.2%. Germany showed improving economic sentiment, although the construction sector remains under pressure.

Japan

The BoJ raised its policy rate to 1.0%, the highest level since 1995. Inflation increased modestly, while exports rose 17%, driven by semiconductors and AI-related technology.

China

Consumer activity showed signs of weakness, with declines in retail sales and urban investment. However, industrial production and labor market indicators pointed to greater stability.

Argentina

Consumer confidence rose 6.4% in June, supported by improved expectations and a recovery in sentiment toward durable goods and real estate.

Brazil

Brazil’s central bank lowered its policy rate to 14.25% but warned that inflation remains a key risk. Retail sales declined, reflecting softer economic activity.

Mexico

Mexico, the United States, and Canada will formally begin the USMCA review process on July 1, marking a key step for North American economic integration.

“If a business does well, the stock eventually follows.” — Warren Buffett

Key Upcoming Events

• In the United States, employment related data will be released 06/23
• In the United States, Q1 final growth data will be released 06/25

Monitor:

Note: Returns as of June 18th at closing.

Global Weekly Outlook

Week of June 8–12

Persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions continue to shape markets

The week was marked by higher inflation across several economies, energy-related pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict, and mixed growth signals. Despite these challenges, some sectors continue to demonstrate resilience, while investors remain focused on monetary policy decisions.

United States

Inflation rose to 4.2%, while PPI reached its highest level since 2022. However, home sales remained strong, and SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history.

Europe

The ECB raised rates to 2.25% and revised its inflation outlook higher. Germany saw inflation moderate, while the UK recorded its first economic contraction since August.

Japan

GDP exceeded expectations, supported by consumer spending and exports. However, producer prices rose 6.3%, reflecting the impact of higher energy costs.

China

Inflation remained stable, but producer prices reached their highest level since 2022. Energy and commodity costs continue to pressure industrial margins.

Argentina

Inflation edged up to 33.6% year-over-year in May. Despite the increase, it remains well below levels seen in recent years.

Brazil

Inflation reached 4.72%, exceeding expectations and marking its highest level since September, driven by food and energy prices.

Mexico

Inflation returned to Banxico’s target range and producer prices moderated. However, automotive production declined, although exports continued to grow.

“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.” — Shelby Cullom Davis

Key Upcoming Events

• In the United States, industrial production data will be released 06/15
• In the United States, the FED monetary policy decision will be released on 06/17

Monitor:

Note: Returns as of 10 AM ET.

Week of May 25–29 

Markets remain resilient despite ongoing inflationary and geopolitical challenges

Markets ended the week on a more constructive note, supported by moderating oil prices and strong corporate earnings. However, inflation remains above central bank targets, while geopolitical tensions continue to shape the global economic outlook.

United States

Markets advanced, supported by lower oil prices and S&P 500 earnings growth of 28.4%, the strongest pace since 2021. Inflation remains elevated, while consumer confidence continues to face pressure.

Europe

The ECB remains cautious amid still-elevated inflation. Although consumer confidence improved, economic sentiment remains weak and core inflation continues to run above target.

Japan

Retail sales and employment exceeded expectations. Consumption remains resilient, supported by government stimulus measures and a strong labor market.

China

Industrial profits increased 24.7%, driven by technology, electronics, and energy, reflecting a more favorable recovery in strategic sectors.

Argentina

Inflation expectations continue to moderate. Authorities anticipate monthly inflation below April levels, easing concerns over exchange-rate pressures.

Brazil

GDP exceeded expectations, supported by investment and consumer spending. However, producer prices continue to reflect pressures stemming from the global energy environment.

Mexico

Banxico lowered its 2026 growth forecast. Nevertheless, exports and foreign direct investment reached record levels, supporting economic activity.

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” — John Maynard Keynes

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

• In the United States, manufacturing PMI will be released 06/01
• In the United States, nonfarm payrolls will be released on 06/05

Monitor:

Note: Returns as of 10 AM ET.

Week of May 18 to May 22

A week marked by inflation pressures, rising rates, and mixed growth signals

Markets are facing a more restrictive environment, with persistent inflationary pressures and rising interest rates. While some economies show resilience, others reflect a slowdown, amid ongoing geopolitical risks.

United States

• Fed Minutes point to potential rate hikes.
• 30-year yields surpass 5%.
• Earnings grow ~28%, but housing weakens.
• Labor market remains resilient.

Europe

• Eurozone inflation rises to 3.0% driven by energy.
• UK inflation moderates, but unemployment increases.
• Germany grows in line with expectations, with rising cost pressures.

Japan

• GDP exceeds expectations, but energy costs threaten growth.
• Inflation falls to 1.4%, remaining below the central bank’s target.

China

• Retail sales and industrial production slow.
• Weak domestic demand reflects softer consumption and manufacturing momentum.

Argentina

• Economic activity rebounds to 5.5%, reversing the previous contraction and signaling recovery.

Brazil

• Economic activity declines monthly but maintains 3.1% annual growth, reflecting partial resilience.

Mexico

• Moody’s downgrades rating to Baa3.
• Growth remains moderate, supported by services and easing inflation.

“Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.” — Warren Buffett

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

• In the United States, markets will remain closed for Memorial Day 05/25
• In the United States, employment related data will be released 05/27

Monitor:

Note: Returns as of 10 AM ET.

Source: JP Morgan