Weekly Summary

Markets Focus on Rates and Inflationary Pressures

Higher rates, inflationary pressures, and mixed growth signals shaped the week.

Week of August 17–21: Global Weekly Outlook 

Markets experienced a more volatile week, with U.S. Treasury yields rising and inflationary pressures resurfacing. While the U.S. and Europe face elevated rates, Asia showed signs of slowing momentum.

In the United States, the 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2007, amid growing fiscal concerns, geopolitical tensions, and elevated oil prices. At the same time, the Fed minutes showed a willingness to consider further rate hikes if inflation does not continue to moderate.

Europe also faced increased price pressures, with inflation reaching 2.9% in both the Eurozone and the United Kingdom. In Asia, Japan recorded moderate growth, while China continued to show signs of weakness in domestic demand.

In Latin America, Argentina surprised positively with its economic activity, Brazil lost momentum, and Mexico combined lower inflation with a recovery in GDP.

In an environment where inflation, interest rates, and growth continue to send mixed signals, maintaining a global perspective remains key to understanding the direction of the markets.

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Source: Macroeconomic data for the week of August 17–21, 2026.
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Global Economic Outlook: Mixed Signals 

Week December 15–19 

In a relatively calm week, employment and consumption indicators provided key signals across major economies. Central bank decisions continue to reflect a cautious, data – dependent approach, while global economies show divergences between production and consumption that reinforce the need for selective analysis heading into 2025.

United States 

  • Nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, adding 64,000 jobs in November. 
  • The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. 
  • Headline inflation eased to 2.7% and core inflation to 2.6%. 

Europe 

  • The ECB held rates at 2.15% and revised its growth outlook. 
  • Eurozone inflation stood at 2.1%. 
  • Germany and Spain recorded 2.6% and 3.2%, respectively. 
  • The United Kingdom cut its policy rate to 3.75%. 

China 

  • Industrial production grew 4.8% year over year in November. 
  • Retail sales rose just 1.3%, the weakest increase since December 2022. 
  • Sharp declines in automobiles, household appliances, and construction materials. 

Argentina 

  • GDP expanded 3.3% year over year in 3Q, below expectations. 
  • Manufacturing output declined 2.4%. 
  • The unemployment rate fell to 6.6%, approaching historical lows. 

Brazil 

  • Economic activity declined 0.2% month over month. 
  • Agriculture helped prevent a deeper contraction. 
  • The central bank revised its GDP growth forecast upward and maintained a restrictive stance to contain inflation. 

Mexico 

  • Banxico cut its policy rate to 7%. 
  • Retail sales increased 3.4% year over year, driven by strong online sales. 
  • Employment in the sector rose 1%, while wages increased 3.3%. 

“The first rule of compounding: Never interrupt it unnecessarily.” — Charlie Munger 

Key Upcoming Events 

  • United States: Quarterly GDP growth release — December 23 
  • United States: Labor market data release — December 24 

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Returns as of 10 AM EST 

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