Weekly Summary

November 24–26 

In a holiday-shortened week, U.S. labor data and inflation trends in Latin America took center stage. Expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next move are once again driving market sentiment. 

United States: 

• Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since April, and layoffs continued to rise, pushing the probability of a December rate cut to 84%, up from 39% the previous week. 

Europe: 

• Business confidence in Germany unexpectedly weakened. In the United Kingdom, the new fiscal budget includes tax increases amid an environment of sluggish economic growth. 

Japan: 

• Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi heightened diplomatic tensions with China after stating that Japan could intervene if Beijing acts against Taiwan, adding uncertainty to the regional outlook. 

China: 

• Industrial profits fell 5.5% in October, while the government adopted a firmer stance regarding Taiwan, amplifying geopolitical risks across Asia. 

Brazil: 

• Annual inflation slowed to 4.50% in November, returning to the central bank’s target range for the first time since January—an outcome welcomed by markets. 

Mexico: 

• Inflation rose to 3.61% in the first half of November. Banxico revised its 2025 growth forecast down from 0.6% to 0.3%, while keeping its 2026 estimate unchanged at 1.1%. 

“The thesis underlying everything, whether you’re an actively managed fund or a passive fund, is that the U.S. will be OK. If you don’t believe that, you shouldn’t be in the stock market.” — Peter Lynch 

Key Upcoming Events: 

• United States: Second estimate of Q3 2025 GDP and ISM Manufacturing — December 2 
• United States: ISM Services Index — December 3 

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Week: Week of November 11-15 

Markets moved through a week of soft economic activity in the U.S. and mixed signals across global regions. Key developments included monetary policy adjustments, moderate growth figures, and relevant updates on inflation and employment. This backdrop underscores the importance of analyzing structural trends, not just short-term market moves. 

• United States: The agreement to fund the government through January ended the longest shutdown on record, while the Fed showed mixed views on future rate cuts. The technology sector remained volatile amid valuation concerns. 

• Europe: The U.K. labor market weakened, with unemployment rising to 5.0%—its highest level since 2021. 3Q25 growth slowed, reinforcing expectations for a Bank of England rate cut. The eurozone economy continued to expand at a modest pace in the third quarter. 

• Japan: The Bank of Japan reiterated that it aims for moderate inflation supported by wage growth and improving economic conditions, in line with the government’s broader growth strategy. 

• China: Producer prices fell 2.1% year over year—less than expected—while consumer inflation rose 0.2%, reversing two months of declines. Industrial production and retail sales also delivered weak readings. 

• Brazil: Monthly inflation rose 0.09%, helped by lower electricity tariffs, while the annual figure dropped to 4.68%. The central bank is preparing additional regulations to address the increase in cyberattacks. 

• Mexico: Industrial activity fell 3.3% in September, marking seven consecutive months of contraction. Banxico expects inflation to converge to 3% by 3Q26 and anticipates only limited impact from new taxes. 

“We don’t prognosticate macroeconomic factors; we’re looking at our companies from a bottom-up perspective on their long-run prospects of returning.” – Mellody Hobson 

Key Upcoming Events:  

• United States: Industrial production – 11/18. 
• United States: Federal Reserve minutes – 11/19. 

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Impacto de las decisiones de bancos centrales y el desempeño económico global en lo que va del 2025 

Semana del 27 al 31 de enero  

En lo que va del año, las economías globales muestran señales mixtas: 

• Estados Unidos: La Fed mantuvo la tasa de referencia en 4.25%-4.5%, mientras el PIB del 4T24 creció un 2.3%, moderando su avance respecto a trimestres previos. 

• Europa: El BCE recortó la tasa de referencia a 2.75%, en un contexto de estancamiento económico en la zona euro. 

• China: La actividad manufacturera y los servicios se contrajeron inesperadamente, fortaleciendo expectativas de nuevos estímulos. 

• México: Las exportaciones crecieron un 4.1% anual en 2024, mientras que el PIB del 4T24 cayó un 0.6%, su primera contracción desde 2021. 

Te invitamos a analizar estos datos y sus implicaciones para tus decisiones financieras y estratégicas. Si deseas más información o un análisis detallado, no dudes en contactarnos. 

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Eventos Importantes en las Próximas Semanas 

• En Estados Unidos, se conocerá el ISM de manufactura 02/03 
• En Estados Unidos, tendremos datos del empleo 02/07 

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