Argentina: Different course, same challenges
Javier Milei (La Libertad Avanza – LA) won in the run-off by a relatively wide margin and will be the next president of Argentina, as of December 10th, 2023. Milei obtained 55.7% of the valid votes against 44.3% for Sergio Massa (Unión por la Patria – UP), who proposed to work with the president-elect in […]
Inflation Slowdown Persists
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged in October, holding steady since the 0.4% increase recorded in September. This resulted in an annual rate of 3.2%, slightly below expectations of 3.3% and a decrease from the 3.7% reported in the previous month. Conversely, core CPI inflation, excluding volatile categories such as food and energy, increased […]
November: a historically positive month for the markets
With the arrival of November, traders are starting to talk about the seasonality that stock markets tend to show heading into the final stretch of the year. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, a resource for tracking market patterns and trends, the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrials have historically recorded an average […]
The reference rate remains at its highest level in 22 years
Since the last monetary policy meeting in September, when the Committee chose to keep rates unchanged, the data have shown a robust employment performance and economic growth stronger than expected. Additionally, inflation has improved, albeit at a slower pace, remaining above the target. In this context, in a decision widely anticipated by the market, the […]
Key points for a possible soft landing
Due to the resilient performance observed so far this year, there is a growing perception in the market that the economy may be heading towards what is commonly referred to as a “soft landing.” In broad terms, this concept pertains to the implementation of a restrictive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (involving high-interest rates […]
Shelter costs put major pressure on inflation in September
The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% in September (compared to 0.6% in August), resulting in an annual inflation rate of 3.7% (exceeding the expected 3.6% and unchanged from August). As for core CPI inflation, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, it remained stable with respect to the previous month and […]
High Rates for an Extended Period?
The robust September employment report briefly pushed up long-term government bond yields, prompting investors to rethink their short-term expectations for interest rates. Since late June, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen from 3.8% to 4.8%, coming close to hitting approximately 5%, the highest level since June 2007. Over the past fifteen years, following the global […]
Reinvestment Risk at the End of Hiking Cycle
Intro Hello, I’m Javier Lopez, Fixed Income Specialist, and part of the investment committee at Axxets Wealth Management. For the last 18 months, we witnessed the most aggressive Fed’s hiking cycle in the last 4 decades; with an increase of 525 bps to the Federal Funds Rate divided into only 11 hikes. Now, the landscape […]
Hello Mr. Bond
Hello, I’m Javier López, Fixed Income Specialist @ Axxets Wealth Management. With interest rates on multidecade highs and fixed income expected to show interesting returns in the short/mid-term. We deem it important to explain how bonds work, as this is a $130 trillion market vs the $109 tn market for equities. What are bonds? In […]
What impact would a government shutdown have on the U.S. economy?
Each year, Congress must pass legislation to fund the federal government for the next fiscal year. A shutdown occurs if Congress is unable to pass the necessary spending bills, or a resolution providing interim funding before October 1, when the fiscal year begins. In this context, the Senate passed a last-minute spending bill, avoiding a […]
