Expectations for the 3Q23 corporate reports
The quarterly earnings season will begin in the coming weeks. Overall, the consensus estimates an annual decline (YoY) of -0.2% for S&P 500 companies’ earnings during the third quarter. If these expectations are confirmed, this could represent the fourth consecutive quarter in which the index reports a decline in earnings. However, this could also mark […]
Pause in line, although an additional increase remains latent
As expected, the FED kept the reference rate target range unchanged at 5.25 – 5.50%, the highest level in 22 years. This decision was unanimous. The statement revealed language very similar to that of July, confirming that in determining the degree of additional monetary policy tightening that may be appropriate to eventually bring inflation back […]
Inflation Advances in August Due to Gasoline
The consumer price index accelerated by 0.6% monthly in August, surpassing expectations of 0.6% and the 0.2% recorded in July. This marked its largest advance in 2023. Consequently, annual inflation reached 3.7%, exceeding the expected 3.6% and the 3.2% observed in July. On the other hand, core CPI inflation, which excludes volatile components such as […]
The labor market is strong, although it is normalizing
Labor market figures continued to reflect a broadly robust outlook during August. Nonfarm payrolls advanced by 187,000 jobs (compared to the expected 170,000) and represented an acceleration from the previous month’s downwardly revised 157,000 job increase. This increase would have been even larger if not for the Hollywood strike. The August increase was once again […]
Global Wealth Report 2023
Measured in dollars, net private wealth declined by US$11.3 trillion (tn) to US$454.4tn by the end of 2022 (-2.4% annually). This marked the first decline in global wealth since 2008. Wealth per adult also declined by 3.6% annually to US$84,718, with much of this decline attributed to the appreciation of the U.S. dollar against many […]
All eyes on Jackson Hole
This will be Jerome Powell’s sixth speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, noting that his most recent addresses have varied considerably in length and tone. In 2020, Powell introduced the contested concept of “average inflation targeting,” whereby, after periods in which inflation had been below 2%, the appropriate policy would aim to achieve inflation […]
Primaries in Argentina: unexpected result
With ~97% of the votes counted, the big surprise of these primary elections known as PASO (Simultaneous and Mandatory Open Primary Elections) was the result obtained by the party La Libertad Avanza, reflecting the immense discontent among Argentine society towards the constant failures of traditional politicians, highlighted by an annual inflation currently around 116% and […]
FAQ on U.S. debt cut
In recent days, Fitch Ratings downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA+. This action was not entirely a surprise, as Fitch had placed the rating on negative review during the debt ceiling negotiations at the end of the second quarter of this year. In 2011, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the rating from […]
Valuation dynamics in the real estate sector
As part of our monitoring of alternative investments, following is an update on the dynamics of the real estate sector. As the third quarter of 2023 progresses, global real estate valuations have experienced a significant correction due to changes in capital market conditions over the past year. Transaction and investment volumes have declined, reaching levels […]
“Hike held off; does not close the possibility of further increases”.
After the June pause and in line with market expectations, the FED increased by a quarter of a percentage point (25bp) the target range for the reference rate to 5.25 – 5.50%, a 22-year high. This move represented the eleventh increase since March 2022, when the range was near zero. The decision was unanimous. Inside, […]
