Growth cools; inflation persists
The U.S. economy grew at a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, below expectations, as the government shutdown weighed on spending and exports. For the full year, growth came in at 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024. Meanwhile, core inflation rose to 3% year over year in December, remaining above the Federal […]
A Practical Taxonomy of Alternative Investments
Understanding the Diversity of Alternatives: From Real Estate to Crypto One of the most common questions I get from new team members or family principals is deceptively simple: “What exactly do you mean by alternatives?” It’s a fair question. “Alts” is a broad label that covers everything from core real estate to crypto tokens. But […]
The Fed Enters a New Phase
The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve marks an inflection point for U.S. monetary policy. While he has recently signaled a more pro–lower rates stance, his track record points to a pragmatic, data-dependent approach. Economic context With a softening labor market, inflation still above target, and a politically sensitive […]
Is Bitcoin the Future? A Critical View
Although Bitcoin was pioneering and revolutionary, its role as the foundation of a global financial system reveals key limitations that merit careful consideration. Structural limitations Bitcoin by its nature is limited to only 21 million coins. If we were able to mine them faster (quantum computing, I’m looking at you) or we run out (2150’s […]
The Fed Pauses Rate Cuts Amid Resilience Signals
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, signaling a more optimistic view of the U.S. economy. The statement highlighted solid economic growth and early signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate, reducing the urgency for near-term rate cuts. While two members voted in favor of a reduction, the majority opted for […]
The Peace Dividend Is Over: Rethinking Defense in Portfolios
The peace dividend many of us were born into has expired. We’re entering a new geopolitical reality—one where defense investment can no longer be ignored, even in the most ethically constrained portfolios. Whether you’re in a public pension, a family office, or a university endowment, the relevance of defense—both from a return and a risk management perspective—is rising fast. The question is no longer if […]
U.S. core inflation cools further
U.S. core inflation came in softer than expected in December, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures are gradually easing. Core CPI rose just 0.2% month over month and 2.6% year over year, both below consensus, pointing to a continued normalization of inflation dynamics. Still, headline inflation remains at 2.7%, meaning price stability has not […]
Fed: Mixed Signals After the Latest Rate Cut
The Federal Reserve delivered its third consecutive rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%–3.75%. While the move was widely anticipated, the accompanying statement revealed rising uncertainty about the policy path ahead. The committee showed an unusual split between members focused on labor-market weakness and those still concerned about persistent inflation […]
Is the Santa Claus Rally real?
A seasonal rally or just a myth? The “Santa Claus Rally” describes a historical pattern: markets tend to rise during the final days of December and early January. We analyze its consistency and what to expect heading into 2025. In the financial world, the “Santa Claus Rally” describes a historical pattern: markets tend to rise […]
Stablecoins: Innovation or silent threat to money?
Stablecoins pose a structural challenge to global monetary policy, potentially driving persistent inflation above central bank targets. Central banks don’t regulate or control stablecoin issuance, limiting their ability to adjust money supply across economic cycles. While currently backed 1:1 by fiat, a shift to fractional reserves could amplify inflation. 24/7 DeFi transactions accelerate monetary velocity, […]
