Stablecoins: The Hidden Key Piece Driving Interest Rates and Global Liquidity
Stablecoins are no longer a theoretical exercise but have become part of the global financial market. With a capitalization exceeding $200 billion and high growth, their impact on the global economy is undeniable. Despite this, they remain excluded from monetary indicators like the M2 Money Supply. This omission is, in our opinion, a technical legacy […]
A divided Fed: what’s next for the markets?
The Federal Reserve has not reached a clear agreement on its next steps. A few weeks ago, the Fed cut its rate by 25 bps, but the real surprise came from the vote: one member called for a deeper cut, while another preferred none at all. Two opposing positions that reveal an important fact: the economy […]
Fed cuts again but remains cautious
The Federal Reserve delivered its second rate cut of the year, lowering the policy rate by 25 bps to a range of 3.75%–4%. It announced that it will halt its balance sheet reduction in December. The Fed acknowledged moderate growth but warned of rising labor market risks. The vote was 10–2, reflecting divided positions. Powell: another […]
U.S. Government Shutdown: Political Uncertainty, Market Resilience
The U.S. government shutdown is once again testing market patience amid stalled negotiations and disagreements over public spending. Unlike previous shutdowns, this time there is talk of permanent layoffs instead of temporary furloughs, which could have a stronger impact on employment and domestic consumption. However, historical evidence suggests that such events tend to have a […]
S&P 500 Earnings Outlook — 3Q 2025
The S&P 500 shows resilience heading into 3Q 2025, with reasonable earnings growth expectations despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. Below are the main takeaways for the upcoming earnings season: Earnings Growth Sector Growth Revenues Valuation Key data points for the quarter: ☑ EPS growth estimate +7.9% YoY in 3Q 2025 (vs. 7.3% as of June 30) ☑ […]
Fed cuts rates for the first time in 2025, cautious outlook
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate to a 4.00%–4.25% range, in line with expectations. The decision was nearly unanimous, with only one dissent. Projections point to two additional cuts before year-end, which would bring the average rate to 3.6%. For 2026, the Fed anticipates just one more adjustment. While inflation and unemployment forecasts remained […]
2Q25 earnings season: strong results, underlying risks
The second-quarter earnings season closed with results better than expected. 81% of S&P 500 companies beat estimates, with aggregate annual earnings growth of 12%. Nvidia stood out with a +45% increase in earnings, while Technology, Financials, and Industrials led the way, driven by artificial intelligence and energy demand. Key data from the quarter: Consumers remain […]
Market eyes Jackson Hole amid mixed inflation data.
The U.S. inflation report for July showed mixed signals. Headline CPI held steady at 2.7% year-over-year, while core inflation rose to 3.1%, up from 2.9% the previous month. This shift reinforces market focus on the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium and the Fed’s September decision. Other relevant highlights: The Fed continues to monitor the impact of […]
Why does August tend to be a challenging month for markets?
Investors often focus on corporate earnings reports, inflation, or central bank decisions, but there is another factor that also influences markets: seasonality. Historically, August has been one of the weakest months for financial performance. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged near-zero or negative returns. In pre-election years or after a strong summer, the pattern […]
Fed’s July Meeting: No Changes, but Signs of Slowdown
July Fed Monetary Policy Statement As markets anticipated, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged, maintaining the target range at 4.25%–4.50%. Unlike the more optimistic tone in June, this time the Fed acknowledged a slowdown in economic activity during the first half of the year. While the labor market remains strong and unemployment […]
