Although President Trump has criticized the Fed, the legal basis for dismissal appears weak
Despite recent criticisms from former President Donald Trump toward the Federal Reserve (Fed), the possibility of an early removal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell seems limited. The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 does not grant the Executive Branch the authority to dismiss its officials due to disagreements over monetary policy. In addition, a recent Supreme […]
U.S. Inflation Inches Up; Markets Eye Impact of Upcoming Tariffs
June Inflation: Mixed Signals and Tariff Watch The June inflation report in the U.S. showed a modest monthly uptick, while underlying price pressures remain contained. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in line with expectations, while the annual rate increased to 2.7%, just above the 2.6% forecast. Core inflation rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.9% […]
“One Big Beautiful Bill Act”: Key Changes and Potential Impact
Congress has approved President Trump’s fiscal package, officially named the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA). The proposal includes bold tax adjustments that could significantly impact both economic growth and the country’s fiscal stability. Here are the main highlights: Taxes and Deductions Cuts to Social Programs Other Measures Market Implications: The approval of this fiscal […]
2Q25: Slower Earnings Growth and Margin Pressure for the S&P 500
After the S&P 500 hit new highs, the focus is now on Q2 earnings season. Here are the key takeaways: Market takeaway: Earnings growth is cooling and margins are feeling the squeeze. Still, lower expectations could leave room for upside surprises. Source: Goldman Sachs
Middle East Tensions Raise Risks – But Oversupply Could Keep Prices in Check
Geopolitical Tensions on the Rise: What’s the Impact on Oil Markets? A ceasefire was recently reached between Israel and Iran, yet tensions flared again after the U.S. launched airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites. In response, Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz—a key passage for global oil shipments. Here are three key points to […]
The Fed holds rates steady and keeps rate-cut outlook, but revises growth down.
Fed sticks with rate cut outlook, but lowers growth forecast. As expected, the Federal Reserve kept its interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%. While uncertainty has eased somewhat, the Fed emphasized that lingering risks still call for a cautious approach. The latest dot plot shows that expectations for two rate cuts in 2025 remain. However, seven members of […]
Inflation slows down in May – but no clear signals yet
May Inflation: A Softer Reading The latest U.S. inflation report came in better than expected. Consumer prices (CPI) rose just 0.1% in May and 2.4% over the past year, matching forecasts. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy) also increased by only 0.1%, bringing the annual rate down to 2.8% — both lower than anticipated. […]
Trade uncertainty: legal rulings and market outlook
Recent court decisions keep tariff policy in the spotlight. Tariff update: mixed signals from the courts In recent weeks, U.S. trade policy has returned to the spotlight. A ruling by the Court of International Trade suggested potential changes, but a federal appeals court has temporarily blocked that decision. As a result, current tariffs—covering sectors like steel, […]
Sell in May and go away?
A look at summer market prospects: Between strong historical trends and new risks on the horizon. This old Wall Street saying tends to resurface around Memorial Day, suggesting investors reduce their exposure to stocks during a seasonally weaker period. But history doesn’t fully support that view. Over the past decade, the S&P 500 has averaged […]
Q1 2025 Results: Resilience and Early Signs of What’s Ahead
Q1 2025 ended on a strong note, despite ongoing challenges in the economic landscape. With nearly 85% of S&P 500 companies having reported, the first-quarter earnings season for 2025 showed encouraging strength. Earnings per share (EPS) grew 12% year over year, well above expectations. But corporate commentary also reflected a more cautious tone: mentions of […]
