Weekly Summary

Week: October 27-31 

The week was marked by mixed signals in global markets following a series of key events. These included the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) second consecutive policy rate cut, the extension of the tariff truce between the United States and China, the stagnation of the German economy, and the improvement in China’s industrial profits. These developments underscore the complexity of the global economic and trade environment. 

United States: 

• The Federal Reserve cut the policy rate to a range of 3.75% – 4.00%. 
• Trump and Xi agreed to extend the tariff truce for one more year. 
• Consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in six months. 
• Earnings season continues to show strength, with S&P 500 earnings growing about 10% this quarter. 

Europe

• The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its key rate at 2%. 
• Germany’s economy stagnated due to weaker exports and ongoing global trade pressures, despite a slight improvement in business sentiment. 

Japan

• The government highlighted a moderate recovery supported primarily by capital spending. 
• Caution persists due to risks linked to U.S. trade policy. 

China:

• Industrial profits rose 21.6% YoY in September, the fastest pace since November 2023. This reflects better capacity utilization. 

Brazil

• The U.S. Senate approved a bill to revoke tariffs on Brazil by lifting the national emergency declaration issued in July. 

Mexico:

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted 0.3%YoY in 3Q25. 
• According to President Sheinbaum, the United States extended the negotiation period to avoid the implementation of a 30% tariff. 

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn’t, pays it.” – Albert Einstein 

Key Upcoming Events 

• U.S.: ISM Manufacturing – Nov 3. 
• U.S.: ISM Services & employment-related data (tentative) – Nov 5-7. 

Monitor

Week: October 13–17 

Markets showed a mix of recovery signs and new challenges, driven by trade tensions, monetary policy decisions, and corporate earnings. 

United States 

• Tensions with China escalated following new statements from President Trump. 
• Chair Powell suggested the end of the tightening cycle, opening the door to potential rate cuts. 
• Banks reported solid earnings, though volatility persists among regional banks. 

Europe 

• German investor confidence rose less than expected. 
• The U.K. economy grew 0.1% in August, but with downward revisions to prior data. 
• The IMF urged the Bank of England to remain cautious, as inflation is expected to stay the highest in the G7. 

Asia 

• In China, exports rose 8.3% year-over-year in September, the fastest pace in six months. 
• Inflation fell again (-0.3%), reflecting weak domestic demand and ongoing trade tensions. 
• Producer prices dropped 2.3% annually. 

Latin America 

• In Brazil, the economy expanded 0.4% in August, below expectations. Analysts expect a deeper slowdown as monetary policy remains tight. The Central Bank maintained its benchmark rate at 15%. 
• In Mexico, the IMF projects a fiscal deficit of 3.9% of GDP for 2025 — the highest since 2000. The government is assessing potential tariff adjustments for 2026, depending on U.S.–China trade developments. 

“Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.” — Warren Buffett 

Key Upcoming Events: 

• China: GDP, industrial production, and retail sales data — October 20 
• United States: Consumer prices and new home sales — October 24 

Monitor: 

Week October 6–10 

Markets opened October with mixed signals. Attention focused on the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, revised growth forecasts in China and Mexico, and stronger trade performance in Brazil. In Asia, Japan saw a historic political shift with the election of Sanae Takaichi as leader of the ruling party, while Europe faced renewed political instability. 

United States: 

• The government shutdown remains unresolved. 
• Gold surpassed $4,000 amid political and fiscal uncertainty. 
• The Fed signaled openness to rate cuts, though doubts persist about their extent. 

Europe: 

• France faced an unexpected resignation from its prime minister. 
• In Germany, exports and factory orders fell. 
• The government raised its 2024 growth forecast to 0.2%. 

Asia: 

• In Japan, Sanae Takaichi was elected leader of the ruling party, positioning her to become the country’s first female prime minister. 
• In China, despite the holiday break, the World Bank raised its growth forecast to 4.8%, and the government tightened export controls on rare earth minerals. 

Latin America: 

• In Brazil, beef exports to China rose 38.3% year-over-year in September, setting a new trade record. 
• In Mexico, inflation rose to 3.76% in September. The World Bank revised its 2025 growth forecast upward to 0.5% and anticipates 1.4% for 2026. 

“The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘This time it’s different.’” — John Templeton 

Key Upcoming Events: 

• China: Export and inflation data — October 12–15 
• United States: Inflation report — October 15 

Monitor

September 29 – October 3

General Summary: Markets faced mixed signals last week, balancing political uncertainty in the U.S., inflationary pressures in Europe, and weakness in Asia. Meanwhile, Latin America showed resilience in public finances and corporate outlooks.

United States

• The government remains shut down, the first in nearly seven years, delaying official labor data. Still, markets closed higher on optimism for a short shutdown and strong tech sector performance.
• ADP reported a reduction of 32,000 jobs in September, the largest decline since March 2023.
• Consumer confidence fell more than expected, while President Trump announced an agreement with Pfizer to voluntarily lower drug prices.

Europe

• UK GDP slowed to 0.3% in Q2 (vs. 0.7% in Q1), in line with expectations.
• German inflation accelerated to 2.4% YoY, the highest since February, while unemployment rose by 14,000 to 2.98M.
• The European Union plans to double steel tariffs to 50%, aligning with the U.S. against Chinese overcapacity.

Asia

• Japan: Industrial production fell 1.2% MoM, while retail sales dropped 1.1%, the first contraction in over three years.
• China: Manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month, awaiting new stimulus measures and clearer U.S. trade relations.

Latin America

• Brazil: Public finances exceeded expectations; debt held at 77.5% of GDP, and the primary deficit was ~BRL 17B (~USD 3B), lower than projected.
• Mexico: Fitch plans to raise Pemex’s rating from BB to BB+ after a USD 10B bond buyback, highlighting closer ties with the sovereign. The government emphasized economic resilience and projects 2.3% average growth in 2026.

“In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.” — Robert Arnott

Important Events:

• U.S.: Fed officials’ speeches — October 7–10
• U.S.: Fed minutes — October 8

Monitor

September 22–26

General Summary: In an environment marked by monetary uncertainty and resilient consumption, the latest data and comments from financial authorities show a mixed picture: while the OECD revised global growth forecasts upward, some central banks remain cautious and highlight medium-term risks.

United States

• Fed Governor Stephen Miran stated that interest rates are too high and should be cut by up to 200 bps.
• Jerome Powell warned that equity valuations remain elevated and the path to rate cuts is uncertain.
• Q2 GDP was revised upward to 3.8% annualized, supported by consumer spending.
• OECD projects global growth of 3.2% in 2024 and 1.8% for the U.S. in 2025.

Europe

• UK retail sales rose 0.5% in August.
• Eurozone business activity reached its fastest pace in 16 months, led by Germany’s service sector.
• The Swiss National Bank held rates at 0% and warned about the potential impact of U.S. tariffs through 2026.

Japan

• Manufacturing contracted at the sharpest pace in six months.
• The services producer price index rose 2.7% YoY in August.

China

• Donald Trump advanced plans for U.S. investors to acquire TikTok’s U.S. operations from ByteDance, valued at $14 billion.

Mexico

• Banxico cut the policy rate to 7.5%, the lowest level in three years.
• Inflation in the first half of September stood at 3.74% YoY, in line with expectations.
• OECD revised growth to 0.8% in 2024 (from 0.4%) and to 1.3% in 2026 (from 1.1%).

“The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan. Stick to the good plan.” — John C. Bogle

Key Events:

• U.S.: Consumer Confidence — September 30
• U.S.: Employment Report — October 03

Monitor

Week: September 15–19 

Recent economic data and monetary policy decisions highlight diverging dynamics in the global landscape. From the Fed’s first rate cut of the year to slowing momentum in China and persistent inflation in the United Kingdom, markets are navigating a complex environment. 

United States: 

• In the United States, the Federal Reserve delivered its first rate cut of the year, while retail sales surprised to the upside. 

Europe: 

• In the United Kingdom the inflation remained elevated. 
• In Germany  investor´s confidence improved unexpectedly. 

Asia: 

• China showed a slowdown in consumption and industry. 
• Japan recorded a sharp drop in exports to the U.S. 

Latin America: 

• Brazil kept its benchmark rate unchanged. 
• Mexico advanced with USMCA consultations and issued bonds to finance PEMEX. 

“I’ve usually used the phrase stay the course as one of the great rules of investment success.” — John C. Bogle 

Key Upcoming Events 

• In the United States, several Fed members are scheduled to speak — 09/22–24 
• In the United States, the final revision of Q2 2025 GDP will be released — 09/25 

Monitor

September 8–12 

U.S. inflation came in above expectations, but declines in producer prices and weak employment data reinforced expectations of a rate cut. In Latin America, Mexico and Brazil outlined new fiscal plans, while Europe and China continue to show trade fragility. 

• United States: Inflation rose 0.4% in August, but the PPI fell 0.1%, reinforcing expectations of a rate cut. Together with weak employment data, this has fueled anticipation of the first cut since last year. 

• Europe: German exports fell 0.6% month-over-month, including an 8% drop to the U.S. The ECB kept rates unchanged, while France faces new political challenges with the appointment of a new prime minister. 

• China: Exports rose 4.4% year-over-year, below the 5% forecast. Inflation fell -0.4% YoY, while producer prices dropped 2.9% YoY, deepening the disinflationary trend. 

• Japan: Q2 GDP was revised upward to 2.2% annualized, driven by stronger private consumption and inventory buildup. 

• Brazil: Inflation eased to 5.13% YoY. While headline prices declined 0.11% MoM, services remain under pressure. 

• Mexico: The 2026 economic package projects a lower deficit (4.16% of GDP) and growth between 1.8% and 2.8%. Pemex will receive $14 billion in support, and new tariffs on Chinese vehicles are under consideration. 

“Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy.” — John C. Bogle 

Key Events: 

• U.S. Retail Sales — 09/16 
• U.S. Monetary Policy Announcement — 09/18 

Monitor

Week: September 2-5  

Markets remain attentive to mixed signals on inflation, trade, and monetary policy. 

In a week marked by diverging economic data and monetary policy expectations, here are the key points investors closely followed: 

United States 

• Manufacturing contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August. 
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed support for starting a rate-cut cycle in September, leaving room for further adjustments. 
• Markets are pricing in a 96% probability of a 25 bps cut at the September 18 meeting. 
• Employment slowed in August, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.3% 

Europe 

• Manufacturing expanded in August for the first time since 2022. 
• Inflation ticked up slightly to 2.1% YoY, driven by unprocessed food and a smaller decline in energy costs. 

Asia 

• Japan’s manufacturing fell again in August due to weaker foreign demand and U.S. tariffs. The BoJ indicated hikes may continue, though without urgency. 
• China, the manufacturing PMI saw its fastest growth in five months, and services posted their best performance in over a year, supported by domestic consumption. 

Latin America  

• Brazil, the government completed its third external debt issuance of the year, including 30Y bonds at 7.5% and 5Y bonds at 5.2%. 
• Mexico, remittances fell 4.7% YoY in July, though they remain at historically high levels. Banxico raised GDP forecasts to 0.6% for 2025. Pemex launched a bond buyback of up to USD 9.9B, with a deadline of September 30. 

“Our favorite holding period is forever.” — Warren Buffett 

Upcoming Key events:  

• China export data — 09/08 
• U.S. inflation data — 09/11 

Monitor

Week: August 25–29 

Global markets reacted this week to renewed trade tensions, macroeconomic revisions, and political moves that increased uncertainty over the global economic outlook. In the U.S., stronger-than-expected data was overshadowed by political interference. In Europe, confidence indicators showed a fragmented recovery. Asia remains cautious amid weak industrial growth, while Latin America faces rising trade and political pressures. 

United States: 
• GDP for Q2 2025 was revised up to 3.3% annualized, supported by a 1.6% rise in consumer spending. 
• Jobless claims declined to 229,000. 
• President Trump dismissed Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud, raising concerns about central bank independence. 
• A 50% tariff on Indian exports went into effect, impacting $48.2 billion in trade. 

Europe: 
• Germany’s IFO business confidence index reached a 15-year high. 
• However, GfK consumer confidence declined for the third straight month. 
• The EU proposed lifting tariffs on U.S. industrial goods, including retroactive cuts on automobiles. 
• UK producer prices rose 1.9% YoY in June, the highest in two years. 

Asia: 
• Japan downgraded its corporate earnings outlook due to U.S. trade policies. 
• In China, industrial profits dropped 1.5% in July, despite a trade truce with the U.S. 

Argentina: 
• The Central Bank raised the reserve requirement by 3.5 percentage points to 48.5% amid electoral tensions and corruption allegations. 

Brazil: 
• Created 129,775 formal jobs in July, the lowest monthly figure since March. 
• Finance Minister Haddad may challenge U.S. tariffs in court. 

Mexico: 
• Steel exports to the U.S. dropped 16.6% YoY in H1. 
• New tariffs on Chinese imports planned in the 2026 budget proposal. 
• Mexico and Brazil signed agreements on biofuels and competitiveness during VP Alckmin’s visit. 

“Know what you own, and know why you own it.” — Peter Lynch 

Upcoming Key Events: 

• U.S.: ISM Manufacturing Index – September 2 
• U.S.: Employment report – September 5 

Monitor

Week of August 18–22 

The third week of August was marked by a modest flow of economic data, yet key signals began to shape the global monetary outlook. In the U.S., housing starts and building permits posted moderate gains, while the Fed minutes revealed ongoing concerns about inflation. Powell’s latest remarks hinted that conditions may soon warrant a policy rate adjustment. 

In Europe, inflation in the UK rose to its highest level in 18 months, even as Germany confirmed a contraction in its second-quarter GDP. Despite this, analysts expect the Bank of England to consider additional rate cuts before year-end. Meanwhile, Asia showed signs of softness: both China and Japan reported a decline in exports, and China’s youth unemployment remains elevated. 

In Latin America, institutional developments made headlines. Petrobras’ CEO resigned, while Pemex’s credit rating was placed under review following the release of its 2025–2035 strategic plan. As markets enter a more uncertain phase, attention now turns to Jackson Hole, where central bank narratives may set the tone for the remainder of the year. 

• United States: Fed minutes highlight inflation concerns and labor weakness. S&P affirms ‘AA+’ rating. Housing starts up 2.8%, permits up 0.5%. Powell suggests current conditions could justify a rate adjustment. 

• Europe: UK may cut rates again, despite 3.8% inflation. Germany contracts. EU limits tariffs on exports to the U.S. 

• Japan: Exports drop 2.6% YoY; exports to the U.S. fall 10.1%. 

• China: Youth unemployment rises to 17.8%. Benchmark rates unchanged. 

• Brazil: Petrobras CEO resigns. 

• Mexico: Moody’s places Pemex under review. Fitch sees neutral impact. Inflation surprises to the downside; Q2 GDP slightly revised. 

“Don’t bottom fish.” — Peter Lynch 

KEY EVENTS 

• U.S.: Consumer Confidence → August 25 
• U.S.: Q2 GDP Release → August 28 

Monitor