Weekly Summary

Week of March 9–13

Markets are navigating geopolitical tensions, energy pressures, and diverging economic signals. While inflation is moderating in some economies, growth prospects and monetary policy remain influenced by ongoing global uncertainty.

United States
Volatility increased amid Middle East tensions and rising oil prices. Inflation held at 2.4%, while the trade deficit narrowed following record exports. Jobless claims declined, suggesting the labor market remains resilient.

Europe
German inflation eased to 1.9%, though core inflation remains elevated. Industrial production and exports declined. The ECB warned of inflation risks linked to higher oil prices, signaling a potentially less accommodative policy stance.

Japan
GDP grew 1.3% in 2025, driven by stronger investment and consumption. Producer inflation moderated to 2.0%, pointing to some stabilization in industrial costs.

China
Inflation rose to 1.3% due to Lunar New Year spending. Exports surged 21.8% in the first two months of the year, generating a large trade surplus supported by manufacturing and technology sectors.

Argentina
Inflation increased to 33.2% in February. Despite the monthly rise, it remains well below the country’s historical average, reflecting progress in macroeconomic stabilization.

Brazil
Annual inflation slowed to 3.81%, although monthly inflation rose due to seasonal factors. Retail sales grew 2.8% year-over-year, indicating resilient consumer demand.

Mexico
Inflation rose to 4.02%, with core inflation remaining elevated, potentially delaying interest rate cuts. The USMCA review and energy price dynamics will be key themes. Authorities agreed to keep regular gasoline prices stable.

“If you aren’t willing to own a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it for 10 minutes.”

– Warren BuffettForma

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

• In the United States, industrial production data will be released on 03/16.
• In the United States, the FEDs monetary policy decision will be released on 03/18.

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Returns as of 10 AM EST.

Week of March 2–6

The week delivered a diverse economic outlook: weaker employment and consumer data in the U.S., signs of industrial recovery in Europe and Asia, and structural adjustments alongside moderate growth prospects in Latin America.

United States

Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, largely due to temporary factors. Consumer activity also softened, while rising cost pressures in manufacturing and services increased inflation risks.

Europe

In the U.K., construction fell to its lowest level in 14 months, although manufacturing expanded on stronger external demand. In Germany, both manufacturing and services grew in February, supported by orders and stimulus despite higher costs.

Japan

Unemployment rose to 2.7% in January, signaling a cooling labor market. In contrast, the manufacturing PMI reached its highest level in nearly four years, supported by exports, new orders, and stronger business optimism.

China

Economic activity accelerated in February, with both manufacturing and services PMIs exceeding expectations thanks to exports and job creation, although business optimism softened due to rising costs.

Argentina

The government announced it will prioritize a comprehensive tax reform in 2026 aimed at reducing the tax burden to support growth, alongside changes to the electoral and criminal frameworks.

Brazil

The economy grew 2.3% in 2025, its slowest pace since the pandemic. A weak year-end performance strengthens expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026.

Mexico

Remittances fell 1.4% year over year in January, the first decline for that month since 2015. Although investment rebounded at the end of 2025, the year closed in contraction. Analysts raised the 2026 growth forecast to 1.46%.

“If a business does well, the stock eventually follows.” – Warren Buffett

Key upcoming events

• In the United States, employment related data will be released on 03/10
• In the United States, February’s inflation data will be released on 03/11

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Week of February 23–27

Markets are balancing solid earnings, evolving trade policy, and diverging inflation trends across regions. While growth remains resilient in some economies, policy uncertainty and valuation levels continue to guide investor positioning.

United States

The Supreme Court struck down “emergency” tariffs due to lack of Congressional approval. The Administration introduced a new 10% global tariff. PPI rose 0.5% in January, core at 3.6%. Earnings remain strong, while jobless claims suggest a steady labor market and a Fed on hold.

Europe

Eurozone inflation eased to 1.7%, below the ECB target range, with core at 2.2%. Germany’s inflation moderated to 1.9%, though services remain elevated. Business confidence improved, but consumer sentiment softened amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Japan

The leading economic index reached its highest level since May 2024, supported by labor strength. Services inflation rose 2.6%, reflecting wage pressures. Consumer sentiment weakened due to higher costs and interest rates.

China

The IMF urged China to shift toward consumption-led growth and reduce industrial subsidies, aiming to address external imbalances following record trade surpluses.

Argentina

Economic activity rose 3.5% year-over-year, led by agriculture and mining. Retail sales increased 16.1% nominally, though real consumption declined due to inflation pressures.

Brazil

Brazil posted a primary surplus below expectations, as spending growth outpaced revenue gains, adding pressure to fiscal balance targets.

Mexico

Inflation rose to 3.92% in early February, with core easing slightly. Economic activity expanded 3.3% in December, but unemployment increased to 2.7%, with over 700,000 jobs lost in January.

“Buy a stock the way you would buy a house. Understand and like it such that you’d be content to own it in the absence of any market.” – Warren Buffett

Key upcoming events

• In the United States, manufacturing PMI will be released on 03/02
• In the United States, nonfarm payrolls will be released on 03/05

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Week of February 16–20

The week brought signs of slowing growth in the U.S., persistent inflation pressures in Europe, and ongoing adjustments across Asia and Latin America. Markets remain focused on inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical risks.

United States

Q4 2025 GDP grew 1.4%, below expectations, impacted by the government shutdown. The Fed maintained a restrictive tone amid persistent inflation and rising oil prices driven by tensions with Iran.

Europe

Germany posted 2.1% inflation and weaker investor confidence. In the U.K., inflation eased to 3.0%, but unemployment rose to 5.2%, reinforcing expectations of a potential rate cut.

Japan

The economy grew 0.2% in 2025, below forecasts. Inflation moderated, while exports surged 16.8%, narrowing the trade deficit.

China

State-owned enterprises are set to acquire real estate projects to reduce excess supply and stabilize the property market, potentially easing economic headwinds.

Argentina

A trade surplus is projected for January, supported by stronger exports and lower imports, reinforcing the Central Bank’s reserve accumulation.

Brazil

Economic activity expanded 2.5% in 2025, driven by the agricultural sector. The environment remains shaped by restrictive interest rates aimed at containing inflation.

Mexico

Manufacturing employment declined 2% in 2025. Banxico is evaluating potential rate adjustments amid 3.77% inflation, while Fitch warned of challenges to the 2026–2030 infrastructure plan.

“The longer you can extend your time horizon the less competitive the game becomes.” – Howard Marks

Key upcoming events

• In the United States, employment-related data will be released on 02/24
• In the United States, Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data will be released on 02/27

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February 9–13

The global economy continues to show moderate growth, with inflation easing in developed markets while emerging markets face more persistent pressures. Central banks remain focused on stability and monitoring macro risks.

United States
Employment surprised to the upside and inflation continues to moderate, giving the Fed room to keep rates steady. Corporate earnings remain strong, with solid profit growth and a high share of positive earnings surprises.

Europe
The eurozone posted moderate growth, led by Ireland and Spain. The U.K. continues to show weak growth but early signs of housing recovery, while policymakers focus on strengthening regional competitiveness.

Japan
Corporate bankruptcies reached a 13-year high due to rising labor costs and worker shortages, particularly impacting SMEs, amid weak real wage growth.

China
Low inflation and persistent deflationary pressure reinforce expectations for additional stimulus. Structural weakness in the real estate sector continues.

Argentina
Inflation accelerated again, driven by food and services, maintaining pressure on purchasing power and macro expectations.

Brazil
Inflation rose due to housing and transportation, while producer prices remain in a deflationary trend, reflecting easing upstream cost pressures.

Mexico
Core inflation remains elevated, led by services. Industrial activity shows moderate recovery, while the auto sector faces external trade pressures.

Week of February 2 – 6

The week delivered mixed signals: strong corporate earnings resilience in the U.S., moderating inflation in Europe, and some slowdown across parts of LatAm, while Asia shows early signs of stabilization in industrial activity.

United States

Private job growth slowed, but manufacturing and services remain resilient. Earnings season remains strong, with 80% of companies beating estimates and earnings growing 15% year over year.

Europe

The ECB held rates steady as inflation continues to moderate. Germany posted an industrial rebound, while the BoE showed internal divisions on the rate path.

Japan

Manufacturing returned to expansion after several months of contraction, and services reached their highest level in nearly a year, signaling a gradual recovery in activity.

China

Manufacturing strengthened on higher external demand and production, supporting factory hiring and suggesting stabilization in the industrial cycle.

Argentina

A new agreement with the U.S. on critical minerals aims to accelerate investment and exports, following a record year for the mining sector.

Brazil

Private-sector activity stalled as manufacturing weakness offset services growth, weighing on employment and increasing input costs.

Mexico

Banxico paused rate cuts amid persistent inflation. Remittances declined after record years, and manufacturing remains weak due to tariffs and softer external demand.

“Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is.” – Warren Buffett

Key upcoming events

• In the United States, the Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released on 02/11
• In the United States, the Inflation report will be released on 02/13

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Week of January 26 to 30 

Global markets reflect a balance between solid growth in developed economies, persistent inflationary pressures in certain sectors, and ongoing monetary policy adjustments in emerging markets.

United States

The Fed kept rates at 3.5%–3.75% amid solid growth and stable employment. PPI rose 0.5% month on month, and the trade deficit widened in November, potentially weighing on Q4 GDP.

Europe

Eurozone GDP grew 1.3% YoY in Q4 2025, exceeding expectations. Germany expanded 0.4% YoY, with inflation rising due to food prices, while services inflation eased and consumer confidence improved.

Japan

Service-sector prices rose 2.6% YoY in December. Labor shortages and a weaker yen are pushing costs higher, reinforcing the BoJ’s case for continued monetary policy normalization.

China

The government will prioritize domestic consumption of goods and services in 2026 to reduce industrial overcapacity and external dependence, supporting sectors such as tourism, transportation, and digital services.

Argentina

The IMF reaffirmed a 4% growth outlook for Argentina in 2026 and 2027. Globally, it projects 3.3% growth, conditioned by trade tensions, technology investment, and political uncertainty.

Brazil

Brazil’s Central Bank kept its policy rate at 15.00%. A prolonged pause is expected amid risks from services inflation and FX volatility, with the goal of converging to the 3.2% inflation target by 2027.

Mexico

Mexico’s economy grew 0.7% in 2025, beating expectations. Exports rose 7.6%, driven by non-automotive manufacturing. Unemployment ended the year at 2.4%, and Banxico is considering gradual rate cuts.

Key upcoming events 

• In the United States, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will be released on 02/02 
• In the United States, the Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released on 02/06 

“Waiting helps you as an investor and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait.” – Charlie Munger 

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Week of January 19–23 

Global markets reflect a balance between resilient growth, easing inflation in some regions, and persistent pressures in others, shaping monetary policy expectations and economic activity in 2025. 

United States 

Q3 GDP was revised up to a 4.4% annualized rate, driven by exports, business investment, and strong consumer spending. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates at 3.50%–3.75% this quarter, reflecting a cautious stance amid mixed economic data. 

Europe 

Eurozone inflation closed 2025 at 1.9%, below the European Central Bank’s 2% target. Germany’s economic confidence improved after several difficult quarters, while the United Kingdom continues to face persistent inflation pressures that complicate monetary policy decisions. 

Japan 

Inflation eased to 2.1% year over year in December. Lower energy prices offset underlying pressures, although core inflation remains above the Bank of Japan’s target, maintaining uncertainty about future monetary adjustments. 

China 

GDP grew 4.5% in the fourth quarter, weighed down significantly by the real estate sector. Weak consumption contrasts with a late-year rebound in industrial production, reflecting an uneven economic landscape that requires targeted stimulus measures.

Argentina 

Economic activity fell 0.3% year over year in November, its first contraction in 14 months, despite solid performance in agriculture and mining sectors. The economy shows signs of weakness in other key sectors. 

Brazil 

Business confidence improved slightly but remains in pessimistic territory. Concerns persist about the pace of the domestic economic recovery, with worries about sustained medium-term growth. 

Mexico 

Inflation rose in the first half of the year, while consumption remained strong, supported by higher retail sales and e-commerce growth. The consumer dynamics contrast with moderation in other economic indicators. 

Key upcoming events 

• In the United States, the FED monetary policy decision will be announced on January 28 
• In the United States, the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on January 30 

“The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting.” – Charlie Munger 

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Week of January 12–16 

Key data on inflation, consumption, and growth shape the start of 2026 

This week, markets reacted to mixed signals: stable U.S. inflation, positive surprises in retail sales, and uneven growth across Europe. Meanwhile, China strengthened its global trade presence, and Argentina closed the year with its lowest inflation in eight years. 

United States 

Headline inflation held at 2.7% and core inflation at 2.6%. PPI rebounded to 3% due to energy. Retail sales rose 0.6%, pointing to a segmented consumption pattern. Projected GDP was revised to 5.1%. The earnings season begins with positive results from banks. 

Europe 

Germany exits recession with 0.2% annual growth, though industrial activity remains weak. The United Kingdom surprised with 1.4% annual growth. Trade association BGA expects a modest recovery in Germany’s wholesale sector in 2026. 

Japan 

The prime minister will dissolve Parliament and call early elections. The Producer Price Index fell to 2.4% year over year in December, the lowest level since May, in line with expectations. 

China 

Posted a record trade surplus of $1.19 trillion in 2025. The decline in exports to the U.S. was offset by strong growth in shipments to Africa and Asia. 

Argentina 

Inflation closed the year at 31.5%, its lowest level since 2017. In December, prices rose 2.8%, driven by transportation, housing, and food. 

Brazil 

Retail sales increased 1.3% year over year in November. While positive, they remain below the historical average. 

Mexico 

The World Bank lowered its 2026 growth forecast to 1.3%. Fixed investment fell 5.5% year over year in October, although residential construction grew 13.5%. 

Key upcoming events 

• United States: markets will be closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday 01/19 
• United States: the final reading of Q3 GDP growth will be released on 01/22 

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” – Warren Buffett

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