Weekly Summary

Week of February 16–20

The week brought signs of slowing growth in the U.S., persistent inflation pressures in Europe, and ongoing adjustments across Asia and Latin America. Markets remain focused on inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical risks.

United States

Q4 2025 GDP grew 1.4%, below expectations, impacted by the government shutdown. The Fed maintained a restrictive tone amid persistent inflation and rising oil prices driven by tensions with Iran.

Europe

Germany posted 2.1% inflation and weaker investor confidence. In the U.K., inflation eased to 3.0%, but unemployment rose to 5.2%, reinforcing expectations of a potential rate cut.

Japan

The economy grew 0.2% in 2025, below forecasts. Inflation moderated, while exports surged 16.8%, narrowing the trade deficit.

China

State-owned enterprises are set to acquire real estate projects to reduce excess supply and stabilize the property market, potentially easing economic headwinds.

Argentina

A trade surplus is projected for January, supported by stronger exports and lower imports, reinforcing the Central Bank’s reserve accumulation.

Brazil

Economic activity expanded 2.5% in 2025, driven by the agricultural sector. The environment remains shaped by restrictive interest rates aimed at containing inflation.

Mexico

Manufacturing employment declined 2% in 2025. Banxico is evaluating potential rate adjustments amid 3.77% inflation, while Fitch warned of challenges to the 2026–2030 infrastructure plan.

“The longer you can extend your time horizon the less competitive the game becomes.” – Howard Marks

Key upcoming events

• In the United States, employment-related data will be released on 02/24
• In the United States, Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data will be released on 02/27

Monitor

February 9–13

The global economy continues to show moderate growth, with inflation easing in developed markets while emerging markets face more persistent pressures. Central banks remain focused on stability and monitoring macro risks.

United States
Employment surprised to the upside and inflation continues to moderate, giving the Fed room to keep rates steady. Corporate earnings remain strong, with solid profit growth and a high share of positive earnings surprises.

Europe
The eurozone posted moderate growth, led by Ireland and Spain. The U.K. continues to show weak growth but early signs of housing recovery, while policymakers focus on strengthening regional competitiveness.

Japan
Corporate bankruptcies reached a 13-year high due to rising labor costs and worker shortages, particularly impacting SMEs, amid weak real wage growth.

China
Low inflation and persistent deflationary pressure reinforce expectations for additional stimulus. Structural weakness in the real estate sector continues.

Argentina
Inflation accelerated again, driven by food and services, maintaining pressure on purchasing power and macro expectations.

Brazil
Inflation rose due to housing and transportation, while producer prices remain in a deflationary trend, reflecting easing upstream cost pressures.

Mexico
Core inflation remains elevated, led by services. Industrial activity shows moderate recovery, while the auto sector faces external trade pressures.

Week of February 2 – 6

The week delivered mixed signals: strong corporate earnings resilience in the U.S., moderating inflation in Europe, and some slowdown across parts of LatAm, while Asia shows early signs of stabilization in industrial activity.

United States

Private job growth slowed, but manufacturing and services remain resilient. Earnings season remains strong, with 80% of companies beating estimates and earnings growing 15% year over year.

Europe

The ECB held rates steady as inflation continues to moderate. Germany posted an industrial rebound, while the BoE showed internal divisions on the rate path.

Japan

Manufacturing returned to expansion after several months of contraction, and services reached their highest level in nearly a year, signaling a gradual recovery in activity.

China

Manufacturing strengthened on higher external demand and production, supporting factory hiring and suggesting stabilization in the industrial cycle.

Argentina

A new agreement with the U.S. on critical minerals aims to accelerate investment and exports, following a record year for the mining sector.

Brazil

Private-sector activity stalled as manufacturing weakness offset services growth, weighing on employment and increasing input costs.

Mexico

Banxico paused rate cuts amid persistent inflation. Remittances declined after record years, and manufacturing remains weak due to tariffs and softer external demand.

“Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is.” – Warren Buffett

Key upcoming events

• In the United States, the Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released on 02/11
• In the United States, the Inflation report will be released on 02/13

Monitor

Week of January 26 to 30 

Global markets reflect a balance between solid growth in developed economies, persistent inflationary pressures in certain sectors, and ongoing monetary policy adjustments in emerging markets.

United States

The Fed kept rates at 3.5%–3.75% amid solid growth and stable employment. PPI rose 0.5% month on month, and the trade deficit widened in November, potentially weighing on Q4 GDP.

Europe

Eurozone GDP grew 1.3% YoY in Q4 2025, exceeding expectations. Germany expanded 0.4% YoY, with inflation rising due to food prices, while services inflation eased and consumer confidence improved.

Japan

Service-sector prices rose 2.6% YoY in December. Labor shortages and a weaker yen are pushing costs higher, reinforcing the BoJ’s case for continued monetary policy normalization.

China

The government will prioritize domestic consumption of goods and services in 2026 to reduce industrial overcapacity and external dependence, supporting sectors such as tourism, transportation, and digital services.

Argentina

The IMF reaffirmed a 4% growth outlook for Argentina in 2026 and 2027. Globally, it projects 3.3% growth, conditioned by trade tensions, technology investment, and political uncertainty.

Brazil

Brazil’s Central Bank kept its policy rate at 15.00%. A prolonged pause is expected amid risks from services inflation and FX volatility, with the goal of converging to the 3.2% inflation target by 2027.

Mexico

Mexico’s economy grew 0.7% in 2025, beating expectations. Exports rose 7.6%, driven by non-automotive manufacturing. Unemployment ended the year at 2.4%, and Banxico is considering gradual rate cuts.

Key upcoming events 

• In the United States, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will be released on 02/02 
• In the United States, the Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released on 02/06 

“Waiting helps you as an investor and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait.” – Charlie Munger 

Monitor

Week of January 19–23 

Global markets reflect a balance between resilient growth, easing inflation in some regions, and persistent pressures in others, shaping monetary policy expectations and economic activity in 2025. 

United States 

Q3 GDP was revised up to a 4.4% annualized rate, driven by exports, business investment, and strong consumer spending. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates at 3.50%–3.75% this quarter, reflecting a cautious stance amid mixed economic data. 

Europe 

Eurozone inflation closed 2025 at 1.9%, below the European Central Bank’s 2% target. Germany’s economic confidence improved after several difficult quarters, while the United Kingdom continues to face persistent inflation pressures that complicate monetary policy decisions. 

Japan 

Inflation eased to 2.1% year over year in December. Lower energy prices offset underlying pressures, although core inflation remains above the Bank of Japan’s target, maintaining uncertainty about future monetary adjustments. 

China 

GDP grew 4.5% in the fourth quarter, weighed down significantly by the real estate sector. Weak consumption contrasts with a late-year rebound in industrial production, reflecting an uneven economic landscape that requires targeted stimulus measures.

Argentina 

Economic activity fell 0.3% year over year in November, its first contraction in 14 months, despite solid performance in agriculture and mining sectors. The economy shows signs of weakness in other key sectors. 

Brazil 

Business confidence improved slightly but remains in pessimistic territory. Concerns persist about the pace of the domestic economic recovery, with worries about sustained medium-term growth. 

Mexico 

Inflation rose in the first half of the year, while consumption remained strong, supported by higher retail sales and e-commerce growth. The consumer dynamics contrast with moderation in other economic indicators. 

Key upcoming events 

• In the United States, the FED monetary policy decision will be announced on January 28 
• In the United States, the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on January 30 

“The big money is not in the buying and selling, but in the waiting.” – Charlie Munger 

Monitor

Week of January 12–16 

Key data on inflation, consumption, and growth shape the start of 2026 

This week, markets reacted to mixed signals: stable U.S. inflation, positive surprises in retail sales, and uneven growth across Europe. Meanwhile, China strengthened its global trade presence, and Argentina closed the year with its lowest inflation in eight years. 

United States 

Headline inflation held at 2.7% and core inflation at 2.6%. PPI rebounded to 3% due to energy. Retail sales rose 0.6%, pointing to a segmented consumption pattern. Projected GDP was revised to 5.1%. The earnings season begins with positive results from banks. 

Europe 

Germany exits recession with 0.2% annual growth, though industrial activity remains weak. The United Kingdom surprised with 1.4% annual growth. Trade association BGA expects a modest recovery in Germany’s wholesale sector in 2026. 

Japan 

The prime minister will dissolve Parliament and call early elections. The Producer Price Index fell to 2.4% year over year in December, the lowest level since May, in line with expectations. 

China 

Posted a record trade surplus of $1.19 trillion in 2025. The decline in exports to the U.S. was offset by strong growth in shipments to Africa and Asia. 

Argentina 

Inflation closed the year at 31.5%, its lowest level since 2017. In December, prices rose 2.8%, driven by transportation, housing, and food. 

Brazil 

Retail sales increased 1.3% year over year in November. While positive, they remain below the historical average. 

Mexico 

The World Bank lowered its 2026 growth forecast to 1.3%. Fixed investment fell 5.5% year over year in October, although residential construction grew 13.5%. 

Key upcoming events 

• United States: markets will be closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday 01/19 
• United States: the final reading of Q3 GDP growth will be released on 01/22 

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” – Warren Buffett

Monitor

Week: December 1–5 

Markets ended the week focused on the persistent weakness in global manufacturing activity and the continued loss of momentum in the U.S. labor market. In this environment, expectations for a potential interest rate cut before year-end strengthened. Europe and Asia showed mixed signals, while Latin America posted contrasting results across growth and income indicators. 

United States: 

• Manufacturing contracted for the ninth consecutive month, while the services sector recorded its strongest expansion in nine months. 
• Private employers cut 32,000 jobs, reinforcing expectations of a December rate cut, now priced with an 87% probability. 

Europe: 

• The Bank of England reduced capital requirements for the first time since 2008 in an effort to stimulate lending. 
• Eurozone inflation reached 2.2% year over year, with services remaining the main driver. 

Japan: 

• The services sector maintained a solid pace of expansion in November, supported by rising new orders and improved business confidence. 

China: 

• Manufacturing contracted for the eighth straight month, while services grew at their slowest pace in five months. 
• Analysts expect additional expansionary measures to help sustain a growth target near 5% in 2026. 

Brazil: 

• GDP grew 1.8% year over year in 3Q25, its weakest reading since 2022. 
• Agriculture and industry remained the main contributors despite the slowdown. 

Mexico: 

• Remittances fell 1.7% year over year in October, marking the smallest decline since April. 
• The minimum wage will increase 13% in 2026 to 315.04 pesos per day, a cumulative rise of 150% since 2018. 

“Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.” — Warren Buffett 

Key Upcoming Events: 

• United States: Employment data release — Dec 9 
• United States: Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement — Dec 10 

Monitor

November 17–21 

The U.S. labor market returned to the spotlight this week, while Europe maintained a stable tone and Japan showed signs of cooling. In Mexico, foreign direct investment continued to strengthen. Here are the key topics to watch. 

United States: 

• The economy added 119,000 jobs in September, above expectations, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. 
• The Fed remains divided, and the probability of a December rate cut currently stands at 40%. 

Europe: 

• Inflation remains stable near 2%, and the ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged at least through the end of 2026. 
• In the UK, inflation fell to 3.6%, potentially opening the door for a rate cut by the Bank of England in December. 

Japan: 

• GDP fell 1.8% annualized in the third quarter, with a quarterly contraction of 0.4%. 
• Exports were the main drag, reflecting a weaker external backdrop. 

China: 

• For the sixth consecutive month, the central bank kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged. 
• The decision was in line with expectations as the economy seeks stability amid domestic challenges. 

Mexico: 

• FDI grew 14.5% year-over-year from January to September, surpassing $40 billion. 
• Economic activity showed no change in October, both month-over-month and compared with the same month in 2024. 

“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.” — Warren Buffett 

Key Upcoming Events: 

• U.S.: Beige Book release — 11/26 
• U.S.: Thanksgiving Day (market holiday) — 11/27 

Monitor

November 3–7

Markets reflected a week of steady interest rates, weaker manufacturing data, and resilience in services. In the United States, the government shutdown remains unresolved, while year-end spending shows a more moderate tone compared with 2024. 

United States: 
Concerns over AI valuations drove market sentiment. Manufacturing activity declined, but the services sector rebounded. The government shutdown set a new record, and year-end spending is expected to moderate. 

Europe: 
Eurozone manufacturing stalled due to a lack of new orders, although production continued to grow. The Bank of England kept its policy rate at 4%, as expected. 

Asia: 
In Japan, manufacturing posted its worst reading in more than a year, pressured by weak demand in autos and semiconductors. The services sector remained resilient despite a slower pace of new orders. 
In China, manufacturing activity fell to its lowest level in six months. Services expanded but at the slowest pace since July, mainly due to weaker export demand. 

Latin America: 
In Brazil, the Central Bank held its key rate at 15%, the highest level since 2006, indicating caution amid persistent inflationary pressures. 
In Mexico, Banco de México cut its policy rate to 7.25%, in line with expectations. September remittances fell 2.7% YoY, though they remain above $5 billion. 

“The investor’s chief problem — and even his worst enemy — is likely to be himself.” — Benjamin Graham 

Important Events: 

• U.S. October inflation data will be released — November 13 
• U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) will be published — November 14 

Monitor