Weekly Summary

Week of May 4 to May 8

A week marked by inflation pressures and slowing activity

Recent data point to a moderate growth environment with persistent cost pressures. Inflation driven by energy and geopolitical tensions continues to shape monetary policy decisions globally.

United States

• Strong earnings (83% beating estimates) drive profit growth to ~23%.
• Employment exceeds expectations but is slowing.
• PMI signals rising cost pressures that could pass through to inflation.

Europe

• Industrial costs remain elevated and services PMI drops to a 62-month low.
• In Germany, weakness in manufacturing and services increases recession risks.

Japan

• Services activity slows, while central bank minutes suggest potential rate hikes.
• Energy shocks are raising inflation risks and pressure on exports.

China

• Composite PMI improves on stronger demand, but input costs reach their highest levels since 2022, pressuring margins and growth sustainability.

Argentina

• Industrial activity rises 5.0% year-over-year, driven by chemicals. However, sectors such as machinery and textiles remain in contraction.

Brazil

• Industrial production rebounds 4.3%, reflecting the positive impact of rate cuts despite a more challenging global environment.

Mexico

• Banxico cuts rates to 6.50% and inflation slows.
• Investment falls 4.2%, signaling weaker momentum and pressure on future growth.

“Time is your friend, impulse is your enemy.” — John Bogle

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

• In the United States, Inflation data will be released — 05/12
• In the United States, PPI data will be released — 05/13

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Note: Returns as of 10 AM ET.

Week of April 27 to May 1

Stable rates, persistent inflation, and uneven growth define the week

Markets reflect stability in monetary policy, but with increasing divergence in growth and inflation. The geopolitical backdrop continues to pressure expectations and limit global economic visibility.

United States

The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75% with an 8–4 split, the largest since 1992. GDP grew 2.0%, driven by AI investment and government spending, but consumption is slowing. Confidence improved, though inflation pressures persist.

Europe

The ECB and BoE held rates but warned of inflation risks from energy. Inflation rose to 3%, while Germany’s economy grew 0.3%, reflecting modest expansion close to stagnation.

Japan

The BoJ kept rates at 0.75% amid internal division over inflation concerns. Retail sales rose 1.7%, driven by the automotive sector, signaling a gradual recovery in consumption.

China

Manufacturing PMI reached its highest level in a year. However, rising input costs from energy and metals are pressuring margins and the sustainability of growth.

Argentina

Fitch Ratings and Moody’s maintain a cautious outlook, highlighting risks from persistent inflation, institutional weakness, and reliance on fiscal adjustment.

Brazil

The central bank cut rates to 14.50%, supported by lower-than-expected inflation (4.37%). The easing cycle continues despite global uncertainty.

Mexico

GDP declined 0.8% in 1Q, with broad-based weakness. Despite record exports (+27.7%), external strength has yet to translate into domestic growth.

“All intelligent investing is value investing. Acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock.” – Charlie Munger

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

• In the United States, Services PMI will be released on 05/05
• In the United States, nonfarm payrolls will be released on 05/08

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Note: Returns as of April 30th at closing.

Week of April 20–24

Market stability, energy pressures, and mixed growth signals shaped the week.

Markets remained stable amid signs of easing geopolitical tensions. However, risks related to energy, inflation, and slowing growth persist across regions.

United States

Stable markets and strong consumption. A resilient labor market and tariff refunds support the outlook, while the Fed remains cautious.

Europe

Energy pressures push prices higher as investor confidence declines. Weak industrial signals contrast with some resilience in consumption.

Japan

Moderate inflation and strong export growth driven by technology demand, with pressure from higher energy imports.

China

Solid growth reduces the need for stimulus. Stable rates reflect confidence in current economic dynamics.

Argentina

Economic activity declines, led by weakness in manufacturing, highlighting a fragile economic environment.

Brazil

Positive export outlook, though dependent on the implementation of the EU trade agreement.

Mexico

Inflation moderates, but investment drops sharply. Consumption remains strong, reflecting a mixed economic outlook.

The week was shaped by diverging signals across regions. While the United States and China maintain positive dynamics, Europe and several emerging economies face structural challenges in energy, investment, and growth. Understanding these divergences is key to evaluating the global positioning of a portfolio.

Monitor

Source: Internal analysis based on market data as of April 24, 2025.

An introduction to this asset class

Private credit involves providing direct financing to companies outside the traditional banking system, with structures negotiated on a case-by-case basis. Its growth stems from post-crisis regulatory changes that limited banks’ ability to serve certain market segments, creating space for institutional investors and specialized managers to step in.

Appeal and considerations

Its primary appeal is the generation of recurring income through generally floating-rate instruments, which offer natural protection in high-rate environments. From a diversification standpoint, its low correlation with public assets can help reduce portfolio volatility. That said, it comes with lower liquidity and medium to long-term commitments.

Key factors to evaluate

Evaluating private credit requires attention to three factors: borrower quality, deal structure, and the stage of the economic cycle. Not all strategies are alike — some prioritize stability and income, while others take on higher risk in pursuit of greater returns. Identifying which approach aligns with portfolio objectives is the starting point for incorporating this asset class in a strategic way.

Source: JP Morgan

Week of April 13–17

Lower volatility, persistent inflation, and mixed growth signals shaped the week.

Markets experienced lower volatility amid expectations of easing geopolitical tensions. However, inflationary pressures persist alongside mixed growth signals across both developed and emerging economies.

United States

Lower volatility and the S&P 500 reached record highs. Moderate producer inflation and a resilient labor market support a growth environment with contained pressures.

Europe

Inflation rises due to energy, while industrial activity remains weak. The UK stands out with growth driven by services and construction.

Japan

Production grows marginally, and the BoJ may accelerate rate hikes. Slower growth is expected in the coming years.

China

Solid GDP growth, but mixed signals in consumption and employment point to an uneven recovery.

Argentina

Inflation remains elevated despite slight moderation, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic pressures.

Brazil

Consumption slows and industrial confidence declines, signaling deterioration in economic activity.

Mexico

Inflation pressures lead to price control measures. Trade risks rise amid potential changes to USMCA rules.

“Patience is not passive; it is concentrated strength.” – Bruce Lee

Key upcoming events

• Retail sales data to be released on April 21
• Employment-related data to be released on April 23

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Week of April 6–10

Inflation, energy dynamics, and geopolitical tensions shape the global markets outlook.

Markets are navigating a complex environment, with inflationary pressures tied to energy and ongoing geopolitical tensions weighing on growth prospects. The U.S. shows mixed signals, while Europe and emerging markets reflect slowing activity.

United States

Inflation rises on energy and the services PMI declines amid cost pressures. GDP is revised lower. The Fed keeps rate cuts on the table should inflation moderate or labor market conditions soften.

Europe

Producer inflation slows and consumption remains resilient. However, industrial orders and production in Germany point to economic stagnation.

Japan

Producer prices increase due to higher operating costs, reflecting pressure across industrial and transportation sectors.

China

Consumer inflation moderates, but producer prices rise driven by energy and raw materials, highlighting persistent cost pressures.

Argentina

Industrial production declines sharply across most sectors, reflecting broad-based economic weakness.

Brazil

Inflation rises, driven by fuel and food prices, amid global energy pressures.

Mexico

Inflation remains elevated and Banxico projects gradual convergence. Investment declines amid uncertainty and tight financial conditions.

“The longer you can extend your time horizon the less competitive the game becomes.” – Howard Marks

Key upcoming events

• In the United States, the Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on 04/14
• In the United States, Industrial Production data will be released on 04/16

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Week of March 30 to April 3

Inflation, energy dynamics, and mixed growth signals shaped global markets.

Markets reflect a complex environment, with inflationary pressures, geopolitical-driven volatility, and mixed growth signals. The U.S. remains resilient, while Europe faces higher costs and emerging markets show signs of slowdown.

United States

A quieter week, but with mixed signals: solid consumption, softer labor momentum, and rising cost pressures. Recession risk increases amid higher oil prices and tensions with Iran.

Europe

Inflation rises driven by energy and remains above the ECB target. Unemployment is stable, but job creation slows. The UK shows moderate growth.

Japan

Stable labor market, but weak consumption. Retail sales decline despite fiscal support, highlighting fragile domestic demand.

China

Manufacturing PMI improves, supported by public spending and AI demand, though input cost pressures remain elevated.

Argentina

Labor reform partially halted by court intervention, increasing regulatory uncertainty.

Brazil

Decline in producer prices suggests easing inflationary pressures ahead, supporting expectations of price stability.

Mexico

Banxico nears the end of its rate-cutting cycle. Risks persist from low growth and elevated inflation, with weak economic activity and exports.

“The two greatest enemies of the equity fund investor are expenses and emotions.” – Jhon Bogle

Key upcoming events

• In the United States, Manufacturing PMI will be released on 04/06
• In the United States, March inflation data will be released on 04/10

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Note: Short week due to festivities.

Week of March 23–27

Markets faced a week marked by geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures. While the U.S. shows labor market resilience, Europe and Japan present mixed signals, and emerging markets like Mexico face challenges in growth and inflation.

United States

Negotiations with Iran remain stalled despite a temporary truce. Manufacturing PMI hits an 11-month low; rising import prices reinforce expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates.

Europe

Manufacturing PMI improves, but the conflict increases costs and delays inputs. Business confidence declines amid uncertainty, particularly impacting the services sector.

Japan

Inflation falls below the BoJ target, but the central bank adopts a more hawkish tone amid inflation risks linked to a weaker yen and geopolitical tensions.

China

The semiconductor industry gains momentum driven by AI. It is projected to reach 41% of global capacity in key chips for autos and smartphones by 2028.

Argentina

Economic activity expands, supported by agriculture and fishing, offsetting weakness in industrial and commercial sectors.

Brazil

Consumer confidence improves, driven by better household financial expectations, though current conditions remain weak.

Mexico

Banxico cuts rates to 6.75% in a split decision. Inflation rises and economic activity declines, pointing to a slowdown with ongoing inflationary pressures.

“Everyone has the brainpower to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach.” – Peter Lynch

Key upcoming events

• In the United States, employment data will be released on 03/31
• In the United States, nonfarm payrolls will be released on 04/03

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Week of March 16–20

Financial markets remained volatile amid ongoing inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks. Monetary policy decisions and economic data continue to shape expectations for global growth.

United States

The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% amid persistent inflation and rising energy prices. It also eased bank capital rules, while the PPI surprised to the upside and jobless claims confirmed labor market strength.

Europe

Germany’s economic sentiment dropped sharply due to higher energy costs, although PPI declined on lower energy prices. The Bank of England held rates steady, while UK unemployment stabilized at elevated levels.

Japan

The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 0.75% and warned of upside inflation risks linked to oil prices. Exports rose for a sixth consecutive month, though supply chain risks remain due to higher energy costs.

China

Industrial production expanded, supported by technology and shipbuilding sectors. However, the housing market remains weak, with declining prices and unemployment rising above expectations.

Argentina

Unemployment rose to 7.5% in Q4 2025, while consumer confidence fell to levels last seen in October, reflecting a challenging economic environment.

Brazil

The central bank cut rates to 14.75%, less than expected, citing inflationary and geopolitical risks. Industrial confidence declined amid high interest rates and global uncertainty.

Mexico
The Mexican Banking Association revised down expectations for rate cuts due to global inflation risks. GDP growth is projected at 1.5% in 2026, still below potential. Key US PMI and labor data will be released this week.

“Never invest in a business you cannot understand.” – Warren Buffett

Key upcoming events

• In the United States, Manufacturing PMI will be released on 03/24
• In the United States, employment data will be released on 03/26

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Week of March 9–13

Markets are navigating geopolitical tensions, energy pressures, and diverging economic signals. While inflation is moderating in some economies, growth prospects and monetary policy remain influenced by ongoing global uncertainty.

United States
Volatility increased amid Middle East tensions and rising oil prices. Inflation held at 2.4%, while the trade deficit narrowed following record exports. Jobless claims declined, suggesting the labor market remains resilient.

Europe
German inflation eased to 1.9%, though core inflation remains elevated. Industrial production and exports declined. The ECB warned of inflation risks linked to higher oil prices, signaling a potentially less accommodative policy stance.

Japan
GDP grew 1.3% in 2025, driven by stronger investment and consumption. Producer inflation moderated to 2.0%, pointing to some stabilization in industrial costs.

China
Inflation rose to 1.3% due to Lunar New Year spending. Exports surged 21.8% in the first two months of the year, generating a large trade surplus supported by manufacturing and technology sectors.

Argentina
Inflation increased to 33.2% in February. Despite the monthly rise, it remains well below the country’s historical average, reflecting progress in macroeconomic stabilization.

Brazil
Annual inflation slowed to 3.81%, although monthly inflation rose due to seasonal factors. Retail sales grew 2.8% year-over-year, indicating resilient consumer demand.

Mexico
Inflation rose to 4.02%, with core inflation remaining elevated, potentially delaying interest rate cuts. The USMCA review and energy price dynamics will be key themes. Authorities agreed to keep regular gasoline prices stable.

“If you aren’t willing to own a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it for 10 minutes.”

– Warren BuffettForma

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

• In the United States, industrial production data will be released on 03/16.
• In the United States, the FEDs monetary policy decision will be released on 03/18.

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Returns as of 10 AM EST.