Weekly Summary

Economic perspectives: Key decisions and their global impacts. 

The impact of central bank decisions and global economic performance in early 2025. 

So far this year, global economies have shown mixed signals: 

  • United States: The Fed maintained the benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.5%, while Q4 2024 GDP grew 2.3%, marking a slowdown compared to previous quarters. 
     
  • Europe: The ECB cut the benchmark rate to 2.75% amid economic stagnation in the Eurozone. 
     
  • China: Manufacturing and services activity unexpectedly contracted, reinforcing expectations for new stimulus measures. 
     
  • Mexico: Exports grew 4.1% year-over-year in 2024, while Q4 2024 GDP declined by 0.6%, marking its first contraction since 2021. 

We invite you to analyze this data and consider its implications for your financial and strategic decisions. If you’d like more information or a detailed analysis, please feel free to contact us.


Important events in the next weeks 

  • In the United States, the manufacturing ISM will be released on 02/03. 
  •  In the United States, employment data will be released on 02/07. 

Monitor 

Global outlook: Economy and politics under new leadership.

Global Analysis: Politics, economy, and key trends in international markets.

The week was marked by the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States. He signed executive orders on immigration, energy, and security and announced the possibility of implementing a 25% tariff on products from Canada and Mexico, set to take effect on February 1. 

On the economic front, there was a slight increase in unemployment insurance claims. Meanwhile, the Q4 2024 earnings season had a strong start, with S&P 500 companies reporting an initial 5% growth in sales and a 17% increase in profits.  

In other global markets: 

• Europe: The ECB is expected to announce a rate cut next week, while consumer sentiment shows improvement. 

• Japan: The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark rate to 0.5%, aligning with expectations. 

• China: The People’s Bank of China kept interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive month. 

• Mexico: Inflation fell to its lowest level since 2021, and the IMF revised its 2024 growth forecast upward. 

These developments highlight the importance of staying vigilant regarding key movements in global politics and economics. 


Important events in the coming weeks 

  • In the United States, the Fed’s monetary policy announcement will be on 01/29 
  • In the United States, Q4 2024 GDP will be released on 01/30 

Monitor 

Economic Report: Global Insights for 2025

Key indicators mark the beginning of 2025: inflation, employment, and global challenges. 

The beginning of the year brings key data that impacts global markets and investment decisions. Here are some of the main highlights: 

  • United States: Strong job growth with 256,000 new positions in December and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. However, persistent inflation has pushed 10-year treasury yields to 4.74%. 
  • Europe: Inflation in the Eurozone rose to 2.4% annually in December, with Germany reporting figures above the ECB’s target. Economic activity continues to contract, reinforcing challenges in the region. 
  • Asia: In China, government measures to boost household consumption include subsidies for appliances and digital goods. In Japan, growth in services has been driven by local demand. 
  • Latin America: In Mexico, annual inflation of December hit its lowest level since 2021 (4.21%), opening the door for potential rate cuts. In Argentina, the country risk fell to its lowest level since 2018, reflecting increased confidence in its assets. 

Key events in the coming weeks 

  • In China, international trade figures will be released on 01/13. 
  • In the U.S, inflation and retail sales data will be released on 01/15–16. 

Monitor 

Key economic and market developments: A global perspective.

The first week of the year highlighted the resilience of the housing market in the U.S. and contractions in manufacturing in Europe and Asia. Key points:

Weekly Summary 

United States: The week was marked by low market activity due to New Year celebrations. Regarding economic data: Pending home sales in November reached their highest level in 21 months and home prices increased by 3.6% year-over-year. 

Europe: In Germany and France, industrial activity declined in December. Similarly, in the United Kingdom, manufacturing activity contracted at the fastest pace in 11 months. 

Asia: In China, President Xi Jinping reiterated the need for more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies in 2025 to counter economic slowdown. 

Latin America: According to the Bank of Mexico, international reserves hit a historic high in 2024, totaling $228.789 billion and PEMEX reported a 35% decrease in oil shipments to the U.S. through November of last year. 

Important events in the next weeks 

  • In the United States, the ISM Services Index will be released on 01/07. 
  • In the United States, employment indicators will be published on 01/10. 

Monitor 

Key Fed decisions and changes in the global economy

Summary of key events: Fed rate cuts, elections in Germany, and mixed data from Asia impacting global markets. 

Week of December 16 to 20 

We bring you the most relevant events shaping the global economic landscape: 

United States: 

  • The Fed reduced its benchmark interest rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%, returning to December 2022 levels. According to the “dot plot,” only two additional cuts are expected by 2025. 
  • Congress reached a funding agreement to prevent a government shutdown, valid through March, despite opposition from President-elect Donald Trump. 

Europe: 

  • Inflation in the UK reached 2.6% year-over-year in November, aligning with expectations, while the Bank of England kept its rate at 4.75%. 
  • Germany will hold early elections in February following a vote of no confidence in Chancellor Scholz. 

Asia: 

  • Japan’s manufacturing sector is contracting, but its services industry partially offsets the decline. 
  • In China, while industrial production grew by 5.4% year-over-year in November, retail sales hit their weakest point in three months. 

Latin America: 

  • In Brazil, the real fell to its lowest level in two years, while Credit Default Swaps reached a 14-month high due to fiscal uncertainty. 
  • Mexico received a stable rating from S&P, highlighting its macroeconomic prudence and fiscal stability. 

Weekly Summary 
Key events in the coming weeks 

  • In the United States, consumer confidence data will be released on 12/23. 
  • In the United States, the week will be shortened due to the Christmas holiday on 12/25. 

Monitor 

Global economic update: United States, Europe, and more.

Decline in consumer confidence in the U.S., interest rate cuts in China and Mexico, and more. Check out the weekly financial summary.

  • United States: Consumer confidence recorded its largest drop in three years in September. However, the economy grew at an annualized rate of 3% in Q2 2024, and unemployment claims decreased to 218,000.
  • Europe: In Germany, business activity fell to a seven-month low, and business sentiment contracted for the fourth consecutive month. The Swiss National Bank cut its interest rate to 1%.
  • Japan: Manufacturing activity slightly declined, although the services sector remained strong, supporting economic growth.
  • China: The People’s Bank of China lowered interest rates and implemented another round of significant stimulus to bolster the economy.
  • Mexico: The Bank of Mexico cut the benchmark rate to 10.5%. Inflation continued to slow, and the economy grew by 2% year-on-year in July, driven by the primary sector.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

  • In the United States, ISM manufacturing and services indicators will be released on 10/01 – 03.
  • In the United States, employment figures will be announced on 10/04.

Monitor

Weekly Summary: Major Developments in the Economic and Financial Landscape

The dynamism of global finance and markets never slows. Below is an overview of the most important events:

  • United States: In August, retail sales grew 0.1%, with online sales leading with 1.4%. The Fed made an aggressive move, cutting the interest rate by 50 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.75% – 5.0%.
  • Europe: The Bank of England kept rates steady at 5%. In the UK, overall inflation stood at 2.2%, while inflation in the services sector reached 5.6%.
  • Japan: Export growth slowed to 5.6%, driven by weaker shipments to the United States.
  • Argentina: The economy contracted by 1.7% in Q2, marking the third consecutive quarterly decline, despite growth in the agricultural sector.
  • Brazil: The Central Bank raised the Selic rate by 25 basis points to 10.75%, with further increases expected to curb inflation.
  • Mexico: The IMEF downgraded its GDP growth forecast to 1.5% for 2024 and 1.3% for 2025.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

  • In the United States, several Fed members will deliver speeches from September 23 to 26.
  • The latest revision of Q2 2024 GDP for the United States will be released on September 26.

Monitor

Weekly Summary: Finance and Economics

The global economy and finance have experienced significant movements in recent days. Here’s a summary of the most relevant events:

  • In the U.S, August inflation was in line with expectations and reached its lowest level since February 2021.
  • Monetary easing in Europe, with no clarity on the next move. The ECB cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 base points for the second time, placing it at 3.5%.
  • In China, mixed economic figures, highlighting the dynamism of international trade.
  • Downward revision of economic growth in Japan due to lower corporate investment and private consumption.
  • Approval of the judicial reform in the Senate. This reform makes Mexico the first country to elect all its judges by popular vote.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

  • In the United States, retail sales will be released on 09/17.
  • The Fed’s monetary policy announcement will be on 09/18.

Monitor:

Weekly Summary: Finance and Economics

The global economy and financial markets have seen significant movements in recent days. Here’s a summary of the most relevant events:

United States:

  • Non-farm payrolls added 142,000 new jobs (less than the estimated 161,000). The unemployment rate reached 4.2%, as expected.

Eurozone:

  • Manufacturing activity remained in contraction, suggesting that the recovery might be losing momentum.

China:

  • The manufacturing sector fell to a six-month low and has recorded negative readings for four consecutive months.

Japan:

  • The Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates if the economy and inflation perform as expected.

Mexico:

  • Congress approved the constitutional reform to the Judiciary. It will now be discussed in the Senate.

Important upcoming events:

  • In the United States, inflation data will be released on 09/11.
  • ECB monetary policy announcement on 09/12.

Monitor:

Weekly summary: U.S. grows, Germany shows mixed figures. 

Here’s this week economic outlook.

  • U.S.: With a 3% GDP growth in the second quarter and a decrease in jobless claims, consumer confidence is on the rise. 
  • Germany: Despite a drop in inflation to 2%, consumer distrust persists. With a quarterly contraction of 0.1%, Germany adjusts its economic pace. 
  • Japan: Facing inflation, the Bank of Japan remains firm on its interest rate increase stance. 
  • China: Industrial companies saw a 4.1% increase in profits thanks to high-tech manufacturing. 
  • Argentina: At risk of meeting its national debt payment, Moody’s foresees a possible restructuring. 
  • Brazil: With an annual inflation rate of 4.35% during the first half of August, the country remains close to its 4.33% estimate. The Central Bank has a new monetary policy director. 
  • Mexico: Víctor Rodríguez Padilla will be the new director of Pemex. Banxico adjusts its growth estimates to 1.5%. 

Important events next week 

United States 

  • ISM manufacturing data will be released on September 3rd. 
  • Employment indicators will be published on September 6th. 

Monitor 

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