Weekly Summary

Weekly Global Outlook

Week of June 15–19

Central banks remain cautious as the global economy shows diverging signals

The week was marked by monetary policy decisions, persistent inflationary pressures, and mixed growth signals. While some central banks maintained a cautious stance, economic activity reflected contrasting trends across regions as investors continued to monitor interest rate and inflation developments.

United States

The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, removed its easing bias, and projected a median policy rate of 3.8% for 2026. Consumer spending surprised to the upside, while housing and manufacturing showed weakness.

Europe

The Bank of England held rates at 3.75%, and Eurozone inflation remained at 3.2%. Germany showed improving economic sentiment, although the construction sector remains under pressure.

Japan

The BoJ raised its policy rate to 1.0%, the highest level since 1995. Inflation increased modestly, while exports rose 17%, driven by semiconductors and AI-related technology.

China

Consumer activity showed signs of weakness, with declines in retail sales and urban investment. However, industrial production and labor market indicators pointed to greater stability.

Argentina

Consumer confidence rose 6.4% in June, supported by improved expectations and a recovery in sentiment toward durable goods and real estate.

Brazil

Brazil’s central bank lowered its policy rate to 14.25% but warned that inflation remains a key risk. Retail sales declined, reflecting softer economic activity.

Mexico

Mexico, the United States, and Canada will formally begin the USMCA review process on July 1, marking a key step for North American economic integration.

“If a business does well, the stock eventually follows.” — Warren Buffett

Key Upcoming Events

• In the United States, employment related data will be released 06/23
• In the United States, Q1 final growth data will be released 06/25

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Note: Returns as of June 18th at closing.

Global Weekly Outlook

Week of June 8–12

Persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions continue to shape markets

The week was marked by higher inflation across several economies, energy-related pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict, and mixed growth signals. Despite these challenges, some sectors continue to demonstrate resilience, while investors remain focused on monetary policy decisions.

United States

Inflation rose to 4.2%, while PPI reached its highest level since 2022. However, home sales remained strong, and SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history.

Europe

The ECB raised rates to 2.25% and revised its inflation outlook higher. Germany saw inflation moderate, while the UK recorded its first economic contraction since August.

Japan

GDP exceeded expectations, supported by consumer spending and exports. However, producer prices rose 6.3%, reflecting the impact of higher energy costs.

China

Inflation remained stable, but producer prices reached their highest level since 2022. Energy and commodity costs continue to pressure industrial margins.

Argentina

Inflation edged up to 33.6% year-over-year in May. Despite the increase, it remains well below levels seen in recent years.

Brazil

Inflation reached 4.72%, exceeding expectations and marking its highest level since September, driven by food and energy prices.

Mexico

Inflation returned to Banxico’s target range and producer prices moderated. However, automotive production declined, although exports continued to grow.

“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.” — Shelby Cullom Davis

Key Upcoming Events

• In the United States, industrial production data will be released 06/15
• In the United States, the FED monetary policy decision will be released on 06/17

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Note: Returns as of 10 AM ET.

Week of May 25–29 

Markets remain resilient despite ongoing inflationary and geopolitical challenges

Markets ended the week on a more constructive note, supported by moderating oil prices and strong corporate earnings. However, inflation remains above central bank targets, while geopolitical tensions continue to shape the global economic outlook.

United States

Markets advanced, supported by lower oil prices and S&P 500 earnings growth of 28.4%, the strongest pace since 2021. Inflation remains elevated, while consumer confidence continues to face pressure.

Europe

The ECB remains cautious amid still-elevated inflation. Although consumer confidence improved, economic sentiment remains weak and core inflation continues to run above target.

Japan

Retail sales and employment exceeded expectations. Consumption remains resilient, supported by government stimulus measures and a strong labor market.

China

Industrial profits increased 24.7%, driven by technology, electronics, and energy, reflecting a more favorable recovery in strategic sectors.

Argentina

Inflation expectations continue to moderate. Authorities anticipate monthly inflation below April levels, easing concerns over exchange-rate pressures.

Brazil

GDP exceeded expectations, supported by investment and consumer spending. However, producer prices continue to reflect pressures stemming from the global energy environment.

Mexico

Banxico lowered its 2026 growth forecast. Nevertheless, exports and foreign direct investment reached record levels, supporting economic activity.

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” — John Maynard Keynes

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

• In the United States, manufacturing PMI will be released 06/01
• In the United States, nonfarm payrolls will be released on 06/05

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Note: Returns as of 10 AM ET.

Week of May 18 to May 22

A week marked by inflation pressures, rising rates, and mixed growth signals

Markets are facing a more restrictive environment, with persistent inflationary pressures and rising interest rates. While some economies show resilience, others reflect a slowdown, amid ongoing geopolitical risks.

United States

• Fed Minutes point to potential rate hikes.
• 30-year yields surpass 5%.
• Earnings grow ~28%, but housing weakens.
• Labor market remains resilient.

Europe

• Eurozone inflation rises to 3.0% driven by energy.
• UK inflation moderates, but unemployment increases.
• Germany grows in line with expectations, with rising cost pressures.

Japan

• GDP exceeds expectations, but energy costs threaten growth.
• Inflation falls to 1.4%, remaining below the central bank’s target.

China

• Retail sales and industrial production slow.
• Weak domestic demand reflects softer consumption and manufacturing momentum.

Argentina

• Economic activity rebounds to 5.5%, reversing the previous contraction and signaling recovery.

Brazil

• Economic activity declines monthly but maintains 3.1% annual growth, reflecting partial resilience.

Mexico

• Moody’s downgrades rating to Baa3.
• Growth remains moderate, supported by services and easing inflation.

“Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.” — Warren Buffett

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

• In the United States, markets will remain closed for Memorial Day 05/25
• In the United States, employment related data will be released 05/27

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Note: Returns as of 10 AM ET.

Source: JP Morgan

Week of May 11 to May 15

A week marked by elevated inflation and mixed growth signals

Recent data point to a backdrop of persistent inflation driven by energy and geopolitical tensions. Despite this, consumption remains resilient in some economies, while growth is losing momentum in others.

United States
Inflation rises to 3.8% and PPI to 6.0%, driven by energy. Consumption remains resilient, but housing is slowing. Markets scale back rate cut expectations and increase the probability of hikes.

Europe
Eurozone GDP grows 0.8%, impacted by energy. Germany faces rising inflation and costs, while the UK surprises with stronger growth, although investment remains weak.

Japan
Producer prices rise to 4.9%, the highest since 2023. Energy costs are increasing inflationary pressures and influencing BoJ policy.

China
Inflation rises to 1.2% and PPI to 2.8%, driven by energy. Cost pressures could pass through to global prices despite weak food demand.

Argentina
Inflation slows to 32.4% year-over-year. While still elevated, it shows a moderating trend compared to previous levels.

Brazil
Inflation rises to 4.39%, driven by food and transportation. The figure remains below expectations, reflecting contained pressures.

Mexico
Employment grows but remains below required levels. Industrial activity contracts, while the automotive sector stands out as a key driver due to export strength.

“Patience is not passive; it is concentrated strength.” – Bruce Lee

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

• In the United States, the FED minutes will be released on 05/20
• In the United States, employment related data will be released on 05/21

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Note: Returns as of 10 AM ET.

Week of May 4 to May 8

A week marked by inflation pressures and slowing activity

Recent data point to a moderate growth environment with persistent cost pressures. Inflation driven by energy and geopolitical tensions continues to shape monetary policy decisions globally.

United States

• Strong earnings (83% beating estimates) drive profit growth to ~23%.
• Employment exceeds expectations but is slowing.
• PMI signals rising cost pressures that could pass through to inflation.

Europe

• Industrial costs remain elevated and services PMI drops to a 62-month low.
• In Germany, weakness in manufacturing and services increases recession risks.

Japan

• Services activity slows, while central bank minutes suggest potential rate hikes.
• Energy shocks are raising inflation risks and pressure on exports.

China

• Composite PMI improves on stronger demand, but input costs reach their highest levels since 2022, pressuring margins and growth sustainability.

Argentina

• Industrial activity rises 5.0% year-over-year, driven by chemicals. However, sectors such as machinery and textiles remain in contraction.

Brazil

• Industrial production rebounds 4.3%, reflecting the positive impact of rate cuts despite a more challenging global environment.

Mexico

• Banxico cuts rates to 6.50% and inflation slows.
• Investment falls 4.2%, signaling weaker momentum and pressure on future growth.

“Time is your friend, impulse is your enemy.” — John Bogle

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

• In the United States, Inflation data will be released — 05/12
• In the United States, PPI data will be released — 05/13

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Note: Returns as of 10 AM ET.

Week of April 27 to May 1

Stable rates, persistent inflation, and uneven growth define the week

Markets reflect stability in monetary policy, but with increasing divergence in growth and inflation. The geopolitical backdrop continues to pressure expectations and limit global economic visibility.

United States

The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75% with an 8–4 split, the largest since 1992. GDP grew 2.0%, driven by AI investment and government spending, but consumption is slowing. Confidence improved, though inflation pressures persist.

Europe

The ECB and BoE held rates but warned of inflation risks from energy. Inflation rose to 3%, while Germany’s economy grew 0.3%, reflecting modest expansion close to stagnation.

Japan

The BoJ kept rates at 0.75% amid internal division over inflation concerns. Retail sales rose 1.7%, driven by the automotive sector, signaling a gradual recovery in consumption.

China

Manufacturing PMI reached its highest level in a year. However, rising input costs from energy and metals are pressuring margins and the sustainability of growth.

Argentina

Fitch Ratings and Moody’s maintain a cautious outlook, highlighting risks from persistent inflation, institutional weakness, and reliance on fiscal adjustment.

Brazil

The central bank cut rates to 14.50%, supported by lower-than-expected inflation (4.37%). The easing cycle continues despite global uncertainty.

Mexico

GDP declined 0.8% in 1Q, with broad-based weakness. Despite record exports (+27.7%), external strength has yet to translate into domestic growth.

“All intelligent investing is value investing. Acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock.” – Charlie Munger

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

• In the United States, Services PMI will be released on 05/05
• In the United States, nonfarm payrolls will be released on 05/08

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Note: Returns as of April 30th at closing.

Week of April 20–24

Market stability, energy pressures, and mixed growth signals shaped the week.

Markets remained stable amid signs of easing geopolitical tensions. However, risks related to energy, inflation, and slowing growth persist across regions.

United States

Stable markets and strong consumption. A resilient labor market and tariff refunds support the outlook, while the Fed remains cautious.

Europe

Energy pressures push prices higher as investor confidence declines. Weak industrial signals contrast with some resilience in consumption.

Japan

Moderate inflation and strong export growth driven by technology demand, with pressure from higher energy imports.

China

Solid growth reduces the need for stimulus. Stable rates reflect confidence in current economic dynamics.

Argentina

Economic activity declines, led by weakness in manufacturing, highlighting a fragile economic environment.

Brazil

Positive export outlook, though dependent on the implementation of the EU trade agreement.

Mexico

Inflation moderates, but investment drops sharply. Consumption remains strong, reflecting a mixed economic outlook.

The week was shaped by diverging signals across regions. While the United States and China maintain positive dynamics, Europe and several emerging economies face structural challenges in energy, investment, and growth. Understanding these divergences is key to evaluating the global positioning of a portfolio.

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Source: Internal analysis based on market data as of April 24, 2025.

An introduction to this asset class

Private credit involves providing direct financing to companies outside the traditional banking system, with structures negotiated on a case-by-case basis. Its growth stems from post-crisis regulatory changes that limited banks’ ability to serve certain market segments, creating space for institutional investors and specialized managers to step in.

Appeal and considerations

Its primary appeal is the generation of recurring income through generally floating-rate instruments, which offer natural protection in high-rate environments. From a diversification standpoint, its low correlation with public assets can help reduce portfolio volatility. That said, it comes with lower liquidity and medium to long-term commitments.

Key factors to evaluate

Evaluating private credit requires attention to three factors: borrower quality, deal structure, and the stage of the economic cycle. Not all strategies are alike — some prioritize stability and income, while others take on higher risk in pursuit of greater returns. Identifying which approach aligns with portfolio objectives is the starting point for incorporating this asset class in a strategic way.

Source: JP Morgan

Week of April 13–17

Lower volatility, persistent inflation, and mixed growth signals shaped the week.

Markets experienced lower volatility amid expectations of easing geopolitical tensions. However, inflationary pressures persist alongside mixed growth signals across both developed and emerging economies.

United States

Lower volatility and the S&P 500 reached record highs. Moderate producer inflation and a resilient labor market support a growth environment with contained pressures.

Europe

Inflation rises due to energy, while industrial activity remains weak. The UK stands out with growth driven by services and construction.

Japan

Production grows marginally, and the BoJ may accelerate rate hikes. Slower growth is expected in the coming years.

China

Solid GDP growth, but mixed signals in consumption and employment point to an uneven recovery.

Argentina

Inflation remains elevated despite slight moderation, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic pressures.

Brazil

Consumption slows and industrial confidence declines, signaling deterioration in economic activity.

Mexico

Inflation pressures lead to price control measures. Trade risks rise amid potential changes to USMCA rules.

“Patience is not passive; it is concentrated strength.” – Bruce Lee

Key upcoming events

• Retail sales data to be released on April 21
• Employment-related data to be released on April 23

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