Weekly Summary

Here’s this week economic outlook.

• U.S.: With a 3% GDP growth in the second quarter and a decrease in jobless claims, consumer confidence is on the rise. 

• Germany: Despite a drop in inflation to 2%, consumer distrust persists. With a quarterly contraction of 0.1%, Germany adjusts its economic pace. 

• Japan: Facing inflation, the Bank of Japan remains firm on its interest rate increase stance. 

• China: Industrial companies saw a 4.1% increase in profits thanks to high-tech manufacturing. 

• Argentina: At risk of meeting its national debt payment, Moody’s foresees a possible restructuring. 

• Brazil: With an annual inflation rate of 4.35% during the first half of August, the country remains close to its 4.33% estimate. The Central Bank has a new monetary policy director. 

• Mexico: Víctor Rodríguez Padilla will be the new director of Pemex. Banxico adjusts its growth estimates to 1.5%. 

Important events next week 

United States 

• ISM manufacturing data will be released on September 3rd. 
• Employment indicators will be published on September 6th. 

Monitor 

Discover the most significant data and events that impacted the markets this week. 

Weekly Economic Summary 

• Interest Rate Perspective: Jerome Powell suggested a possible gradual rate cut starting in September at Jackson Hole. The Fed’s minutes and the decline in inflation support this expectation. 

• Recession and Employment in the U.S.: Goldman Sachs reduces the recession probability to 20%. The economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than estimated, adjusting the monthly job creation figure to 174,000. 

• Eurozone: Unexpected economic strength in August, driven by the Paris Olympics. 

• China: The People’s Bank of China keeps interest rates at historic lows (3.35% for loans and 3.85% for mortgages). 

• Argentina: Economic activity fell by 3.9% year-on-year in June. Construction dropped by 24%, but the agricultural and livestock sectors grew by over 82%. 

• Mexico: 
  • Growth Estimate: ECLAC lowers its 2024 forecast to 1.9%, down from the previous 2.5%.

Important Events Next Week: 

• In the U.S., Consumer Confidence will be released on 08/27. 
• In the U.S., the second estimate of Q2 2024 GDP will be published on 08/29. 

Monitor

Summary of key economic events and top financial news of the week.  

Week’s highlights: 

• United States: Inflation increased by 0.2% in July, bringing the annual rate to 2.9%, the lowest level since March 2021. Retail sales increased by 1% month-over-month, marking its biggest rise since early 2023. 

• United Kingdom: Annual inflation reached 2.2% in July, slightly below expectations but still above the Bank of England’s 2% target. The UK’s GDP grew by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2024, maintaining a strong pace following the 0.7% growth recorded in the first quarter. 

• Europe: The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 base points in September and December. 

• Japan: Producer price inflation reached its highest pace in 11 months, growing 3% annually in July, driven by rising raw material costs due to the weakening yen. 

• Mexico: International tourism Currencies grew by 36.3% in the first half of the year compared to pre-pandemic levels, reaching over $16.27 billion. 

Next week’s highlights: 

• In the U.S: Release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes on August 21. 
• In the U.S: The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium will take place from August 22 to August 24. 

Monitor