Weekly Summary

The first week of the year highlighted the resilience of the housing market in the U.S. and contractions in manufacturing in Europe and Asia. Key points:

Week of December 30 2024 to January 3 2025 

Weekly Summary 

United States: The week was marked by low market activity due to New Year celebrations. Regarding economic data: Pending home sales in November reached their highest level in 21 months and home prices increased by 3.6% year-over-year. 

Europe: In Germany and France, industrial activity declined in December. Similarly, in the United Kingdom, manufacturing activity contracted at the fastest pace in 11 months. 

Asia: In China, President Xi Jinping reiterated the need for more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies in 2025 to counter economic slowdown. 

Latin America: According to the Bank of Mexico, international reserves hit a historic high in 2024, totaling $228.789 billion and PEMEX reported a 35% decrease in oil shipments to the U.S. through November of last year. 

Important events in the next weeks 

• In the United States, the ISM Services Index will be released on 01/07. 
• In the United States, employment indicators will be published on 01/10. 

Monitor 

Summary of key events: Fed rate cuts, elections in Germany, and mixed data from Asia impacting global markets. 

Week of December 16 to 20 

We bring you the most relevant events shaping the global economic landscape: 

United States: 

• The Fed reduced its benchmark interest rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%, returning to December 2022 levels. According to the “dot plot,” only two additional cuts are expected by 2025. 
• Congress reached a funding agreement to prevent a government shutdown, valid through March, despite opposition from President-elect Donald Trump. 

Europe: 

• Inflation in the UK reached 2.6% year-over-year in November, aligning with expectations, while the Bank of England kept its rate at 4.75%. 
• Germany will hold early elections in February following a vote of no confidence in Chancellor Scholz. 

Asia: 

• Japan’s manufacturing sector is contracting, but its services industry partially offsets the decline. 
• In China, while industrial production grew by 5.4% year-over-year in November, retail sales hit their weakest point in three months. 

Latin America: 

• In Brazil, the real fell to its lowest level in two years, while Credit Default Swaps reached a 14-month high due to fiscal uncertainty. 
• Mexico received a stable rating from S&P, highlighting its macroeconomic prudence and fiscal stability. 

Weekly Summary 
Key events in the coming weeks 

• In the United States, consumer confidence data will be released on 12/23. 
• In the United States, the week will be shortened due to the Christmas holiday on 12/25. 

Monitor 

Decline in consumer confidence in the U.S., interest rate cuts in China and Mexico, and more. Check out the weekly financial summary.

• United States: Consumer confidence recorded its largest drop in three years in September. However, the economy grew at an annualized rate of 3% in Q2 2024, and unemployment claims decreased to 218,000.

• Europe: In Germany, business activity fell to a seven-month low, and business sentiment contracted for the fourth consecutive month. The Swiss National Bank cut its interest rate to 1%.

• Japan: Manufacturing activity slightly declined, although the services sector remained strong, supporting economic growth.

• China: The People’s Bank of China lowered interest rates and implemented another round of significant stimulus to bolster the economy.

• Mexico: The Bank of Mexico cut the benchmark rate to 10.5%. Inflation continued to slow, and the economy grew by 2% year-on-year in July, driven by the primary sector.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, ISM manufacturing and services indicators will be released on 10/01 – 03.
• In the United States, employment figures will be announced on 10/04.

Monitor

The dynamism of global finance and markets never slows. Below is an overview of the most important events:

• United States: In August, retail sales grew 0.1%, with online sales leading with 1.4%. The Fed made an aggressive move, cutting the interest rate by 50 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.75% – 5.0%.

• Europe: The Bank of England kept rates steady at 5%. In the UK, overall inflation stood at 2.2%, while inflation in the services sector reached 5.6%.

• Japan: Export growth slowed to 5.6%, driven by weaker shipments to the United States.

• Argentina: The economy contracted by 1.7% in Q2, marking the third consecutive quarterly decline, despite growth in the agricultural sector.

• Brazil: The Central Bank raised the Selic rate by 25 basis points to 10.75%, with further increases expected to curb inflation.

• Mexico: The IMEF downgraded its GDP growth forecast to 1.5% for 2024 and 1.3% for 2025.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, several Fed members will deliver speeches from September 23 to 26.
• The latest revision of Q2 2024 GDP for the United States will be released on September 26.

Monitor

The global economy and finance have experienced significant movements in recent days. Here’s a summary of the most relevant events:

• In the U.S, August inflation was in line with expectations and reached its lowest level since February 2021.

• Monetary easing in Europe, with no clarity on the next move. The ECB cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 base points for the second time, placing it at 3.5%.

• In China, mixed economic figures, highlighting the dynamism of international trade.

• Downward revision of economic growth in Japan due to lower corporate investment and private consumption.

• Approval of the judicial reform in the Senate. This reform makes Mexico the first country to elect all its judges by popular vote.

Important Events in the Coming Weeks

• In the United States, retail sales will be released on 09/17.
• The Fed’s monetary policy announcement will be on 09/18.

Monitor:

The global economy and financial markets have seen significant movements in recent days. Here’s a summary of the most relevant events:

United States:

• Non-farm payrolls added 142,000 new jobs (less than the estimated 161,000). The unemployment rate reached 4.2%, as expected.

Eurozone:

• Manufacturing activity remained in contraction, suggesting that the recovery might be losing momentum.

China:

• The manufacturing sector fell to a six-month low and has recorded negative readings for four consecutive months.

Japan:

• The Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates if the economy and inflation perform as expected.

Mexico:

• Congress approved the constitutional reform to the Judiciary. It will now be discussed in the Senate.

Important upcoming events:

• In the United States, inflation data will be released on 09/11.
• ECB monetary policy announcement on 09/12.

Monitor:

Here’s this week economic outlook.

• U.S.: With a 3% GDP growth in the second quarter and a decrease in jobless claims, consumer confidence is on the rise. 

• Germany: Despite a drop in inflation to 2%, consumer distrust persists. With a quarterly contraction of 0.1%, Germany adjusts its economic pace. 

• Japan: Facing inflation, the Bank of Japan remains firm on its interest rate increase stance. 

• China: Industrial companies saw a 4.1% increase in profits thanks to high-tech manufacturing. 

• Argentina: At risk of meeting its national debt payment, Moody’s foresees a possible restructuring. 

• Brazil: With an annual inflation rate of 4.35% during the first half of August, the country remains close to its 4.33% estimate. The Central Bank has a new monetary policy director. 

• Mexico: Víctor Rodríguez Padilla will be the new director of Pemex. Banxico adjusts its growth estimates to 1.5%. 

Important events next week 

United States 

• ISM manufacturing data will be released on September 3rd. 
• Employment indicators will be published on September 6th. 

Monitor 

Discover the most significant data and events that impacted the markets this week. 

Weekly Economic Summary 

• Interest Rate Perspective: Jerome Powell suggested a possible gradual rate cut starting in September at Jackson Hole. The Fed’s minutes and the decline in inflation support this expectation. 

• Recession and Employment in the U.S.: Goldman Sachs reduces the recession probability to 20%. The economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than estimated, adjusting the monthly job creation figure to 174,000. 

• Eurozone: Unexpected economic strength in August, driven by the Paris Olympics. 

• China: The People’s Bank of China keeps interest rates at historic lows (3.35% for loans and 3.85% for mortgages). 

• Argentina: Economic activity fell by 3.9% year-on-year in June. Construction dropped by 24%, but the agricultural and livestock sectors grew by over 82%. 

• Mexico: 
  • Growth Estimate: ECLAC lowers its 2024 forecast to 1.9%, down from the previous 2.5%.

Important Events Next Week: 

• In the U.S., Consumer Confidence will be released on 08/27. 
• In the U.S., the second estimate of Q2 2024 GDP will be published on 08/29. 

Monitor

Summary of key economic events and top financial news of the week.  

Week’s highlights: 

• United States: Inflation increased by 0.2% in July, bringing the annual rate to 2.9%, the lowest level since March 2021. Retail sales increased by 1% month-over-month, marking its biggest rise since early 2023. 

• United Kingdom: Annual inflation reached 2.2% in July, slightly below expectations but still above the Bank of England’s 2% target. The UK’s GDP grew by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2024, maintaining a strong pace following the 0.7% growth recorded in the first quarter. 

• Europe: The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 base points in September and December. 

• Japan: Producer price inflation reached its highest pace in 11 months, growing 3% annually in July, driven by rising raw material costs due to the weakening yen. 

• Mexico: International tourism Currencies grew by 36.3% in the first half of the year compared to pre-pandemic levels, reaching over $16.27 billion. 

Next week’s highlights: 

• In the U.S: Release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes on August 21. 
• In the U.S: The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium will take place from August 22 to August 24. 

Monitor