Rebellion in Russia What’s next?

Following the social events that arose in Russia with the emergence of the private military entity known as the Wagner Group, here is a summary in FAQ format sharing the impressions expressed by former Secretary of State during the George W. Bush administration and Russia expert Condolezza Rice, during an event with JP Morgan, on this topic, and an update on the war in Ukraine. 

• What is the Wagner Group? Rice explained that the Wagner Group is a private mercenary army that has been fighting alongside the regular Russian army in Ukraine. The Wagner Group (officially called PMC Wagner) was first identified in 2014, when it was backing pro-Russian separatist forces in eastern Ukraine. At the time it was a secretive organization, operating mainly in Africa and the Middle East, and is believed to have only around 5,000 troops. Since then, it has grown considerably, with about 50,000 troops. The current head is Yevgeny Prigozhin, a businessman focused on providing catering services to the government.
• Why did tensions with the Russian government emerge? Rice explained that the rebellion of the Wagner Group (known as the march of justice) took place between June 23 – 24, 2023, when the group took over military installations in the southwest of the country, and advanced towards Moscow, coming within 200 km of the capital. In this regard, Prigozhin affirmed that Russia’s justification for its war in Ukraine was a lie and only an excuse for the Minister of Defense, to promote himself and emphasized that it has failed in Ukraine. These actions and comments were highly criticized by the government and labeled as treason by Vladimir Putin.
• What is the current state of the war in Ukraine? According to Rice, the war is not going well for the Russians, as they have not achieved their initial objectives and are engaged in a slow and difficult battle, where a Ukrainian counteroffensive is on the horizon. Additionally, Rice explained that Putin had allowed infighting within Russian military and defense circles as long as they did not directly criticize him. However, the actions of the Wagner Group (which was not under the control of the Defense Ministry or Putin himself), became a concern when they began to challenge his authority. 
• Could Russia win without the support of the Wagner Group? Regardless of the current conflict with the government, former Secretary Rice expressed that she doubts that the Wagner Group would be integrated into the regular Russian armed forces as they are considered brutal criminal elements. Moreover, she believes that Russia cannot win the war in Ukraine and suggests that the country has already lost in many ways. Under this context, she criticized Putin’s narrative and asserted that his credibility has been damaged. Contrarily, this situation empowers and increases support for Ukraine. She mentions that some were skeptical about Ukraine’s offensive, but recent events have changed perceptions.

• What are the implications for China? Rice suggests that China must be questioning its relationship with Russia, considering the current situation. She mentions that China will not openly criticize Russia, although they are probably concerned about the consequences of the conflict and the impact this could have on their economic growth in the face of a potential scenario of new sanctions. With respect to the relationship with the United States, Rice highlighted her concern over the deteriorating relationship with China, attributed in large part to the aggressive and ideological actions of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Therefore, it will be necessary to promote dialogue and channels of communication to reduce hostility between the two nations.

In her final remarks, Rice pointed out that while Russia may not have the support of the Wagner Group, the reality is that it is unclear how the conflict will ultimately play out, as well as the negotiations and possible territorial considerations because things inside the war are still evolving. She also considered two options for President Biden: the first is to do nothing and let the situation develop, and the second option is to push for Russian state restructuring and pressure, effectively supporting the insurgency. Rice, however, favored the first option as more viable.

Fuente: JP Morgan