Energy-driven volatility and mixed inflation signals shape global markets this week.
Week of March 9–13
Markets are navigating geopolitical tensions, energy pressures, and diverging economic signals. While inflation is moderating in some economies, growth prospects and monetary policy remain influenced by ongoing global uncertainty.
United States
Volatility increased amid Middle East tensions and rising oil prices. Inflation held at 2.4%, while the trade deficit narrowed following record exports. Jobless claims declined, suggesting the labor market remains resilient.
Europe
German inflation eased to 1.9%, though core inflation remains elevated. Industrial production and exports declined. The ECB warned of inflation risks linked to higher oil prices, signaling a potentially less accommodative policy stance.
Japan
GDP grew 1.3% in 2025, driven by stronger investment and consumption. Producer inflation moderated to 2.0%, pointing to some stabilization in industrial costs.
China
Inflation rose to 1.3% due to Lunar New Year spending. Exports surged 21.8% in the first two months of the year, generating a large trade surplus supported by manufacturing and technology sectors.
Argentina
Inflation increased to 33.2% in February. Despite the monthly rise, it remains well below the country’s historical average, reflecting progress in macroeconomic stabilization.
Brazil
Annual inflation slowed to 3.81%, although monthly inflation rose due to seasonal factors. Retail sales grew 2.8% year-over-year, indicating resilient consumer demand.
Mexico
Inflation rose to 4.02%, with core inflation remaining elevated, potentially delaying interest rate cuts. The USMCA review and energy price dynamics will be key themes. Authorities agreed to keep regular gasoline prices stable.
“If you aren’t willing to own a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it for 10 minutes.”
– Warren BuffettForma
KEY UPCOMING EVENTS
- In the United States, industrial production data will be released on 03/16.
- In the United States, the FEDs monetary policy decision will be released on 03/18.
Monitor
Returns as of 10 AM EST.
