Weekly Economic Outlook: Risks and Resilience 

Week of March 2–6

The week delivered a diverse economic outlook: weaker employment and consumer data in the U.S., signs of industrial recovery in Europe and Asia, and structural adjustments alongside moderate growth prospects in Latin America.

United States

Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, largely due to temporary factors. Consumer activity also softened, while rising cost pressures in manufacturing and services increased inflation risks.

Europe

In the U.K., construction fell to its lowest level in 14 months, although manufacturing expanded on stronger external demand. In Germany, both manufacturing and services grew in February, supported by orders and stimulus despite higher costs.

Japan

Unemployment rose to 2.7% in January, signaling a cooling labor market. In contrast, the manufacturing PMI reached its highest level in nearly four years, supported by exports, new orders, and stronger business optimism.

China

Economic activity accelerated in February, with both manufacturing and services PMIs exceeding expectations thanks to exports and job creation, although business optimism softened due to rising costs.

Argentina

The government announced it will prioritize a comprehensive tax reform in 2026 aimed at reducing the tax burden to support growth, alongside changes to the electoral and criminal frameworks.

Brazil

The economy grew 2.3% in 2025, its slowest pace since the pandemic. A weak year-end performance strengthens expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026.

Mexico

Remittances fell 1.4% year over year in January, the first decline for that month since 2015. Although investment rebounded at the end of 2025, the year closed in contraction. Analysts raised the 2026 growth forecast to 1.46%.

“If a business does well, the stock eventually follows.” – Warren Buffett

Key upcoming events

• In the United States, employment related data will be released on 03/10
• In the United States, February’s inflation data will be released on 03/11

Monitor