Weekly global macro outlook

February 9–13

The global economy continues to show moderate growth, with inflation easing in developed markets while emerging markets face more persistent pressures. Central banks remain focused on stability and monitoring macro risks.

United States
Employment surprised to the upside and inflation continues to moderate, giving the Fed room to keep rates steady. Corporate earnings remain strong, with solid profit growth and a high share of positive earnings surprises.

Europe
The eurozone posted moderate growth, led by Ireland and Spain. The U.K. continues to show weak growth but early signs of housing recovery, while policymakers focus on strengthening regional competitiveness.

Japan
Corporate bankruptcies reached a 13-year high due to rising labor costs and worker shortages, particularly impacting SMEs, amid weak real wage growth.

China
Low inflation and persistent deflationary pressure reinforce expectations for additional stimulus. Structural weakness in the real estate sector continues.

Argentina
Inflation accelerated again, driven by food and services, maintaining pressure on purchasing power and macro expectations.

Brazil
Inflation rose due to housing and transportation, while producer prices remain in a deflationary trend, reflecting easing upstream cost pressures.

Mexico
Core inflation remains elevated, led by services. Industrial activity shows moderate recovery, while the auto sector faces external trade pressures.