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Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence is redefining tasks, processes, and opportunities. AI will transform industries, but human talent will remain essential.

Artificial intelligence is beginning to transform the way we work by automating repetitive tasks and accelerating processes. However, history shows that major technological innovations tend to create new opportunities rather than eliminate jobs on a large scale. The adoption of these tools is likely to be gradual and uneven across industries, especially in sectors where judgment, creativity, and human experience remain essential to decision-making.

The impact of AI will likely be more evolutionary than disruptive to human work. Organizations that successfully integrate technology with processes and talent stand to benefit the most. Rather than eliminating jobs, AI may redefine skills, create new roles, and increase productivity, particularly in administrative functions, information analysis, and routine process automation.

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Source: Capital Group, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Hedge Funds 

An introduction to a strategy focused on flexibility and risk management. Understanding the role of hedge funds in a portfolio.

Hedge funds are investment vehicles designed to generate returns through a wide range of strategies, going beyond simply buying stocks or bonds. Unlike traditional investments, they can capitalize on opportunities in both rising and falling markets through relative value, macro, credit, and arbitrage strategies. Their primary objective is to provide diversification and reduce dependence on overall market direction. In an environment characterized by heightened volatility and economic uncertainty, hedge funds continue to be a relevant investment tool.

One of the defining characteristics of hedge funds is their flexibility to adapt to different market environments. However, not all strategies perform the same way, and results often depend heavily on manager skill. Today, investors are showing greater interest in strategies focused on risk management and capital preservation, while manager selection and diversification across strategies remain key factors in building more resilient portfolios.

Hedge Funds performance

Source: Preqin, S&P Capital IQ, MSCI, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve

Markets Between Monetary Caution and Slowing Growth 

Week of June 15–19

Central banks remain cautious as the global economy shows diverging signals

The week was marked by monetary policy decisions, persistent inflationary pressures, and mixed growth signals. While some central banks maintained a cautious stance, economic activity reflected contrasting trends across regions as investors continued to monitor interest rate and inflation developments.

The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, removed its easing bias, and projected a median policy rate of 3.8% for 2026. Consumer spending surprised to the upside, while housing and manufacturing showed weakness.

The Bank of England held rates at 3.75%, and Eurozone inflation remained at 3.2%. Germany showed improving economic sentiment, although the construction sector remains under pressure.

The BoJ raised its policy rate to 1.0%, the highest level since 1995. Inflation increased modestly, while exports rose 17%, driven by semiconductors and AI-related technology.

Consumer activity showed signs of weakness, with declines in retail sales and urban investment. However, industrial production and labor market indicators pointed to greater stability.

Consumer confidence rose 6.4% in June, supported by improved expectations and a recovery in sentiment toward durable goods and real estate.

Brazil’s central bank lowered its policy rate to 14.25% but warned that inflation remains a key risk. Retail sales declined, reflecting softer economic activity.

Mexico, the United States, and Canada will formally begin the USMCA review process on July 1, marking a key step for North American economic integration.

“If a business does well, the stock eventually follows.” — Warren Buffett

Key Upcoming Events

  • In the United States, employment related data will be released 06/23
  • In the United States, Q1 final growth data will be released 06/25

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Note: Returns as of June 18th at closing.

Fed: Fewer Cuts, More Caution 

The Fed holds rates steady but now signals possible hikes. Understanding the Federal Reserve’s new message.

What Changed in the Federal Reserve’s Latest Meeting

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at a range of 3.50%–3.75%, but its message to markets shifted significantly. For the first time since 2025, policymakers removed expectations for rate cuts in 2026 and instead signaled that a rate increase could be possible before year-end. The median projection from Fed officials now places the federal funds rate at 3.8% by the end of 2026, above the current range and indicative of a more restrictive stance. This shift reflects inflation that remains above the Fed’s 2% target and a labor market that continues to show resilience. The meeting also marked the beginning of a new era under Chairman Kevin Warsh, who has expressed a preference for simplifying Fed communications and reducing reliance on forward guidance.

Beyond the decision to keep rates unchanged, the most important development was the shift in tone. The Fed raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 3.6% for headline and 3.3% for core, while slightly lowering its economic growth projection to 2.2%. In addition, the median projection for the federal funds rate increased from 3.4% to 3.8% for year-end 2026, eliminating expectations for rate cuts and leaving the door open for a potential hike. With inflation still elevated and the labor market remaining resilient, policymakers continue to take a cautious approach toward monetary easing.

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Source: Federal Reserve

Markets Between Resilience and Inflationary Pressure 

Week of June 8–12

Persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions continue to shape markets

The week was marked by higher inflation across several economies, energy-related pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict, and mixed growth signals. Despite these challenges, some sectors continue to demonstrate resilience, while investors remain focused on monetary policy decisions.

Inflation rose to 4.2%, while PPI reached its highest level since 2022. However, home sales remained strong, and SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history.

The ECB raised rates to 2.25% and revised its inflation outlook higher. Germany saw inflation moderate, while the UK recorded its first economic contraction since August.

GDP exceeded expectations, supported by consumer spending and exports. However, producer prices rose 6.3%, reflecting the impact of higher energy costs.

Inflation remained stable, but producer prices reached their highest level since 2022. Energy and commodity costs continue to pressure industrial margins.

Inflation edged up to 33.6% year-over-year in May. Despite the increase, it remains well below levels seen in recent years.

Inflation reached 4.72%, exceeding expectations and marking its highest level since September, driven by food and energy prices.

Inflation returned to Banxico’s target range and producer prices moderated. However, automotive production declined, although exports continued to grow.

“You make most of your money in a bear market, you just don’t realize it at the time.” — Shelby Cullom Davis

Key Upcoming Events

  • In the United States, industrial production data will be released 06/15
  • In the United States, the FED monetary policy decision will be released on 06/17

Monitor:

Note: Returns as of 10 AM ET.

Venture Capital

Behind many of the companies transforming industries lies an earlier financing stage known as Venture Capital, an asset class that bets on innovation before it reaches public markets.

An Introduction to a High-Growth Asset Class

Venture Capital is an asset class focused on financing innovative companies in the early stages of growth before they become publicly traded. Its objective is to capture the potential of businesses with disruptive models in sectors such as technology, artificial intelligence, healthcare, and software. While it involves higher risks than many other investment strategies, it also provides access to some of the most significant value-creation opportunities.

Throughout 2026, investor interest in the sector has remained strong, driven by the continued expansion of artificial intelligence and technological innovation. The appeal of Venture Capital lies in its ability to identify transformative trends before they reach public markets. Today, capital continues to flow toward established firms, while competition for investor commitments remains intense.

However, returns are often concentrated in a relatively small number of highly successful investments, making manager selection especially important. In this environment, experience, access to opportunities, and investment discipline are key drivers of consistent long-term performance.

Regions of Interest for Venture Capital Investors

Source: Preqin

Colombia Election 2026: Markets Focus on the Presidential Runoff

Colombia’s presidential election is headed to a runoff after a closer-than-expected first-round result. The outcome opens a new chapter for financial markets, which are now weighing the economic implications of each candidate more closely.

A Highly Competitive First Round Sets the Stage for June 21

Colombia’s presidential election is headed to a runoff after a closer-than-expected first-round result. Abelardo de la Espriella secured 43.7% of the vote, compared to Iván Cepeda’s 40.9%, highlighting a deeply polarized electorate and two distinct economic and political visions. Markets responded positively to the initial outcome, while investors begin to assess more closely how each candidate’s proposals could affect economic growth, private investment, fiscal stability, and long-term development.

The June 21 runoff will be closely watched by financial markets. De la Espriella has advocated for policies centered on strengthening private investment, fiscal discipline, public security, and closer economic ties with the United States. Meanwhile, Cepeda represents greater continuity with the current administration’s agenda, emphasizing social programs and a more active role for the state in the economy.

Regardless of the outcome, investors will focus on the next government’s ability to preserve fiscal stability and foster confidence for long-term investment. The June 21 election could become one of the most important political events in Latin America during 2026.

Source: Reuters

Global Weekly Overview

Markets remain resilient despite ongoing inflationary and geopolitical challenges

Markets ended the week on a more constructive note, supported by moderating oil prices and strong corporate earnings. However, inflation remains above central bank targets, while geopolitical tensions continue to shape the global economic outlook.

United States

Markets advanced, supported by lower oil prices and S&P 500 earnings growth of 28.4%, the strongest pace since 2021. Inflation remains elevated, while consumer confidence continues to face pressure.

Europe

The ECB remains cautious amid still-elevated inflation. Although consumer confidence improved, economic sentiment remains weak and core inflation continues to run above target.

Japan

Retail sales and employment exceeded expectations. Consumption remains resilient, supported by government stimulus measures and a strong labor market.

China

Industrial profits increased 24.7%, driven by technology, electronics, and energy, reflecting a more favorable recovery in strategic sectors.


Argentina

Inflation expectations continue to moderate. Authorities anticipate monthly inflation below April levels, easing concerns over exchange-rate pressures.

Brazil

GDP exceeded expectations, supported by investment and consumer spending. However, producer prices continue to reflect pressures stemming from the global energy environment.

Mexico

Banxico lowered its 2026 growth forecast. Nevertheless, exports and foreign direct investment reached record levels, supporting economic activity.

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” — John Maynard Keynes

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

  • In the United States, manufacturing PMI will be released 06/01
  • In the United States, nonfarm payrolls will be released on 06/05

Monitor:

Note: Returns as of 10 AM ET.

Earnings

The S&P 500 posts its strongest earnings growth since 2021.

Corporate results continue to surprise positively

The Q1 2026 earnings season has delivered strong results for the S&P 500. With 94% of companies having reported, 84% exceeded earnings expectations and 81% beat revenue estimates. Annual earnings growth stands at 28.4%, the highest since 2021, while revenues are up 11.6%.

Consensus expectations point to earnings growth of approximately 22% for full-year 2026, supporting market optimism despite elevated valuations. The S&P 500 forward P/E stands at 21.1x, above historical averages.

Corporate performance continues to be one of the main supports for the U.S. market. Positive earnings revisions reflect companies’ operational resilience and adaptability. However, elevated valuations suggest that part of the optimism is already priced in, which could increase market sensitivity if expectations are not met.

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Source: FactSet

Global Weekly Overview 

A week marked by inflation pressures, rising rates, and mixed growth signals

Markets are facing a more restrictive environment, with persistent inflationary pressures and rising interest rates. While some economies show resilience, others reflect a slowdown, amid ongoing geopolitical risks.

United States

  • Fed Minutes point to potential rate hikes.
  • 30-year yields surpass 5%.
  • Earnings grow ~28%, but housing weakens.
  • Labor market remains resilient.

Europe

  • Eurozone inflation rises to 3.0% driven by energy.
  • UK inflation moderates, but unemployment increases.
  • Germany grows in line with expectations, with rising cost pressures.

Japan

  • GDP exceeds expectations, but energy costs threaten growth.
  • Inflation falls to 1.4%, remaining below the central bank’s target.

China

  • Retail sales and industrial production slow.
  • Weak domestic demand reflects softer consumption and manufacturing momentum.

Argentina

  • Economic activity rebounds to 5.5%, reversing the previous contraction and signaling recovery.

Brazil

  • Economic activity declines monthly but maintains 3.1% annual growth, reflecting partial resilience.

Mexico

  • Moody’s downgrades rating to Baa3.
  • Growth remains moderate, supported by services and easing inflation.

“Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.” — Warren Buffett

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS

  • In the United States, markets will remain closed for Memorial Day 05/25
  • In the United States, employment related data will be released 05/27

Monitor:

Note: Returns as of 10 AM ET.

Source: JP Morgan

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