Stablecoins: Innovation or silent threat to money?
Stablecoins pose a structural challenge to global monetary policy, potentially driving persistent inflation above central bank targets. Central banks don’t regulate or control stablecoin issuance, limiting their ability to adjust money supply across economic cycles. While currently backed 1:1 by fiat, a shift to fractional reserves could amplify inflation. 24/7 DeFi transactions accelerate monetary velocity, […]
Jobs, the Fed, and Growth: A Week of Mixed Signals
November 17–21 The U.S. labor market returned to the spotlight this week, while Europe maintained a stable tone and Japan showed signs of cooling. In Mexico, foreign direct investment continued to strengthen. Here are the key topics to watch. United States: • The economy added 119,000 jobs in September, above expectations, although the unemployment rate […]
Stablecoins: The Hidden Key Piece Driving Interest Rates and Global Liquidity
Stablecoins are no longer a theoretical exercise but have become part of the global financial market. With a capitalization exceeding $200 billion and high growth, their impact on the global economy is undeniable. Despite this, they remain excluded from monetary indicators like the M2 Money Supply. This omission is, in our opinion, a technical legacy […]
A divided Fed: what’s next for the markets?
The Federal Reserve has not reached a clear agreement on its next steps. A few weeks ago, the Fed cut its rate by 25 bps, but the real surprise came from the vote: one member called for a deeper cut, while another preferred none at all. Two opposing positions that reveal an important fact: the economy […]
Week of stable rates and mixed signals in manufacturing
November 3–7 Markets reflected a week of steady interest rates, weaker manufacturing data, and resilience in services. In the United States, the government shutdown remains unresolved, while year-end spending shows a more moderate tone compared with 2024. United States: Concerns over AI valuations drove market sentiment. Manufacturing activity declined, but the services sector rebounded. The government […]
Global Financial Outlook: Fed Cuts Rates and U.S. Extends Tariff Truce with China
Week: October 27-31 The week was marked by mixed signals in global markets following a series of key events. These included the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) second consecutive policy rate cut, the extension of the tariff truce between the United States and China, the stagnation of the German economy, and the improvement in China’s industrial profits. […]
Fed cuts again but remains cautious
The Federal Reserve delivered its second rate cut of the year, lowering the policy rate by 25 bps to a range of 3.75%–4%. It announced that it will halt its balance sheet reduction in December. The Fed acknowledged moderate growth but warned of rising labor market risks. The vote was 10–2, reflecting divided positions. Powell: another […]
Global Outlook: Mixed Signals and Market Caution
Week: October 13–17 Markets showed a mix of recovery signs and new challenges, driven by trade tensions, monetary policy decisions, and corporate earnings. United States Europe Asia Latin America “Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.” — Warren Buffett Key Upcoming Events: Monitor:
U.S. Government Shutdown: Political Uncertainty, Market Resilience
The U.S. government shutdown is once again testing market patience amid stalled negotiations and disagreements over public spending. Unlike previous shutdowns, this time there is talk of permanent layoffs instead of temporary furloughs, which could have a stronger impact on employment and domestic consumption. However, historical evidence suggests that such events tend to have a […]
Week of Uncertainty in the U.S. and Surprises in Asia
Week October 6–10 Markets opened October with mixed signals. Attention focused on the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, revised growth forecasts in China and Mexico, and stronger trade performance in Brazil. In Asia, Japan saw a historic political shift with the election of Sanae Takaichi as leader of the ruling party, while Europe faced renewed political […]
