AI
Solid fundamentals, but risks to watch. Earnings support the boom, though financing and data centers are key Valuations, earnings, and rates will define AI’s next chapter. The debate over whether AI is a bubble remains open. Capital Group notes that, unlike the dot-com era, earnings at the large AI-exposed companies have grown faster than their […]
Quarterly Earnings
The Earnings Season Kicks Off With High Expectations. Analysts are revising estimates upward, which is uncommon ahead of reporting S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow close to 30%. The third-quarter earnings season begins with elevated expectations. FactSet projects that S&P 500 earnings will grow 29.6% year over year and revenues 12.4%, which would mark […]
Brazil
Markets React to the First Round of the Election. Brazilian assets rise ahead of the October 25 runoff Flávio Bolsonaro surprises, and investors adjust their expectations. Brazil will decide its presidency in a runoff on October 25 between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, after a first round in which neither candidate secured […]
All-Time Highs
History shows that new highs do not necessarily signal an upcoming correction. Market Records Are Also Part of Long-Term Growth All-time highs have been common during bull markets. Seeing the market at all-time highs can create caution, but history offers a different perspective. Since 1957, the S&P 500 has closed at a new […]
AI
The U.S. bets on advanced models, while China focuses on industrial applications. Two Strategies Are Shaping the Future of AI The AI race is advancing through distinct strategies and global opportunities. The U.S. and China are advancing artificial intelligence through different approaches. U.S. companies are investing heavily in increasingly advanced models, while China […]
Rates
The Fed raised rates by 25 bps and signaled another increase could come this year. The Fed Takes a Firmer Stance on Inflation Persistent inflation pushes the Fed toward tighter monetary policy. The Fed raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since 2023. The unanimous decision […]
Rates
Rates are normalizing and reshaping opportunities for investors. A New Environment for Stocks and Bonds U.S. Treasury yields have risen amid a resilient economy, persistent inflation, and higher government debt. Although higher rates often generate volatility, they have historically not prevented stocks from performing well when accompanied by economic growth. At the same time, yields […]
Climate
Europe shows how extreme weather can affect growth, inflation, and energy. The Economic Cost of More Extreme Weather. Extreme weather is becoming an increasingly relevant economic and financial factor. High temperatures, droughts, and wildfires across Europe show how extreme weather can quickly spill over into the economy. Lower productivity, agricultural disruptions, constraints on power generation, […]
Reserves
The reserve’s decline raises concerns about its ability to respond to future energy emergencies. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell below 300 million barrels, its lowest level since it was filled in the 1980s. After releasing 172 million barrels in response to disruptions stemming from the conflict with Iran, inventories could decline to around 243 […]
Elections
Election years often bring volatility—but also opportunities. History shows that market volatility is often temporary. History Favors Discipline Over Uncertainty U.S. midterm elections have historically been associated with heightened uncertainty and increased market volatility. During these election years, the S&P 500 has typically posted more subdued returns as investors adopt a more cautious stance. […]
