September 

September has historically been the weakest month for the stock market. 

Seasonality Returns to Investors’ Radar

September has historically been the most challenging month for the stock market. Since the late 19th century, the Dow Jones has ended September higher only 43% of the time, compared with 60% for the rest of the year.

Its average return during the month has been -1.1%, versus +0.8% for all other months. While the pattern is statistically significant, history does not necessarily determine future performance. 

Seasonality can provide useful context, but it should not drive investment decisions on its own. Economic, corporate, and market factors typically carry greater weight. In fact, the Dow Jones gained in each of the past two Septembers, reminding us that historical patterns reflect probabilities, not certainties.

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Source: CFRA Research / S&P Dow Jones Indices