Weekly Global Outlook
Week of September 7–11 Persistent inflation, higher interest rates, and mixed signals for global growth. Inflation returned to the forefront of market attention. The Fed and ECB face greater pressure on interest rates, while Asia shows mixed signals and Latin America continues to see a gradual easing in price pressures. United States Annual inflation stood at 3.4% […]
Rates
Rates are normalizing and reshaping opportunities for investors. A New Environment for Stocks and Bonds U.S. Treasury yields have risen amid a resilient economy, persistent inflation, and higher government debt. Although higher rates often generate volatility, they have historically not prevented stocks from performing well when accompanied by economic growth. At the same time, yields […]
Weekly Global Outlook
Week of August 31 to September 4 Resilient employment, persistent inflation, and new signals on the path of interest rates. The global economy continued to show resilience, although price pressures remain. U.S. employment surprised to the upside, while Europe faces higher inflation and Asia shows more favorable economic activity. United States La economía […]
Climate
Europe shows how extreme weather can affect growth, inflation, and energy. The Economic Cost of More Extreme Weather. Extreme weather is becoming an increasingly relevant economic and financial factor. High temperatures, droughts, and wildfires across Europe show how extreme weather can quickly spill over into the economy. Lower productivity, agricultural disruptions, constraints on power generation, […]
Markets in times of elections
With the November U.S. presidential election approaching, and with former President Trump leading in the polls while President Biden endorses Vice President Kamala Harris, a key question arises: how do elections affect markets and portfolio returns? Do elections matter in the long run? To answer this, let’s look at some historical data. Surprisingly, markets have […]
Global Wealth Report 2024: Keys and Trends
The Global Wealth Report 2024, which analyzes the trends and dynamics impacting the global economy, is now available, and here are the highlights. Recovery since 2022 2023 marked a positive change in global wealth, recovering from a drop in 2022. Global wealth increased by 4.2% in USD terms, thanks to the EMEA (Europe, Middle East […]
Decent hiring in June, although decelerating
The U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in June. However, it was notable that the report revised down previous estimates of job creation in May and April. According to the consensus estimate, the economy was expected to add 190,000 jobs in June from the 272,000 originally reported in May, a figure that was adjusted to 218,000. […]
Expectations for the 2Q24 earnings season
Corporate earnings season for the second quarter of the year will begin in two weeks, with several large banks such as JP Morgan, Citi and Wells Fargo reporting on July 12. Mega-cap technology companies will begin reporting later in the month, most notably NVDA, which will report through August 23. In this context, the consensus […]
Catalysts for the second half of the year
As we approach the start of the second half of the year, we highlight the strong performance of the S&P 500, which has accumulated gains of approximately 15%. This performance primarily reflects optimism around artificial intelligence (AI), resilience in corporate earnings, and expectations of a potential Federal Reserve (FED) reference rate cut. Here are the […]
Global central banks adjust their strategy
By the end of 2023, global central banks were poised to initiate significant interest rate cuts. However, as the year progresses, persistent inflation and economic resilience led to a reassessment of these expectations. In this context, we share some of the perspectives they recently conveyed to the markets. Federal Reserve (Fed): • Revised projections: Fed […]
