Geopolitical Easing and Mixed Global Growth Signals
Rate cut in Mexico, potential stimulus in China, and caution from the US defined the week.
Week of June 23–27
Investors closely watching monetary policy, oil prices, and inflation. A week marked by rate adjustments, mixed economic signals, and easing geopolitical tensions
This week brought key developments in monetary policy, economic growth, and geopolitics. Here’s a country-by-country summary of the most relevant updates:
- United States: Former President Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, easing oil prices. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the likelihood of holding interest rates steady as tariff impacts are assessed. Q1 2025 GDP contracted by 0.5%, a deeper decline than expected, and consumer confidence fell again.
- Europe: The Eurozone continues to show lackluster growth, though Germany posted signs of a manufacturing rebound. In the UK, the composite PMI edged up slightly due to improved new orders.
- China: Citi raised its 2025 growth forecast to 5%. A new fiscal stimulus package worth approximately $70 billion is expected.
- Brazil: The Central Bank signaled a pause in its tightening cycle to assess the cumulative impact of previous rate hikes.
- Mexico: Banxico cut the benchmark rate to 8%. Inflation rose to 4.51% year-over-year in the first half of June. The government issued $6.8 billion in debt maturing in 2032 and 2038.
“Discipline is what separates an investor from a gambler.” – Peter Lynch
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH
- July 1 – US ISM Manufacturing Index release
- July 4 – US markets closed in observance of Independence Day
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