Markets in motion: Inflation, tariffs, and elections
Key data of the week: inflation, economic growth, trade policies, and political developments worldwide.
Key global events – Week of February 24 to 2
This week, markets focused on inflation, economic growth, and trade policies. Here are the key developments across regions:
- United States: Consumer confidence fell in February to its lowest level since 2021. Q4 2024 GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.3%, driven by strong personal consumption (4.2%). Trump announced—and later reversed—tariffs on Mexico and Canada, now set to take effect on March 4. PCE inflation, closely monitored by the Fed, stood at 2.6% year-over-year.
- Europe: In Germany, the center-right bloc won the elections, with Friedrich Merz set to become the new chancellor. Trump also proposed a 25% tariff on European Union products, including cars and semiconductors.
- Japan: Inflation in the services sector rose to 3.1% year-over-year in January, reinforcing expectations of further interest rate adjustments.
- China: Analysts expect housing prices to decline by 2.5% in 2024, with a slow recovery anticipated in the coming years.
- Brazil: February inflation increased to 4.96% year-over-year, the highest since October 2023. However, the country surprised with the creation of 137,300 formal jobs, significantly exceeding expectations.
- Mexico: Inflation in the first half of February reached 3.74%, accelerating from late January. Additionally, the government is considering potential tariffs on Chinese products in response to U.S. trade policy.
We’ll continue to monitor these developments and their impact on the markets.
Important events in the coming weeks:
- March 3: In the United States, the ISM Manufacturing Index will be released.
- March 7: In the United States, employment figures will be announced.
Monitor
