What’s Moving the Markets? Tariffs, Revisions, and Rate Cuts
Week of May 26–30
It was a short week for the markets, with tariffs remaining the main focus.
Weekly Update: Mixed Signals and Key Decisions on the Radar
Markets had a short trading week, but important developments still made waves. Here’s a regional breakdown of the most relevant news:
- United States: President Trump postponed the 50% tariffs on the European Union until July 9. Consumer confidence rebounded from multi-year lows, and Q1 2025 GDP showed a smaller-than-expected contraction of 0.2%. A trade court blocked global tariffs, but a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated them.
- Europe: Germany’s Chamber of Commerce projects a 0.3% economic contraction this year—marking three consecutive years of decline. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 bps in its upcoming policy announcement.
- China: Industrial profits rose 1.4% year over year in April, accelerating from the previous month.
- Brazil: May inflation fell to 5.4%, below market expectations. However, the average cost of domestic debt issuance climbed to 13.05%—the highest in over eight years.
- Mexico: The government confirmed that USMCA renegotiations will begin between September and October. The central bank lowered its 2025 growth forecast to 0.1% amid trade policy uncertainty.
The global landscape remains shaped by a mix of encouraging data and ongoing risks. Attention will now shift to upcoming monetary policy decisions and ongoing trade negotiations.
KEY UPCOMING EVENTS
- U.S. ISM Manufacturing – June 1
- U.S. Employment Report – June 6
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