Weekly Summary

Solid U.S. labor market, trade deals with Asia, and monetary pauses in Europe and China.

Week of July 21–25 

Global Outlook: Stability Amid Mixed Signals 
Recent data and key announcements from both developed and emerging markets reveal a landscape of resilience with a few areas of concern. Here are the most relevant highlights from the week: 

United States: 

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to extend trade negotiations with China and will meet with officials in Stockholm. A new trade agreement was reached with Japan, including 15% reciprocal tariffs and $550 billion USD in Japanese investments. Japan will open its market to U.S. agricultural and automotive products. 

• Jobless claims fell to their lowest level in three months, reflecting a strong labor market. 

Europe: 

• The European Central Bank held its benchmark rate at 2%, pausing after four consecutive cuts amid elevated uncertainty. 

• Negotiations with the U.S. are progressing toward a potential trade deal with a general 15% tariff, expected to be finalized before August 1. 

China: 

• The People’s Bank of China kept benchmark interest rates unchanged following slightly better-than-expected GDP data. 

Brazil: 

• Despite ongoing trade tensions with the U.S., GDP is projected to remain strong, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. However, if negotiations break down, inflation may rise, with projections of 5.2% for this year. 

Mexico: 

• The government plans a new bond issuance to support Pemex liquidity, estimated at $7 to $10 billion USD. Inflation declined to 3.55% in the first half of July, down from 4.32% in June. 

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” —Warren Buffett 

KEY EVENTS TABLE 

• U.S. Federal Reserve announcement – 07/30 
• U.S. Employment data release – 08/01 

Monitor

Week of July 14–18 

A key week for markets, marked by economic data, fiscal decisions, and mixed signals across the globe. 

Investors closely monitored inflation, consumption, and growth figures. Here are some of the most relevant developments: 

• U.S.: June retail sales beat expectations, showing resilient consumer demand. However, annual inflation rose to 2.7% due to higher tariffs. Q2 2025 earnings season began on a positive note. 

• Europe: UK inflation in June hit its highest level since January, reducing expectations of further rate cuts. In Germany, the government approved a fiscal stimulus package to support economic growth. 

• China: June exports exceeded expectations amid a fragile tariff truce with the U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 5.2% in Q2, reflecting continued economic resilience. 

• Brazil: The government projects gross debt will rise from 71.7% of GDP at the start of Lula’s administration to 82.3% by 2026, pointing to mounting fiscal pressure. 

• Mexico: The U.S. announced a 17% tariff on Mexican tomatoes. President Sheinbaum signaled interest in strengthening trade ties with Canada after speaking with Prime Minister Mark Carney. 

“ Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than lost in the corrections themselves”.— Peter Lynch 

Key Upcoming Events: 

• U.S.: Speech by Jerome Powell – 07/22 
• U.S.: Housing sector data release – 07/24 

Monitor 

Week of July 7–11 

Markets focus on trade decisions and mixed growth signals 

Amid a week marked by trade tensions and uneven economic data, here are the key highlights investors will be closely monitoring: 

• United States 
President Trump announced a 25% tariff on products from Japan and South Korea, effective August 1. For Canada, the tariff would be 35%. He also imposed 50% tariffs on copper imports and goods from Brazil. 
The Fed’s minutes revealed divided views on the timing and scale of potential rate cuts. 
Q2 2025 earnings season kicks off, with S&P 500 EPS growth expected at just 4%. 

• Europe 
Germany’s industrial production rose 1.2% month-over-month in May, driven by the automotive and energy sectors. However, exports fell 1.4% month-over-month, including a 7.7% drop in shipments to the U.S. 
The Bank of England highlighted the UK economy’s resilience despite ongoing geopolitical risks. 

• China 
Inflation rose 0.1% year-over-year in June, marking the first increase in five months. However, producer prices fell 3.6% annually, the lowest level since July 2023. 

• Brazil 
The government is planning a return to international debt markets by year-end, following two successful bond issuances this year. 
President Lula responded to U.S. tariffs by announcing 50% tariffs on American products. 

• Mexico 
Headline inflation eased to 4.32% in June, while core inflation ticked up slightly to 4.24%. 
Auto production hit a record high in June, posting 4.8% year-over-year growth. 

“History offers a crucial insight about market crises: they are inevitable, painful, and ultimately surmountable.” — Shelby M.C. Davis 

Important events in the next week 

• U.S. inflation data – 07/15 
• U.S. industrial production – 07/16 

Monitor 

Week of June 30 – July 3 

A short week marked by new trade agreements and mixed economic data across major markets. 

Robust employment, tax reform, and mixed global signals 
Here are the most relevant developments from the international scene this week: 

• United States 

• Nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside, with 147,000 new jobs added in June, beating expectations of 110,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%.
• The Senate approved President Trump’s fiscal plan, which includes new deductions and extends the 2017 tax cuts.  
• A new trade agreement was announced with Vietnam. 

• Europe 

• Eurozone inflation rose slightly to 2% year-over-year, in line with expectations. 
• The European Union signaled willingness to accept a general 10% tariff if the U.S. reduces duties in key sectors such as alcohol, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. 

• China 

• Manufacturing activity contracted for a third consecutive month, though at a slower pace. 
• The services sector grew at its slowest rate in nine months, amid weakening demand and fewer new orders. 

• Brazil 

• The Central Bank indicated that recent easing in inflation may allow for a reassessment of its monetary stance. The Selic rate remains at 15%, its highest level since 2006. 

• Mexico 

• Banxico highlighted the strength of the financial system following the intervention of three institutions under investigation for alleged money laundering. 
• Remittances totaled US$5.36 billion in May, a 4.6% year-over-year decline. 

“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” — Benjamin Franklin 

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

• United States: FOMC minutes release – 07/12 
• China: June inflation report – 07/09 

Monitor 

Rate cut in Mexico, potential stimulus in China, and caution from the US defined the week. 

Week of June 23–27 

Investors closely watching monetary policy, oil prices, and inflation. A week marked by rate adjustments, mixed economic signals, and easing geopolitical tensions 

This week brought key developments in monetary policy, economic growth, and geopolitics. Here’s a country-by-country summary of the most relevant updates: 

• United States: Former President Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, easing oil prices. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the likelihood of holding interest rates steady as tariff impacts are assessed. Q1 2025 GDP contracted by 0.5%, a deeper decline than expected, and consumer confidence fell again.  
  
• Europe: The Eurozone continues to show lackluster growth, though Germany posted signs of a manufacturing rebound. In the UK, the composite PMI edged up slightly due to improved new orders. 
  
• China: Citi raised its 2025 growth forecast to 5%. A new fiscal stimulus package worth approximately $70 billion is expected.
  
• Brazil: The Central Bank signaled a pause in its tightening cycle to assess the cumulative impact of previous rate hikes. 
  
• Mexico: Banxico cut the benchmark rate to 8%. Inflation rose to 4.51% year-over-year in the first half of June. The government issued $6.8 billion in debt maturing in 2032 and 2038. 

“Discipline is what separates an investor from a gambler.” – Peter Lynch 

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH 

• July 1 – US ISM Manufacturing Index release  
• July 4 – US markets closed in observance of Independence Day 

Monitor 

Economic Radar 

Week of June 16–20 

A week of contrasts: mixed signals across growth, interest rates, and geopolitics 

This week was shaped by key central bank decisions, contrasting economic indicators, and renewed geopolitical tensions. Below is a summary of the most relevant developments by region: 

• United States: The Fed held its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50% and revised its projections: GDP growth was lowered to 1.4% (from 1.7%) and core inflation was raised to 3.1% (from 2.8%). While two rate cuts remain on the table for 2025, seven members now forecast no changes. In parallel, retail sales fell 0.9% month-over-month, and Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher following evacuation orders issued by Trump in Tehran. 
  
• Europe: The ECB maintained a flexible stance without committing to further cuts. In the UK, annual inflation stood at 3.4%, in line with expectations. The Bank of England kept its rate at 4.25%, signaling potential cuts if conditions allow. 
  
• China: The PBOC left benchmark rates unchanged. Retail sales surprised to the upside (+6.4% YoY), and industrial production grew 5.8% YoY. 
  
• Brazil: The Central Bank raised the Selic rate to 15%, marking the seventh consecutive hike. Authorities anticipate elevated financing costs for longer to contain inflation, projected at 4.9% for 2025. 
  
• Mexico: Investment fell 4% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025, marking the second consecutive decline. The IMEF projects the economy won’t regain momentum until 2027, amid uncertainty surrounding the judicial reform and USMCA renegotiation. 

In a highly uncertain environment, discipline and analysis remain the foundation of a sound investment strategy. 

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

• In the United States, Powell will present his semiannual monetary policy report 06/24 
• In the United States, GDP data will be released 06/26 

Monitor 

Week of June 9–13 

Mixed inflation data, downward growth revisions, and easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. set the tone for the week’s global economic narrative. 
Here’s a brief summary of the most relevant developments across major economies in recent days: 

• United States: May inflation rose just 0.1%, staying below expectations. The Fed is not expected to cut rates before September. The World Bank lowered 2025 GDP growth to 1.4%. Gold and oil rose on geopolitical tensions. 

• Europe: Germany raised its 2025 growth forecast to 0.3%. An ECB policymaker said interest rates are well positioned, signaling a prolonged pause as inflation continues to ease. 

• China: Exports grew 4.8% year-over-year, but those to the U.S. fell 34.5%. Annual inflation declined, and producer prices also retreated.  

• Brazil: Inflation reached 0.26% in May, below the 0.33% forecast. The annual rate fell to 5.32%, reinforcing expectations of a pause in the Central Bank’s rate hike cycle. 

• Mexico: Inflation climbed to 4.42% year-over-year in the second half of May, its highest level in five months. The World Bank cut its 2025 growth forecast from 1.5% to 0.2%. 

Investing wisely isn’t about timing the market, but about staying informed, diversified, and avoiding impulsive decisions. 

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

• In the United States, the Fed policy announcement will take place 06/18 
• In the United States, Juneteenth will be observed (market closed) 06/19 

Monitor 

Week of June 2–6 

Volatile week for the markets, as tariffs and trade tensions once again captured investors’ attention. 

The economic environment continues to show mixed signals. While some indicators are improving, uncertainty remains around productive activity, inflation, and trade policies. Here are the most relevant data points from the week, by country: 

• United States: The OECD cut its growth forecast to 1.6% for this year, impacted by tariffs. Job openings rose in April, while the services sector contracted for the first time in 12 months. 

• Europe: Eurozone inflation dropped to 1.9%, below expectations. The ECB lowered its policy rate to 2%, and the services sector weakened, weighing on business activity. 

• China: Manufacturing posted its sharpest contraction since 2022, hit by weaker external demand linked to tariffs. 

• Brazil: The Central Bank reaffirmed its restrictive stance, while signaling flexibility to adjust monetary policy in light of new data. 

• Mexico: Remittances fell 12.1% year-over-year in April. Still, the OECD raised its growth forecast, citing potential relief in trade tensions. 

“Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars.” — Bernard Baruch 

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

• In China, export and inflation data will be released 06/08–09 
• In the United States, May inflation data will be published 06/11 

Monitor 

Week of May 26–30 

It was a short week for the markets, with tariffs remaining the main focus.

Weekly Update: Mixed Signals and Key Decisions on the Radar 
Markets had a short trading week, but important developments still made waves. Here’s a regional breakdown of the most relevant news: 

• United States: President Trump postponed the 50% tariffs on the European Union until July 9. Consumer confidence rebounded from multi-year lows, and Q1 2025 GDP showed a smaller-than-expected contraction of 0.2%. A trade court blocked global tariffs, but a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated them. 

• Europe: Germany’s Chamber of Commerce projects a 0.3% economic contraction this year—marking three consecutive years of decline. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 bps in its upcoming policy announcement. 

• China: Industrial profits rose 1.4% year over year in April, accelerating from the previous month. 

• Brazil: May inflation fell to 5.4%, below market expectations. However, the average cost of domestic debt issuance climbed to 13.05%—the highest in over eight years. 

• Mexico: The government confirmed that USMCA renegotiations will begin between September and October. The central bank lowered its 2025 growth forecast to 0.1% amid trade policy uncertainty. 

The global landscape remains shaped by a mix of encouraging data and ongoing risks. Attention will now shift to upcoming monetary policy decisions and ongoing trade negotiations.

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing – June 1 
• U.S. Employment Report – June 6 

Monitor 

Week of May 19–23 

This week, markets were focused on the evolving fiscal debate and long-term interest rates. 

KEY HIGHLIGHTS BY REGION 

This week, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from ‘Aaa’ to ‘Aa1’, citing the growing fiscal deficit and high refinancing costs. Meanwhile, the fiscal debate is intensifying, and the Fed remains cautious. Here are the main developments by region: 

• United States: Moody’s cut the U.S. credit rating. The House passed Trump’s fiscal plan, which includes tax cuts and increased defense spending. The Fed signaled no rate cuts before September. Yields on 10- and 30-year Treasuries rose. Toward the end of the week, President Trump proposed a 50% tariff on the European Union and a 25% tariff on Apple. 

• Europe: U.K. inflation came in above expectations, reaching 3.5%. In Germany, the Ifo Business Climate Index rose more than forecast, signaling greater corporate confidence. 

• China: Retail sales rose 5.1% year-over-year in April, missing expectations. The central bank cut its key lending rates for the first time since October. 

• Brazil: Economic activity grew 0.8% in March, twice the expected pace. On a yearly basis, growth reached 3.49%. 

• Mexico: Inflation in the first half of May accelerated to 4.22%. First-quarter GDP remained unchanged from the initial estimate. Additionally, a 15% average tariff is anticipated on vehicles exported to the U.S. 

Fiscal and trade uncertainty continues to shape the outlook. While many recent developments were partially priced in, upcoming shifts in interest rates, inflation, and growth will remain key drivers for markets in the months ahead. 

KEY DATES TO WATCH 

• May 26 (U.S.): Markets closed for Memorial Day 
• May 28 (U.S.): Release of the Fed’s latest meeting minutes 

Monitor