Mixed trends in inflation and growth
Week of June 9–13
Mixed inflation data, downward growth revisions, and easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. set the tone for the week’s global economic narrative.
Here’s a brief summary of the most relevant developments across major economies in recent days:
- United States: May inflation rose just 0.1%, staying below expectations. The Fed is not expected to cut rates before September. The World Bank lowered 2025 GDP growth to 1.4%. Gold and oil rose on geopolitical tensions.
- Europe: Germany raised its 2025 growth forecast to 0.3%. An ECB policymaker said interest rates are well positioned, signaling a prolonged pause as inflation continues to ease.
- China: Exports grew 4.8% year-over-year, but those to the U.S. fell 34.5%. Annual inflation declined, and producer prices also retreated.
- Brazil: Inflation reached 0.26% in May, below the 0.33% forecast. The annual rate fell to 5.32%, reinforcing expectations of a pause in the Central Bank’s rate hike cycle.
- Mexico: Inflation climbed to 4.42% year-over-year in the second half of May, its highest level in five months. The World Bank cut its 2025 growth forecast from 1.5% to 0.2%.
Investing wisely isn’t about timing the market, but about staying informed, diversified, and avoiding impulsive decisions.
KEY UPCOMING EVENTS
- In the United States, the Fed policy announcement will take place 06/18
- In the United States, Juneteenth will be observed (market closed) 06/19
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