Weekly Summary

Week of June 2–6 

Volatile week for the markets, as tariffs and trade tensions once again captured investors’ attention. 

The economic environment continues to show mixed signals. While some indicators are improving, uncertainty remains around productive activity, inflation, and trade policies. Here are the most relevant data points from the week, by country: 

• United States: The OECD cut its growth forecast to 1.6% for this year, impacted by tariffs. Job openings rose in April, while the services sector contracted for the first time in 12 months. 

• Europe: Eurozone inflation dropped to 1.9%, below expectations. The ECB lowered its policy rate to 2%, and the services sector weakened, weighing on business activity. 

• China: Manufacturing posted its sharpest contraction since 2022, hit by weaker external demand linked to tariffs. 

• Brazil: The Central Bank reaffirmed its restrictive stance, while signaling flexibility to adjust monetary policy in light of new data. 

• Mexico: Remittances fell 12.1% year-over-year in April. Still, the OECD raised its growth forecast, citing potential relief in trade tensions. 

“Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars.” — Bernard Baruch 

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

• In China, export and inflation data will be released 06/08–09 
• In the United States, May inflation data will be published 06/11 

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Week of May 26–30 

It was a short week for the markets, with tariffs remaining the main focus.

Weekly Update: Mixed Signals and Key Decisions on the Radar 
Markets had a short trading week, but important developments still made waves. Here’s a regional breakdown of the most relevant news: 

• United States: President Trump postponed the 50% tariffs on the European Union until July 9. Consumer confidence rebounded from multi-year lows, and Q1 2025 GDP showed a smaller-than-expected contraction of 0.2%. A trade court blocked global tariffs, but a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated them. 

• Europe: Germany’s Chamber of Commerce projects a 0.3% economic contraction this year—marking three consecutive years of decline. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 bps in its upcoming policy announcement. 

• China: Industrial profits rose 1.4% year over year in April, accelerating from the previous month. 

• Brazil: May inflation fell to 5.4%, below market expectations. However, the average cost of domestic debt issuance climbed to 13.05%—the highest in over eight years. 

• Mexico: The government confirmed that USMCA renegotiations will begin between September and October. The central bank lowered its 2025 growth forecast to 0.1% amid trade policy uncertainty. 

The global landscape remains shaped by a mix of encouraging data and ongoing risks. Attention will now shift to upcoming monetary policy decisions and ongoing trade negotiations.

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing – June 1 
• U.S. Employment Report – June 6 

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Week of May 19–23 

This week, markets were focused on the evolving fiscal debate and long-term interest rates. 

KEY HIGHLIGHTS BY REGION 

This week, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from ‘Aaa’ to ‘Aa1’, citing the growing fiscal deficit and high refinancing costs. Meanwhile, the fiscal debate is intensifying, and the Fed remains cautious. Here are the main developments by region: 

• United States: Moody’s cut the U.S. credit rating. The House passed Trump’s fiscal plan, which includes tax cuts and increased defense spending. The Fed signaled no rate cuts before September. Yields on 10- and 30-year Treasuries rose. Toward the end of the week, President Trump proposed a 50% tariff on the European Union and a 25% tariff on Apple. 

• Europe: U.K. inflation came in above expectations, reaching 3.5%. In Germany, the Ifo Business Climate Index rose more than forecast, signaling greater corporate confidence. 

• China: Retail sales rose 5.1% year-over-year in April, missing expectations. The central bank cut its key lending rates for the first time since October. 

• Brazil: Economic activity grew 0.8% in March, twice the expected pace. On a yearly basis, growth reached 3.49%. 

• Mexico: Inflation in the first half of May accelerated to 4.22%. First-quarter GDP remained unchanged from the initial estimate. Additionally, a 15% average tariff is anticipated on vehicles exported to the U.S. 

Fiscal and trade uncertainty continues to shape the outlook. While many recent developments were partially priced in, upcoming shifts in interest rates, inflation, and growth will remain key drivers for markets in the months ahead. 

KEY DATES TO WATCH 

• May 26 (U.S.): Markets closed for Memorial Day 
• May 28 (U.S.): Release of the Fed’s latest meeting minutes 

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Week of May 12–16 

This week, global economic activity delivered mixed signals. 

INTERNATIONAL OVERVIEW: MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE MARKETS 

Recent economic data reveal meaningful shifts in inflation, interest rates, and global activity. Here are the most relevant highlights by country: 

• United States: A temporary tariff reduction was agreed upon with China. Inflation rose 0.2% in April, with an annual rate of 2.3%, coming in below expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that interest rates may need to remain higher for longer due to supply chain pressures. 

• Europe: Germany reported annual inflation of 2.2% in April, as expected. The U.K. economy surprised with 0.7% GDP growth in Q1, driven by strong business investment. 

• China: Inflation turned negative again (-0.1% year-over-year), while producer prices dropped 2.7%. Analysts highlight the need for stronger fiscal stimulus to boost domestic consumption. 

• Brazil: Around 30 agreements were signed with China across strategic sectors such as infrastructure, mining, artificial intelligence, and environmental initiatives. 

• Mexico: The Bank of Mexico cut its benchmark rate to 8.5% for the third straight time and signaled the possibility of further easing. Consumer confidence continued to weaken. 

A long-term investor stays focused on strategies aligned with their risk tolerance to meet financial goals over time. 

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

• China: Retail sales and industrial production data – May 19 
• United States: Fed officials scheduled to speak – May 19–20 

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Week of May 5–9 

Here’s a summary of the most relevant events that shaped the markets this week: 

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.5%, as expected. However, the message was clear: uncertainty is rising. Jerome Powell warned that tariffs could lead to higher long-term inflation and slower economic growth. Meanwhile, President Trump announced a new trade deal with the U.K., though it does not currently include removing tariffs on China. 

Key international developments: 

• Europe: Germany reported strong trade and industrial data for March. The Bank of England cut its interest rate to 4.25%.
   
• China: New monetary stimulus measures were introduced, including a rate cut and a reduction in the bank reserve requirement ratio. 
  
• Brazil: The Central Bank raised its benchmark rate to 14.75%—the highest level in two decades—and signaled that further hikes are possible. 
  
• Mexico: April inflation came in at 3.93% year-over-year. Markets continue to expect another rate cut from Banxico, while growth forecasts are being revised downward. 

“Uncertainty actually is the friend of the buyer of long-term values” — Warren Buffett 

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

• U.S. Inflation Report – May 13 
• U.S. Retail Sales – May 15 

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U.S. employment, inflation in Europe, and export rebounds in Mexico and China. 

Week of April 28 to May 2 

Market Highlights 
Here’s a summary of the most relevant developments that influenced global markets this week: 

• United States 
177,000 jobs were created in April, beating the 138,000 forecast. However, consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in five years, and Q1 2025 GDP contracted by 0.3%. 
Job openings (JOLTS) also dropped to a six-month low. 

• Europe 
Eurozone GDP grew 0.4% in the first quarter, exceeding projections. However, consumer inflation expectations rose to 2.9% over the next 12 months. 

• China 
The government reaffirmed its commitment to boosting growth through proactive fiscal measures. However, manufacturing activity declined again, reaching a two-year low. 

• Brazil 
The Central Bank emphasized a comprehensive approach amid early signs of economic cooling and inflation levels still above target. There’s growing optimism around the ratification of the Mercosur-EU agreement. 

• Mexico 
Preliminary Q1 2025 GDP grew 0.2%, avoiding a technical recession. Exports rose 9.6% year-over-year, and the trade surplus reached US$3.443 billion. Still, inflation edged up slightly to 3.96%. 

In investing, adaptability in times of change isn’t just an advantage—it’s essential for uncovering new opportunities. 

Key Upcoming Events 

• In the U.S., the ISM Services Index will be released – 05/05 
• In the U.S., the Fed will announce monetary policy – 05/07 

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Strong U.S. sales and growth in China stand in contrast with ongoing trade tensions. 

Week of April 21–25 

Market Highlights 
Here’s a summary of the most relevant developments that influenced global markets this week: 

United States 

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that trade tensions with China could ease in the coming months, though a unilateral removal of tariffs is not under consideration. 
• The IMF revised its U.S. growth forecast downward to 1.8% for 2025, from a previous estimate of 2.7%. 
• Gold prices surpassed $3,500 per ounce for the first time in history. 

Europe 

• Economic activity in both the eurozone and the U.K. stagnated, impacted by trade-related uncertainty. 
• Nevertheless, Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index posted an unexpected increase in April, reflecting improved sentiment. 

China 

• For the sixth consecutive month, interest rates were left unchanged: the one-year LPR remains at 3.1%, and the five-year LPR at 3.6%. 
• The Chinese government ruled out resuming trade negotiations with the U.S. while tariffs remain in place. 

Brazil 

• The Finance Minister dismissed the likelihood of a recession, expressing confidence that global tariffs will not be sustained and emphasizing that inflation is approaching the Central Bank’s target. 

Mexico 

• Citi revised its 2025 growth forecast downward to 0.2% (from 0.3%) and now anticipates the benchmark interest rate to end the year at 7.75%. 
• Inflation in the first half of April rose to 3.96%, driven primarily by price increases in fruits and vegetables. 

In investing, adaptability in times of change isn’t just an advantage—it’s essential for uncovering new opportunities. 

 Key Upcoming Events 

• May 1: ISM Manufacturing Index (U.S.) 
• May 2: Employment indicators (U.S.) 

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Week of April 14–17 

Here’s a quick look at the most relevant developments that shaped markets during this shortened week. 

United States 

• President Trump is considering temporary exemptions from the 25% tariffs on vehicles and auto parts. 
• Electronic devices like smartphones and computers have been temporarily exempted. 
• Retail sales rose 1.4% in March, beating expectations. 
• Fed Governor Waller noted that the inflationary impact of tariffs would likely be “transitory.” 

Europe 

• U.K. inflation fell to 2.6% in March, better than expected. 
• EU leaders believe most tariffs imposed on the bloc will remain in place. 
• The U.S. may temporarily ease some tariffs, but full removal isn’t expected. 

China 

• Exports rose 12.4% year-over-year in March, surpassing the 4.4% forecast. 
• First-quarter GDP grew 5.4% annually, despite ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. 

Brazil 

• Analysts expect economic growth to slow in the second half of the year, weighed down by high domestic interest rates and global trade friction. 

Mexico 

• The U.S. will impose a 20.91% tariff on Mexican tomato imports starting in July. 
• Finance executives warn that Mexico could lose its investment-grade rating by 2026 if trade relations with the U.S. deteriorate and fiscal deficits persist. 

Staying informed is key to understanding the ever-changing environment in which investments operate.

IMPORTANT EVENTS – CALENDAR 

• April 23: The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book economic report will be released. 
• April 22–24: Regional manufacturing reports will be published in the U.S. 

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U.S. Imposes Global Tariffs 

Week of March 31 – April 4 

Here are the key events that influenced market sentiment this week: 

United States 

• The U.S. announced a new 10% blanket tariff on imports, with reciprocal measures for over 150 countries starting April 9. 
• Nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations in March, adding +228,000 jobs, though unemployment rose to 4.2%. 
• Manufacturing activity contracted for the first time this year, according to the ISM index. 

Europe 

• Inflation fell to 2.2% year-over-year, in line with expectations. 
• Markets anticipate a 25-bps rate cut at the ECB’s April 17 meeting. 
• The European Commission responded to U.S. tariffs and is preparing countermeasures. 

China 

• The manufacturing PMI reached a 12-month high, driven by a surge in new orders. 
• The country will face a 54% tariff on its exports to the U.S. and has retaliated with a 34% tariff on U.S. goods. 

Brazil 

• Industrial production unexpectedly declined by 0.1% month-over-month in February, dragged down by durable goods manufacturing. 

Mexico 

• February remittances totaled $4.459 billion, down 1% year-over-year. 
• Mexico and Canada were excluded from the U.S. tariff announcement. 
• The government introduced an 18-point plan to boost domestic consumption, investment, and social programs. 

In times of volatility, it’s essential not to be swayed by short-term noise—discipline and patience create long-term wealth. 

Important events:

• April 9: The U.S. Federal Reserve minutes will be released. 
• April 10: March inflation data will be published in the U.S. 

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Week of March 24 to 28 

Global markets in motion: Uncertainty in the U.S., recovery in Europe, challenges in China, and monetary adjustments in Mexico. 

• United States 
  Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to grow 7.7% year-over-year in Q1 2025, the slowest pace since Q3 2023. Trump announced a 25% tariff on all cars manufactured outside the country. Consumer confidence fell amid inflation fears. Q4 2024 GDP was revised upward, showing an annualized growth of 2.4%, driven by consumption. 

• Europe 
  Economic activity advanced at its fastest pace in seven months, led by the manufacturing sector. In the United Kingdom, inflation slowed to 2.8% year-over-year, better than expected. 

• China 
  In response to rising tariffs, Premier Li Qiang called for opening global markets. Industrial profits fell 0.3% year-over-year as of February. 

• Brazil 
  The government considers that conditions may arise to begin interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. 

• Mexico 
  Inflation in the first half of March moderated to 3.67% year-over-year. In line with expectations, the Bank of Mexico cut the benchmark rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 9%. 

Staying informed will help you better understand the current macroeconomic context. 

Important events in the coming weeks 

• April 01: In the United States, the ISM Manufacturing Index will be released. 
• April 04: In the United States, employment figures will be published. 

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