Weekly Summary

Week of August 11–15 

This week, global markets reacted to a series of mixed developments. In the U.S., President Trump extended by 90 days the implementation of new tariffs on China, keeping the current 30% and 10% levels unchanged. July’s inflation came in slightly below expectations at 2.7%, driven by housing costs. 

In Europe, German investor confidence dropped sharply amid disappointment over EU-U.S. trade talks and weak economic performance. Analysts expect the ECB to hold rates steady at 2%, marking the end of its current easing cycle. 

In Asia, Japan’s producer inflation decelerated for a fourth month, while China posted soft data in retail sales and industrial production. In Latin America, Brazil announced a $5 billion support plan for local businesses, while Mexico highlighted a record trade deficit with China and a historic drop in poverty levels. 

“Never invest in any idea you can’t illustrate with a crayon.” — Peter Lynch 

KEY EVENTS NEXT WEEK 

• U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits → August 19 
• FOMC Meeting Minutes → August 20 

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Week of August 4–8 

The month kicks off with trade tensions and monetary policy adjustments. 

The first week of August brings key monetary policy decisions, new tariffs, and mixed signals from major economies. Here’s a country-by-country recap: 

• United States: The ISM services index stalled in July, showing higher inflation and weaker employment. President Trump announced new tariffs: an additional 25% on India for purchasing Russian oil, and 100% on semiconductor imports, with exemptions for companies investing in domestic manufacturing. 

• Europe: The Bank of England cut its benchmark rate from 4.25% to 4%, though 4 of its 9 committee members voted to keep rates unchanged. The PMI showed a slight expansion in the business environment in July. 

• China: The services sector grew at its fastest pace in 14 months, driven by domestic demand. Exports jumped 7.2% year-over-year in July, beating expectations. 

• Brazil: The finance minister will meet with his U.S. counterpart as the country seeks alternatives to the recently imposed 50% U.S. tariff. 

• Mexico: Banxico cut the policy rate by 25 bps to 7.75%, slowing the pace compared with previous 50 bps cuts. Annual inflation eased to 3.51% in July. The government unveiled Pemex’s 2025–2035 Strategic Plan to make the oil company more efficient and profitable. 

“The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.”
— Phillip Fisher 

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

• U.S. inflation data release – 08/12 
• Speeches by various Fed members – 08/13 

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Week of July 28 to August 1 

Tariff truces, steady rates, and solid growth in the U.S. and Mexico 

Global markets start the week with mixed but constructive signals. Below is a brief country-by-country summary: 

• United States: The Fed kept rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time. Q2 GDP grew 3%, driven by consumer spending. An agreement was reached with the EU to cap tariffs at 15%, and the trade truce with China remains in place following new negotiations. Nonfarm payrolls came in below expectations, with 73,000 jobs created in June. 

• Europe: Eurozone GDP grew 0.1%, with strong performance in Spain and France. Germany and Italy remain laggards. Inflation in Germany fell to 1.8%, below the ECB’s target. 

• China: Industrial profits fell 4.3% in June, and manufacturing contracted for the fourth straight month. 

• Brazil: In response to new U.S. tariffs, the government is preparing support measures for affected sectors. The central bank kept its benchmark rate at 15%, signaling the end of its tightening cycle. 

• Mexico: Q2 GDP grew 0.7%, beating forecasts. The tariff pause with the U.S. was extended, keeping current rates in place. 

“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that matters, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.” — George Soros 

Important events in the next week 

• In the United States, the ISM Services Index will be released on 08/05 
• In China, inflation data will be published on 08/11 

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Solid U.S. labor market, trade deals with Asia, and monetary pauses in Europe and China.

Week of July 21–25 

Global Outlook: Stability Amid Mixed Signals 
Recent data and key announcements from both developed and emerging markets reveal a landscape of resilience with a few areas of concern. Here are the most relevant highlights from the week: 

United States: 

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to extend trade negotiations with China and will meet with officials in Stockholm. A new trade agreement was reached with Japan, including 15% reciprocal tariffs and $550 billion USD in Japanese investments. Japan will open its market to U.S. agricultural and automotive products. 

• Jobless claims fell to their lowest level in three months, reflecting a strong labor market. 

Europe: 

• The European Central Bank held its benchmark rate at 2%, pausing after four consecutive cuts amid elevated uncertainty. 

• Negotiations with the U.S. are progressing toward a potential trade deal with a general 15% tariff, expected to be finalized before August 1. 

China: 

• The People’s Bank of China kept benchmark interest rates unchanged following slightly better-than-expected GDP data. 

Brazil: 

• Despite ongoing trade tensions with the U.S., GDP is projected to remain strong, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. However, if negotiations break down, inflation may rise, with projections of 5.2% for this year. 

Mexico: 

• The government plans a new bond issuance to support Pemex liquidity, estimated at $7 to $10 billion USD. Inflation declined to 3.55% in the first half of July, down from 4.32% in June. 

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” —Warren Buffett 

KEY EVENTS TABLE 

• U.S. Federal Reserve announcement – 07/30 
• U.S. Employment data release – 08/01 

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Week of July 14–18 

A key week for markets, marked by economic data, fiscal decisions, and mixed signals across the globe. 

Investors closely monitored inflation, consumption, and growth figures. Here are some of the most relevant developments: 

• U.S.: June retail sales beat expectations, showing resilient consumer demand. However, annual inflation rose to 2.7% due to higher tariffs. Q2 2025 earnings season began on a positive note. 

• Europe: UK inflation in June hit its highest level since January, reducing expectations of further rate cuts. In Germany, the government approved a fiscal stimulus package to support economic growth. 

• China: June exports exceeded expectations amid a fragile tariff truce with the U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 5.2% in Q2, reflecting continued economic resilience. 

• Brazil: The government projects gross debt will rise from 71.7% of GDP at the start of Lula’s administration to 82.3% by 2026, pointing to mounting fiscal pressure. 

• Mexico: The U.S. announced a 17% tariff on Mexican tomatoes. President Sheinbaum signaled interest in strengthening trade ties with Canada after speaking with Prime Minister Mark Carney. 

“ Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections, than lost in the corrections themselves”.— Peter Lynch 

Key Upcoming Events: 

• U.S.: Speech by Jerome Powell – 07/22 
• U.S.: Housing sector data release – 07/24 

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Week of July 7–11 

Markets focus on trade decisions and mixed growth signals 

Amid a week marked by trade tensions and uneven economic data, here are the key highlights investors will be closely monitoring: 

• United States 
President Trump announced a 25% tariff on products from Japan and South Korea, effective August 1. For Canada, the tariff would be 35%. He also imposed 50% tariffs on copper imports and goods from Brazil. 
The Fed’s minutes revealed divided views on the timing and scale of potential rate cuts. 
Q2 2025 earnings season kicks off, with S&P 500 EPS growth expected at just 4%. 

• Europe 
Germany’s industrial production rose 1.2% month-over-month in May, driven by the automotive and energy sectors. However, exports fell 1.4% month-over-month, including a 7.7% drop in shipments to the U.S. 
The Bank of England highlighted the UK economy’s resilience despite ongoing geopolitical risks. 

• China 
Inflation rose 0.1% year-over-year in June, marking the first increase in five months. However, producer prices fell 3.6% annually, the lowest level since July 2023. 

• Brazil 
The government is planning a return to international debt markets by year-end, following two successful bond issuances this year. 
President Lula responded to U.S. tariffs by announcing 50% tariffs on American products. 

• Mexico 
Headline inflation eased to 4.32% in June, while core inflation ticked up slightly to 4.24%. 
Auto production hit a record high in June, posting 4.8% year-over-year growth. 

“History offers a crucial insight about market crises: they are inevitable, painful, and ultimately surmountable.” — Shelby M.C. Davis 

Important events in the next week 

• U.S. inflation data – 07/15 
• U.S. industrial production – 07/16 

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Week of June 30 – July 3 

A short week marked by new trade agreements and mixed economic data across major markets. 

Robust employment, tax reform, and mixed global signals 
Here are the most relevant developments from the international scene this week: 

• United States 

• Nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside, with 147,000 new jobs added in June, beating expectations of 110,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%.
• The Senate approved President Trump’s fiscal plan, which includes new deductions and extends the 2017 tax cuts.  
• A new trade agreement was announced with Vietnam. 

• Europe 

• Eurozone inflation rose slightly to 2% year-over-year, in line with expectations. 
• The European Union signaled willingness to accept a general 10% tariff if the U.S. reduces duties in key sectors such as alcohol, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. 

• China 

• Manufacturing activity contracted for a third consecutive month, though at a slower pace. 
• The services sector grew at its slowest rate in nine months, amid weakening demand and fewer new orders. 

• Brazil 

• The Central Bank indicated that recent easing in inflation may allow for a reassessment of its monetary stance. The Selic rate remains at 15%, its highest level since 2006. 

• Mexico 

• Banxico highlighted the strength of the financial system following the intervention of three institutions under investigation for alleged money laundering. 
• Remittances totaled US$5.36 billion in May, a 4.6% year-over-year decline. 

“An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.” — Benjamin Franklin 

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

• United States: FOMC minutes release – 07/12 
• China: June inflation report – 07/09 

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Rate cut in Mexico, potential stimulus in China, and caution from the US defined the week. 

Week of June 23–27 

Investors closely watching monetary policy, oil prices, and inflation. A week marked by rate adjustments, mixed economic signals, and easing geopolitical tensions 

This week brought key developments in monetary policy, economic growth, and geopolitics. Here’s a country-by-country summary of the most relevant updates: 

• United States: Former President Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, easing oil prices. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirmed the likelihood of holding interest rates steady as tariff impacts are assessed. Q1 2025 GDP contracted by 0.5%, a deeper decline than expected, and consumer confidence fell again.  
  
• Europe: The Eurozone continues to show lackluster growth, though Germany posted signs of a manufacturing rebound. In the UK, the composite PMI edged up slightly due to improved new orders. 
  
• China: Citi raised its 2025 growth forecast to 5%. A new fiscal stimulus package worth approximately $70 billion is expected.
  
• Brazil: The Central Bank signaled a pause in its tightening cycle to assess the cumulative impact of previous rate hikes. 
  
• Mexico: Banxico cut the benchmark rate to 8%. Inflation rose to 4.51% year-over-year in the first half of June. The government issued $6.8 billion in debt maturing in 2032 and 2038. 

“Discipline is what separates an investor from a gambler.” – Peter Lynch 

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH 

• July 1 – US ISM Manufacturing Index release  
• July 4 – US markets closed in observance of Independence Day 

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Economic Radar 

Week of June 16–20 

A week of contrasts: mixed signals across growth, interest rates, and geopolitics 

This week was shaped by key central bank decisions, contrasting economic indicators, and renewed geopolitical tensions. Below is a summary of the most relevant developments by region: 

• United States: The Fed held its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50% and revised its projections: GDP growth was lowered to 1.4% (from 1.7%) and core inflation was raised to 3.1% (from 2.8%). While two rate cuts remain on the table for 2025, seven members now forecast no changes. In parallel, retail sales fell 0.9% month-over-month, and Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher following evacuation orders issued by Trump in Tehran. 
  
• Europe: The ECB maintained a flexible stance without committing to further cuts. In the UK, annual inflation stood at 3.4%, in line with expectations. The Bank of England kept its rate at 4.25%, signaling potential cuts if conditions allow. 
  
• China: The PBOC left benchmark rates unchanged. Retail sales surprised to the upside (+6.4% YoY), and industrial production grew 5.8% YoY. 
  
• Brazil: The Central Bank raised the Selic rate to 15%, marking the seventh consecutive hike. Authorities anticipate elevated financing costs for longer to contain inflation, projected at 4.9% for 2025. 
  
• Mexico: Investment fell 4% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025, marking the second consecutive decline. The IMEF projects the economy won’t regain momentum until 2027, amid uncertainty surrounding the judicial reform and USMCA renegotiation. 

In a highly uncertain environment, discipline and analysis remain the foundation of a sound investment strategy. 

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

• In the United States, Powell will present his semiannual monetary policy report 06/24 
• In the United States, GDP data will be released 06/26 

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Week of June 9–13 

Mixed inflation data, downward growth revisions, and easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. set the tone for the week’s global economic narrative. 
Here’s a brief summary of the most relevant developments across major economies in recent days: 

• United States: May inflation rose just 0.1%, staying below expectations. The Fed is not expected to cut rates before September. The World Bank lowered 2025 GDP growth to 1.4%. Gold and oil rose on geopolitical tensions. 

• Europe: Germany raised its 2025 growth forecast to 0.3%. An ECB policymaker said interest rates are well positioned, signaling a prolonged pause as inflation continues to ease. 

• China: Exports grew 4.8% year-over-year, but those to the U.S. fell 34.5%. Annual inflation declined, and producer prices also retreated.  

• Brazil: Inflation reached 0.26% in May, below the 0.33% forecast. The annual rate fell to 5.32%, reinforcing expectations of a pause in the Central Bank’s rate hike cycle. 

• Mexico: Inflation climbed to 4.42% year-over-year in the second half of May, its highest level in five months. The World Bank cut its 2025 growth forecast from 1.5% to 0.2%. 

Investing wisely isn’t about timing the market, but about staying informed, diversified, and avoiding impulsive decisions. 

KEY UPCOMING EVENTS 

• In the United States, the Fed policy announcement will take place 06/18 
• In the United States, Juneteenth will be observed (market closed) 06/19 

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