Uriel Loredo

Tariffs, inflation, and interest rates continue to shape the global economy.

Key market movements: Inflation, Tariffs, and More.

Week of March 3rd to 7th

Global markets are experiencing significant shifts in monetary policies, employment, and international trade. Below is a summary of the most relevant developments:

• United States: The manufacturing sector remains in mild expansion, while employment rose by 151,000 thousand jobs, and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. A 25% tariff on Canadian imports and a 10% tariff on Chinese products took effect, though some exemptions may apply in the coming months. Mexico secured an exemption for USMCA-listed products until April 2.

• Europe: Inflation in the eurozone fell to 2.4% year-over-year, but economic activity remains stagnant. The ECB cut its benchmark rate to 2.5%, marking six reductions since last June.

• Japan: Corporate investment spending contracted by 0.2% year-over-year in Q4 2024, the first decline in nearly four years.

• China: New tariffs of up to 15% on U.S. products will take effect on March 10. Additionally, the government set its GDP growth target at “around 5%” and announced further fiscal stimulus.

• Brazil: Annual inflation is projected to close at 5.65%, with the benchmark rate expected to reach 15% this year.

• Mexico: Remittances totaled $4.66 billion in January, reflecting a 10.8% monthly decline.

We will continue to monitor these events and their impact on the markets.

Important events in the coming weeks:

• March 10: Inflation data will be released in China.
• March 12 Inflation figures will be released in

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* Due to internal logistics reasons, the yields and prices are presented with the closing of March 6.

Key data of the week: inflation, economic growth, trade policies, and political developments worldwide. 

Key global events – Week of February 24 to 2 

This week, markets focused on inflation, economic growth, and trade policies. Here are the key developments across regions: 

• United States: Consumer confidence fell in February to its lowest level since 2021. Q4 2024 GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.3%, driven by strong personal consumption (4.2%). Trump announced—and later reversed—tariffs on Mexico and Canada, now set to take effect on March 4. PCE inflation, closely monitored by the Fed, stood at 2.6% year-over-year. 

• Europe: In Germany, the center-right bloc won the elections, with Friedrich Merz set to become the new chancellor. Trump also proposed a 25% tariff on European Union products, including cars and semiconductors. 

• Japan: Inflation in the services sector rose to 3.1% year-over-year in January, reinforcing expectations of further interest rate adjustments. 

• China: Analysts expect housing prices to decline by 2.5% in 2024, with a slow recovery anticipated in the coming years. 

• Brazil: February inflation increased to 4.96% year-over-year, the highest since October 2023. However, the country surprised with the creation of 137,300 formal jobs, significantly exceeding expectations. 

• Mexico: Inflation in the first half of February reached 3.74%, accelerating from late January. Additionally, the government is considering potential tariffs on Chinese products in response to U.S. trade policy. 

We’ll continue to monitor these developments and their impact on the markets. 

Important events in the coming weeks: 

• March 3: In the United States, the ISM Manufacturing Index will be released. 
• March 7: In the United States, employment figures will be announced.

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Week of February 17 to 21 

Below are some key points that reflect the current economic landscape in different regions: 

• United States: The Fed’s minutes show that members require further inflation reduction before lowering rates again. Governor Michelle Bowman emphasized the need for more data confirming inflation progress. Meanwhile, President Trump announced the possibility of imposing 25% tariffs on imports of automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals starting April 2. 

• Europe: Geopolitical tensions escalated after U.S. talks with Russia about a potential peace agreement in Ukraine, excluding Kyiv and the EU. In the UK, inflation reached 3% year-over-year, the highest in 10 months, surpassing the 2.8% expectation, driven by smaller drops in airline fares and higher fuel prices. 

• Japan: The economy accelerated in Q4 2024 with an annualized growth of 2.8%, surpassing the 1% forecast, driven by higher consumer spending and increased CAPEX. Exports in January grew 7.2% year-over-year, led by the automotive sector oriented toward the U.S. 

• China: President Xi Jinping reaffirmed his support for the private sector and urged companies to “show their talent.” The People’s Bank kept the one-year reference rate at 3.10% and the five-year rate at 3.60%. 

• Mexico: The Bank of Mexico reported that international reserves reached $232.724 billion, the highest level since 1995. However, the growth forecast for the year was revised down to 0.6% (from 1.2%) due to lower consumption and private investment. Preliminary figures indicate a 1.8% year-over-year growth in January, with only a 0.1% monthly increase. 

These events and figures will be essential for understanding the current economic context and its possible repercussions. If you would like more information or wish to discuss how these factors might impact your investment strategies, we are at your disposal. 

Important Events in the Coming Weeks 

• In the U.S., the second revision of Q4 2024 GDP will be released on 02/27 

• In the U.S., the PCE inflation data, closely followed by the Fed, will be released on 02/28 

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New tariffs, rising inflation, and Fed policies shape the global economic outlook.

Week of February 10 to 14 

President Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from several countries, including Mexico, Canada, and Brazil. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation rose 0.5% month-over-month in January and 3.0% year-over-year, exceeding expectations. Jerome Powell reaffirmed that the Fed will not rush to cut rates anytime soon 
 
Global highlights: 

• EU: Warned of countermeasures against new U.S. tariffs. 
  
• Germany: Exports increased, but industrial production declined. 

• UK: Unexpected 0.1% GDP growth in Q4 2024. 

• Japan: Wholesale inflation reached 4.2%, the highest in seven months. 

• China: Inflation saw its highest increase in five months, but manufacturing remains weak. 

• Brazil: Adopting a cautious approach to U.S. tariffs; the services sector ended 2024 with weak performance. 

• Mexico: Rate cuts may continue, while Moody’s warns of risks to the auto sector due to new tariffs. 

Markets will closely monitor the impact of these developments on global monetary policies and key industries. 

Important events in the coming weeks 

• In the United States, the Fed minutes will be released on 02/19. 

• In the United States, the Consumer Confidence report will be released on 02/21.  

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Global summary: U.S. employment, cuts in Mexico and Europe, and trade tensions.

Week of February 3 to 7

This week’s global economic highlights:

• United States: President Donald Trump temporarily suspended tariffs on Mexico and Canada, while the labor market shows signs of slowing down with 143,000 jobs created in January and an unemployment rate of 4.0%.

• Europe: Inflation in the Eurozone slightly increased to 2.5% year-over-year in January, while the Bank of England cut its rate to 4.5% and adjusted its growth forecast.

• Asia: Japan is evaluating rate adjustments to reach its inflation target, and China is facing a tariff exchange with the U.S., impacting its energy and manufacturing sectors.

• Latin America: Mexico lowered its interest rate to 9.5%, supported by an improvement in inflation, and Argentina announced the end of its currency controls by 2026.

We invite you to follow our updates to stay informed about how these events may influence global economic and financial trends.

Key events in the coming weeks:

• China: January inflation data to be released on 02/10
• United States: January inflation data to be released on 02/12

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